Frack me - this is serious!

It’s hard enough predicting the future but it’s just as hard predicting the outcome when the future becomes the now!  I confess to suffering severe ‘gobsmack’ when I read the editorial in the current edition of The Spectator (no link to the actual piece).  The opening paragraph gives you your first smack – unless you are an energy expert:

For decades, America has dreamed about becoming self-sufficient in terms of energy, and ending its reliance on unsavoury Arab regimes.  Now this dream seems within reach.  The International Energy Agency this week forecast that America is undergoing a fuel revolution, and that it will overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world’s biggest oil producer by the end of this decade.  [My emphasis]  By 2035, America should be able to meet all of its own energy needs.  Energy prices are already plummeting and global manufacturers have started to pullout of Europe and relocate to the southern states to cut bills.  An economic miracle is on the way.

This arises from the enormous and so far barely tapped shale oil fields from which oil and gas can be extracted by 'fracking', the use of water under immense pressure.  I confess immediately my inability to work out the full implications of this.  The Spectator helps by reminding us that the US Navy spends $80 billion – I’ll repeat that, shall I? - $80 billion a year patrolling the sea lanes in the Gulf in order to protect the free flow of oil.  How long they will keep that up when they have no need of the wretched stuff is anyone’s guess?  Of course, we will still need it, as will the Europeans, bedeviled as we are by a Green lobby whose stupidity is only exceeded by its wickedness.  Thus, we will be spending more and yet more on ridiculous and mostly useless wind farms and other fantasies from the ‘Green Fruitcake Fraternity’ as they do everything in their not inconsiderable power to stop any efforts to exploit the shale oil reserves in Lancashire which are lying there like a golden lake.

Still, it’s an ill wind that fails to blow off someone’s hat and give us all a laugh so two sets of rascals will feel a chill.  Obviously some of the worst regimes in the Middle East will come under enormous pressure as revenues drop, most especially, Iran.  Also, that nice Mr. ‘Pouty’ Putin, who live off the hog of petrodollars flowing in from the Caspian could slowly but inexorably find himself – and his people – reliving austerity times just when the Russian people were beginning to enjoy the ‘Good Life’.

Meanwhile, according to The Spectator, international companies are ‘up and offing’ to America to take advantage of cheap energy whilst ‘Dim’ Dave remains wedded to soppy Green policies that will ruin us all.  It is no consolation to know that the Germans are in an even bigger bugger's muddle over energy policy than us!  In the meantime China will take full advantage of lower energy costs and grow even more powerful so we must be grateful that if the USA does not turn fully socialist it should be able to keep ahead of China.

No doubt there are other eventualities and I just hope that in the West there are some clever and sophisticated geo-strategists working them out.  Well, a man can hope, can't he?

 

Comments

[dearieme]

Have you ever seen the great "bings" of West Lothian? They're spoil heaps from the days when you had to mine shale to get the oil out.

Google "shale bings": they are quite a sight.

[David Duff]

Never heard of them, DM, but they are extraordinary. I gather that they are fast disappearing as they are used for road construction/repair.

[Timbo]

I guess that the middle east countries will find new markets in India and China if the USA becomes self sufficient.

[David Duff]

I don't think so, Timbo, because China (and India) has such a huge land mass that it is likely to have considerable shale fields for itself, or even perhaps, enough to become an exporter itself! The main thing is that energy prices are set to fall - unless - and of course there is always an 'unless' - governments interfere and make it more expensive than it need be.

[Kevin B]

The shale oil and gas revolution in the US is currently taking place on private land largely out of the grasp of the Feds*.

The next four years of an Obama led administration could well slow down or even halt the fracking revolution, and since it will be the EPA and the like doing the dirty, Congress will get no say in the matter.

It's a bit of an exquisite dilemma for Obama and ValJar and their ilk. Go along with the fracking revolution and preside over a burgeoning economy with more wealth to spread around or follow their socialist and greeny leanings and tax and regulate it into submission while the economy slumps again.

* Well not out of the reach of the feds, nothing is out of their reach, but less easily stimied than things like ANWR and continental shelf developments or other stuff on federal land.

[Whyaxye]

The tectonic plates are shifting, and it is very worrying for the UK. Hopefully all that brown-nosing the Saudis will have kept us in their good books, and if we introduce a bit of Sharia Law here, that should help gain us a special price.

Eventually, the Lancashire field will run out, but I reckon it should be aggressively exploited without regard to environmental concerns. I've been there a few times, and most of it is nasty. Earthquakes in Blackpool? Who cares?

[JK]

You've no idea David how your posting on "fracking" as The Great Hope is far more complicated than the author you've chosen seems to be aware of. Near-term our more recent immigrants to Arkansas (mainly from the industrialized North - having moved down here to retire) have the idea that "fracking is a nightmare."

[Why they didn't pick up a History book and check where & when the largest magnitude earthquake in US History occurred - I haven't a clue.]

Yes yes I know - but it's been awhile since I've posted more than just a single link. Cut me some slack. Now, this first one may take some moments to load (it shows shale-oil production in Arkansas):

http://www.aogc2.state.ar.us/AOGConline/

If you wish to know where The New Madrid quakes of 1811-1812 were - right where the red area meets with the four states boundaries with the epicenter being in extreme NE Arkansas:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/arkansas/hazards.php

Here are EQs from the last six months:

http://www.ceri.memphis.edu/seismic/recenteqs/index.html

"And why," you ask, "Is this earthquake stuff pertinent?"

It isn't actually - but one must be aware of Arkansas' seismic history. Unfortunately, just as the oil companies decided it was worthwhile to sink shafts the Earth decided "heh heh, I think I'll take another spell of rumbling!"

[David Duff]

Very interesting, Kevin, I shall be watching events. I note that the head of their EPA is in difficutlies with so-called 'private' e-mails she sent under a pseudonym to avoid FOI requests.

I have nothing against Blackpool, 'W', but if fracking sinks Liverpool I'm all for it!

I'm sure there are difficulties with fracking, JK, there being no such thing as a free lunch but the 'experts' seem agreed that it is has enormous potential - and they really do mean ENORMOUS - and if an earthquake does hit Arkansas will you notice?

[JK]

"Quakes" actually are fairly common here David - not necessarily of the seismic variety though - there are quite frequently, The Whales of Wal-Mart traversing the aisles on the hunt for more Twinkies.

Far as I personally am concerned - nothing wrong with Arkansas a Richter 6+ couldn't fix - then we native Southerners could get back to pumping oil.

[Yvonne]

I only wish I have money to buy some of the low priced housing in and around Blackpool. UK does not have any choice but to exploit the fracking potential around that area. It will happen sooner or later.

[David Duff]

Quite right, Yvonne, and welcome to D&N.

[JK]

Yvonne?

Just your name says it - not a Gordon Brown, nor Balls, not a Cameron What the hell ... no David Duff even an expert.

Have you a passport? Is there any way Yvonne, you can keep Gordon Brown and Piers Morgan off David Duff's Learjet?

Tell you what Yvonne, ... and I think you might read DiploMad ... we each agree (apparently) David's full of ... er, ... well he's from near Somerset - that'd be Liverpool or somewhys geographically our Detroit reckon there'd be any way you could get yorself added to "David's Funnie List?"

Just reckoning, heck you might neither be Republican or even Southern.

[David Duff]

JK, I think the earth just moved for you, well at least, according to you it never stops moving in 'Arkie'! Anyway, stop hitting on my lady guests and behave yourself!

[JK]

"The Geopolitics of Shale is republished with permission of Stratfor."

[David Duff]

Thanks, JK, in'erestin' stuff! (How's my accent?)

[JK]

'Cept fer ther missin' "T" in'nyr intrestren pert near right smart hillbillyianese.

On ther basis o'dat we'uns'll issue yer passport - providin' yer'll ensure both that Blair and Brown fellers' passports dern't show up so's to be on our'n TV screens no more.