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Saturday, 01 March 2014

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No "plucky little Ukraine" then?

Alas, no, although their pluck is not in doubt.

The trouble is, every time the White House Plonker threatens Putin with a fate worse than death, and then nothing happens means we are moving towards a situation when American threats have to frighten Putin. And they are not going to are they?

Also, the Ukrainian president, the one in Russia, was democratically elected. No doubt he was an unpleasant sort of idiot, just like Morsi in Egypt. But he was elected, just like Morsi, and the EU etc said it was a fair election.

I don't think enticing western Ukraine into the EU is a good idea. The place is full of deeply unpleasant people, many of whom would just like to live on the Somerset/Dorset border.

No room left on the Somerset/Dorset border for deeply unpleasant people, BOE, we're full up! As to your main point, the fact that Obama avoided any direct threats to Putin (apart from something vague about there being "costs") was a wise move on his part. I agree about not "enticing" Ukraine into western Europe but if they choose to come then so be it. The tricky times will come when the Russians, themselves, want to come into western Europe!

It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Russia might get a bloody nose against Ukraine if it tries to use force. The performance of the Russian armed forces in the first Chechen war and in Georgia was abysmal. In the Georgian conflict, the Russian air force couldn't even assert air superiority - the Georgian air force flew at will! And Russian ground tactics were so ponderous, whole Russian tank columns were successfully ambushed - one lost 25 out of 30 tanks.

And if Putin gets a bloody nose, how long can he last now he's failed so badly in the middle east and is so isolated on the world stage?

SoD

The last time I watched the TV news, Putin's ally Assad was still in power. In fact, he seems to be making progress retaking his country. The most dangerous man in the world is in Washington - he is going to get us all killed!

I don't suppose, SoD, that the Russians will be particularly sophisticated in their military approaches, on the whole they don't 'do' sophistication but then again when you are as huge as they are, you don't need to! My **guess** is that 'Vlad' is unlikely to be in any trouble from the home front, the Russian people, patriots down to their woolly socks, will be right behind him. And I agree with BOE that so far things seem to be going his way in Syria - and we must thank him for it because I'd rather have a simple gangster like Assad in charge than that bunch of radical Islamic nut-cases who, when they have finished murdering each other, will try to murder us!

See this scenario: -

(1) Putin piles into Ukraine and actually loses the war (as the Russians did in the First Chechen War), or is fought to a standstill half way across Ukraine with 1,000's of dead and 10's of thousands wounded, or somewhere in between, with universal global condemnation;
(2) His, and all of his mafia's, stolen and exported assets are seized;
(3) The Iranians (now our friends, not his), and the Saudis start pumping oil, and the US starts pumping shale, like they're going out of fashion, halving international energy prices.

No regime change in Russia then, a la Ukraine? Russ patriotism for Putin sustained?

SoD

"And I agree with BOE that so far things seem to be going his way in Syria - and we must thank him for it because I'd rather have a simple gangster like Assad in charge than that bunch of radical Islamic nut-cases who, when they have finished murdering each other, will try to murder us!"

Without Iranian support, things won't go his way in Syria. The Iranians have turned away from Putin and towards the West, so much so that Putin has made overtures to the Saudis. How friendless must you be to try to court your old friend's enemy? The Saudis and Iranians want nothing to do with Putin. The West is squatting on both of them nicely right now.

And that's just what we want, because it means neither Assad nor the Hairies can win in Syria, so none of them will be coming home to murder us any time soon.

SoD

I'm not so sure he's interested in the western half of Ukraine, it's the east that's his main concern. If he grabs that to home applause he can spend the next few years subverting the western half. The unknown factor, of course, is the current Ukrainian army who, if their political masters are foolish, might hurl themselves upon the Russians - then all bets are off!

And you don't think the Western half of Ukraine wouldn't be subverting the Eastern half at the same time, filling Russian body bags and upsetting Pussy Riot and the Committee of Soldiers Mothers?

And here's what will become a household name in the world, and like Spitfire and Longbow is to us, an object that will be at centre of Ukrainian future patriotic pride and legend: -

https://www.google.co.uk/#q=stugna-p

Putin will lose any war in Ukraine. The kind of people who won't be dispersed by sniper fire when manning the barricades, when combined with a weapon like that, repel invaders and create new and independent nations, vassals of no-one.

SoD"

Never mind all that, why don't you ever pick up your 'phone when your father rings?!!!

On second thoughts, don't answer that!

Some few days ago LibertyBelle put a link up I think is useful:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/

& for once I'm finding myself disagreeing with SoD. Crimea will pretty much, be a "relative" cakewalk. The Geography is so easy to blockade/partition.

Now Ukraine proper is a horse of a different color.

Not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier, I fear.

Or put it another way. Last time we fought in Crimea, it was to prop up Johnny Turk. That proved to be a bad bet.

Exactly so, H!

No need to put a Brit foot in Ukraine.

If they have enough tanks to put this lot into storage, Putin won't step outside Crimea.

Those vehicles are the most ancient T-72's that Ukraine has scrapped. The rest - upto 1302 - are in reserve. They have somewhere in the region of 2,500 modern main battle tanks in the frontline. To put it in context, all the hard earned wedge you stuffed into the MOD over the years has yielded only 220 Challenger 2 main battle tanks in the entire British Army. See Wiki on the Ukrainian armed forces: -


T-72
 Soviet Union
1,302
(stored as reserve)

Putin's regime won't survive any attack on Ukraine. And soon the partisans will start up in Crimea, so we'll see how long it takes before Pussy Riot and the Committee of Soldiers Mothers call a halt.

SoD

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