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Friday, 05 September 2008

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I was waiting for you Mr. Duff,

Not to pounce mind, just to see what you thought. I enjoy our conversations er, whatever.

Anyway, from my side of the pond, I still see it pretty close. I do admit the ol' geezer might've gone off his nut and done (in his choice of Pentacostalistin', pistol packin'-hot mama Palin) a pretty doggonned shrewd thing. He did get the gun-clinging dejected crowd fired up, locked and loaded to now get off the sofa and decide to vote.

As to your characterization of "rafter-raisin'?" Not sure yet. I was online with a few Conservative stalwarts from 23 states during the speech and there was a definite consensus commentary expressing firstly: a sense of (here in the US we'd say "say what?") anyway it equates to bewilderment.

Now I personally sit in a Southern state and I agree with a good deal of your analysis, with the possible exception of three Southern states, I doubt Mr. Obama does well in the region. We like NASCAR and women in bikinis who know both how to rapid fire an M-16 and combine it with obvious sighting technique. But the South lacks generally, in the electoral count area (Florida's recent illustration notwithstanding).

Some of the commentors who I was attempting to mediate noticed that in the Democratic Convention there appeared to be more "Boob-Jobs" whereas in the Republican Convention there appeared to be more "Face-Lifts." I don't know that there is any Scientific way to guage the ramifications in the ratios of the types of cosmetic procedures but I consider it (based on "some" personal observations that the "face-lifted" tend to vote more assiduously than the "boob-enhanced."

Perhaps I should apply for a research grant.

Now that I've lost my train of thought I suppose I should simply say Mr. Duff, I consider it still, a bit too early to make any bets. Predictions maybe.

Bets? I'd wait a bit.

Come, come, 'JK', "Who Dares Wins", as some rather terrifying chaps demonstrate occasionally! It's time, as we say over here, to put your money where your mouth is. My ability to make mighty prognostications, and then take even mightier prat-falls, is legend!

Your point concerning the 'boob job' vs. 'face lift' sections of the electorate is a shrewd one, and indeed, I think you are right that the 'golden oldies' (or the 'for-ever young'!) tend to be more reliable in their voting habits. And sorry to under-cut you but I'll do the research job for nothing!

I'm interested in which three southern states you think McCain will not do well. Also, what sort of percentage do the southern states have in the election?

By the way feel free to call me David.

Hey Dave, uh David,

Alabama, Virginia (named for your "Virgin" Queen-I think), of all places Florida and Mississippi may be in play. Virginia will be a "well if this or that happened"-has to do with entrenched DC folk living (and bothering to vote) and senior military versus their junior counterparts. Your own Virgin Queen I seem to recall, was a shrewd operator-JK bets McCain-but only for a tin of herring.

As to your offer to do any "research?" I would prefer to reserve any of the Democratic examinationeering for myself: you Sir are free to examine any members of the Right. Proceeds from any grant shall be divided according to "Waka" protocol, and any applicable International Law.

America is of course a young Nation, and of course it is so young that most to its' inhabitants do not realize that Americans live from Tierra Del Fuego to the Arctic. Chris Columbo didn't make the effort to build a counterpart to Hadrian's Wall.

(Which of course I, being a citizen of the US part of America-hereinafter "US"-mistakenly recognize rather than 1066.)

In my youth I found myself "rara avis" I chose to stand in the line of old folks and vote. Whether for good or ill I continued to stand in those lines, admittedly I did vote for Perot.

About 1980 a curious change occurred in US politics. In 1776 or thereabouts we, in the soon to be US considered a thing called "compromise" a pretty good thing to do. In 1980 the greater portion of our voting constituency transformed our mutual thinking from a compromise agreement into a "moral issue."

No one compromises on "moral issues."

JK tries very hard to hold his cards close to his vest. My friend David makes it very difficult for JK to remain observedly non-comittal, committed, whatever.

Mr. Duff- if you are willing to exchange pounds sterling at the rates which existed in say 1999 for my US coinage? I would definitely be willing to bet.

Provided you pay the freight charge.

David

I hear the Democrats are about to start a new voter registration campaign, They are going to sign up every moose in country, and maybe sneak a few in from Canada.

Your prediction seems a little early. I listened to the McCain's speech on the radio not TV. I thought the warm up's did better, but it was still a top notch speech especilly toward the end.

I started to listen to Obamas speech on the radio but fell asleep, I think his style needs the visual supports, to say nothing of an audince that is not sleepy to begin with.

But between McCain and Palin the Republians have the Audicity to Hope that they just might pull this one out, or least be in good postion for 2012.

David,

Please mind, I am not a professional anything, journalist, pundit, radio personality, late night talk show host, prostitute.

You asked some pointed questions. I asked in return, not you of course, the fifty-eight persons from the twenty-three states I previously mentioned.

Obama ?may? win Alabama, Mississippi, Virginia, maybe Florida.

My mediated folks have come to a conclusion. (This was private-and hopefully my firewalling and defenses prevailed.) "Face-Lift Voters?" McCain. Likely in the neighborhood of 16.5 million popular votes.

It's gonna get iffy at the end, please bear with me.

Dims are likely to poll 16.7 million popular votes, mostly due to the presence of Palin.

That is WITHOUT the Ron Paul voters who too many discount. The Ron Paul voters are loyal, young, underestimated, and most likely have been the recipients of either high school graduate presents such as boob-jobs or fast cars. Both sexes tend toward being totally dissatisfied with either major party.

The "Paulistas" see the Palin pick as, well this is a general audience audience site.

Ralph Nader, in all fifty states combined will garner 17 votes, all likely from the Cleveland area where electronic voting machine irregularities are known to exist.

Obama wins the popular vote by 200,062 voters but due to the Paul votes the decision is made by the Electoral College.

Paulistas' will support whichever party has the most supportive collegeistias.

Obama? Although capable of shooting three-pointers, no.

Biden? Although capable of differentiating between the South Pole from the North? Ultimately, no.

McCain? Cool for the young guys for farting in public while smiling. Not cool for the opposite due to the lack of a proper apology, and that damned smile.

Palin? Capable of ignoring the occasional SBD and she possesses an apparently pretty nice set of boobs. Also possesses a conceal/carry handgun license.

Supreme Court Judge Thomas writes affirmation.

Supreme Court Judge Bader-Ginsberg writes the dissent.

David.

I see the light.

Boobs?

Boobs.

Alas, 'JK', I already have one bet outstanding - a bottle of Scotland's finest against Jack Daniels's best - with my e-pal, 'Fallenmonk', a "good ol' boy" from Georgia but a hopeless Lefty. The little 'Memsahib' who rules this house, and me, with a rod of iron has forbidden any more betting. Well, she knows my woeful track record!

On consideration, I think it is probably as well for me to stick to the 'face-lifts' because checking on the 'boob-jobs' at my age might prove terminal!

Hank, get a grip! No sooner do I pronounce in favour of McCain than your blasted poll of polls graph suddenly shows Obama climbing like a rocket from Cape Canaveral, and McCain sinking faster than the pound sterling!

It must be the Duff effect!

The biggest advantage of the chart is that it is updated without any action on my part, and a point toward Obama comapred to the other main polls.

It tends to be a day behind the rolling daily polls (see the Rasmussen and Gallop links below the chart.) These put up a three day rolling average by 9AM Central or 3 PM Greenwich (?.) The Chart is showing data a little older than the date at the top.

Opps

I need to check the grammer when I change a sentence

Being a point toward Obama is not an advantage.

David,

Apologies for not getting back sooner. We've had "server problems" in Arkansas (I suppose that qualifies me for HillBilly status).

Everything you need to know about Palin:

http://www.slate.com/id/2199362/?GT1=38001

JK

Thanks, both, and the Slate link was very informative.

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