So how stand things in 'plucky little Israel'?

As with most of the subjects about which I write on this blog my knowledge of Israel is minute, and that's putting it at its best!  So all the more reason for me to digest a very useful and measured impression of the country by Lazar Berman of The American Enterprise Institute.  He has recently payed a semi-official visit to Israel during which he was granted access to the Israeli 'establishment'.  The problems pressing in against this little nation are manifold and deadly serious.  I have already touched, in a post last week, on the most dangerous one that emanates from Iran and its nuclear capability.  Obviously, no-one was going to tell Mr. Berman if and when the expected attack will take place but there was absolutely no euphoria at even the the theoretical possibility.  All the top brass stressed the huge technical difficulties facing the Israeli air force with a relatively small number of planes plus an enormous distance to travel.  General opinion seemed to be that it should/could only be undertaken successfully in partnership with the Americans.  (With Obama in charge - fat chance!)  However, as one shrewd observer said some time ago, the chances of an Israeli strike will be at its highest when the Israeli's cease to talk about it!  No-one, according to Mr. Berman, is very sanguine about the prospects and they all realise that whatever the result there will be a huge price to pay in Israel.

Another, but internal, difficulty is that posed by the Haredim, the ultra-Right-wing, orthodox Jews who appear to be the mirror image of the worst sort of fanatical Islamists.  I have picked up reports elsewhere on the subject of their increasingly belligerent behaviour whereby they insist on segregation of women (not all bad, then ? - just kidding, ladies!) and the reduction of their status to that of domestic chattels.  According to Mr. Berman, Israeli society is pushing back against the pressure from this militant minority.

As for the so-called 'Arab Spring', opinion in Israel appears to be divided.  On the whole the Israelis think it better to maintain a low profile and avoid supporting one side or the other, an emminently sensible policy that should have been adopted by HMG.  As for the prospects of a long-term deal between Israel and the Palestinians - well, there aren't any!  No-one's going to cut any deals until the current, bubbling cauldron settles down again.

Altogether an interesting and informative article which might not be definitive but is well worth reading 

Comments

[JK]

Too breezy David:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/10/the_ticking_clock

[Jimmy]

There may be a bit of internal conflict in the Middle East for the time being but the end game for the Islamists is the destruction of Israel. Israel will be preparing for the next part of the conflict and probably know when and how it will start.

[Whyaxye]

My money is on Israel ratcheting up the tension so as to provoke Iran into a bungled retaliation that brings in the U.S. Even the Americans would probably prefer concerted effort to a "wild card" Israeli strike, as the latter would provoke Arab retaliation on a wider scale.

Either way, holidays in Eilat will not get over-booked in the coming months...

[Dom]

"...the Americans would probably prefer concerted effort to a "wild card" Israeli strike, as the latter would provoke Arab retaliation on a wider scale."

We can't be sure about that. Wikileaks, and commonsense, tells us that most of the Arab nations are secretly communicating with Israel, hoping for an attack. They despise Iran as much as the Israelis. Of course, they will later claim to be outraged, but it will all be a show.

[David Duff]

Dom makes a good point but also it is necessary to take the Shia/Sunni religious divide into account, as well.

[JK]

Not on my "normal computer" but I notice Dom's commenting so... I do so NOT enjoy these 'kiddie-sized' keyboards - anyway, an old link:

http://www.fpri.org/enotes/201102.helfont.wikileaks.html