Like most old saws it has a grain of truth in it but only a grain. I am provoked into using it by the extraordinary time it is taking President Obama to make up his mind on the grand strategy to be used in regard to Afghanistan. I am one of the few who do not begrudge him that time because there is no immediate crisis and the decision - in essence whether to stay or go - needs to be carefully weighed. Even so, it does seem to have dragged on and on and I had assumed that the Afghan election might have been the cause of the wait and see approach. However, that stitch-up is done and dusted so I wondered what else might be the cause of delay. I wondered if perhaps all the diplomatic pieces have not yet been lined up despite 'HilBilly's' constant to-ing and fro-ing. A more likely reason for delay is that the American high command, civilian as well as military, is completely split. Confirmation of a sort can be had from a leaked memo indicating that the US ambassador in Kabul has come out strongly against re-enforcement because of his doubts concerning the Karzai government. His views carry considerable weight because he is a former soldier and thus understands the problem from all sides. The other factor plaguing Obama must be the intentions and the reliability of the Pakistan government and its military on the other side of the frontier. An American withdrawal would diminish their reputation but Obama could disguise it as the only option to extricate his country from the quagmire into which the Republicans under George Bush had led them. There are many more currents and counter-curents at play in this imbroglio than I have time to elucidate now and it is almost enough to produce a twinge of sympathy for statesmen - until, of course, one remembers how they fight tooth and nail to get the job. Needless to say, not the least of Obama's concerns will be his place and reputation in the history books depending on this decision!
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