I do realise that my forecasting skills are, shall we say, less than impeccably accurate! Even so, two things follow. First, being unembarrassable (well, the second-hand car trade does that to you) I shall continue to forecast with all the sublime confidence of a true dope! Second, like a clock I am bound to be right eventually!
So, bearing all that in mind, let me again forecast the end of the European Union as we know it within twelve months. Please note the careful use of the phrase "as we know it". I do not underestimate the ferocious perseverence of the Brussels apparat to go to extreme lengths in their fanatical desire for the Union to be preserved. We already have two examples of them over-throwing democracy in pursuit of their political aims and they will not be the last. Such is the general revulsion of an increasing number of European people against this creeping, useless and dangerous dictatorship that more and more of them will vote in politicans prepared to take action against Brussels and all that it stands for. As the two tectonic plates grind against one another one must expect some fairly massive political earthquakes. Standing behind them with financial taser guns in hand are the enforcers of the international financial community who, I sense, are rapidly losing patience with the whole tottering Potemkin village that is the European Union.
Just in the last few days the Italian apparatchik placed over the Italian people with the sole task of cutting the government's budget has admitted that he is unlikely to succeed. Likewise with the Greeks who in May have one last chance to vote and thus cling to the democracy they invented. Today we hear that even those über-Europeans, the Dutch, cannot agree on an austerity budget and the government has collapsed. The French, hitherto a Maginot line in defence of the European Union look as though they are about to raise the white flag and then change sides! And this morning, we learn that British government departments have been ordered to set aside funds for an 'emergency'. Hmmn! I wonder what 'emergency' they have in mind?
One wonders, with some trepidation, what Brussels will do. A Central Bank armed with the capability of issuing European bonds is highly likely and the Germans will be faced with a tortured decision - shame! That will lead inevitably to a proper (or to be accurate, an improper) European government with full fiscal powers. What else they might try is beyond thinking about. Have a nice day!