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Friday, 27 June 2008


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David, while I appreciate your effort to find a statistical method that purports to discount us HAFs. I seriously question the application of loess methodology. The method is very dependent on some of the starting parameters you chose and depending upon data density and how granular you decide to be can show pretty much any answer you want.
There is absolutely no reason to suggest that a straightforward linear regression is not meaningful when describing the average temperature change over the recent past unless, of course, it gives an answer you don't like. You can search out a statistical method that can produce any result desired. I am sure the natives of the northern climes (yes including polar bears) will take some exception the conclusion that things aren't, in fact, getting warmer. When you can explain why this summer will probably see the first time in modern history that the arctic ice pack will be non existent then I'll sign up for your voodoo stats.

"voodoo stats"

As in when is a 'hockey stick' not a 'hockey stick'?

(Unless you're involved in the HAF vs. the Rest of the World debate that might not make a lot of sense to you but all will be revealed later - when I've woken up properly!)

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