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Monday, 29 August 2016

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When the mad women went to that Italian island the other day that housed the Marxist father of the EU with her two pals Hollande and Renzi did they go to decide on how best to end the disaster that the EU has become. Did they go to admit defeat and will call for the end of the vanity project. They say not and say their aim is to rejuvenate it but there was no substance to that statement. Have they seen the writing on the wall? I hope so as it's time to put it and us out of our misery. It is possible the EU has gone full circle by starting and ending on that island.

Two key problems need dealing with: -

1. The Jerries don't want to talk about Brexit until article 50 is activated, whereupon a 2 year count down begins.

From Blighty's perspective, this scenario is described by a wonk somewhere as "Like switching off the engines of an aircraft - you want to know where the landing site is first". The Jerries don't of course, because they want to see Blighty crash and burn, "Pour (dis)encourager les autres".

And before anyone says "It's in the Jerries interests to see a safe Brexit, their markets for BMW's etc.", no it isn't. The devaluation of the pound has already screwed their exports to the UK, and further devaluations will do so even more, so they've nothing left to lose in exports to Blighty. They do have "Les autres" to lose politically, and thereby the Euro, which currently sees their own currency undervalued and therefore a perpetual booster of their exports and a surplus budget generator for them. That's worth much more to them than selling BMW's to Blighty.

2. The disunity in the Tory party over "hard" and "soft" Brexit leading to Tory meltdown.

Well, I don't think I have to elucidate or expand on that one when one can see what the alternative is, do I?

So here's SoD's solution: -

Produce two Brexit plans. One "hard" and one "soft".

The "hard" one would be the plan that comes into being if the Krauts let the two year count down run its course in their attempt to make us crash and burn.

So it has all the negotiations with the ex-colonials, China, et al already as advanced as they can be, or if possible, concluded. During the 2 year count down, if the EU will engage on this as well as "soft" Brexit (see next) then include them too, or take the WTO terms and conditions with the EU.

This time, let's have a "hard" Brexit plan ready and waiting, and not assume that the "soft" Brexit plan will work.

The "soft Brexit" plan will be for tariff free, and "non-tariff barrier" free, access to the single market, with minimal membership cost, and with UK immigration controls. Good luck with that one, but you never know.

How does this solve the two problems above?

Firstly it softens the Jerries' attempt to crash and burn us. To follow the airplane analogy, it's like we prepare another landing strip that, although rough and bumpy compared to the runway, will never-the-less avoid crash and burn.

Secondly, it splits the two Tory factions into valid, openly competing, teams. Each can concentrate on trying to perfect its own plan. The judge and jury will be the outcome of the EU negotiations, instead of being internal politics and strife in the Tory party and Blighty as a whole.

Unfettered by each other, each team can progress its plan more efficiently. Whichever team fails at the 2 year mark cannot blame the other. Each team will have had its own chance to win the deal that goes through with the EU.

I would even extend the teams to include opposition members, somehow. So after the landing, on whichever runway it is, if it turns out to be a disaster - country bumpkin violence in the case of "soft" Brexit, or economic crash and burn in the case of "hard" Brexit - the Labour party cannot blame the Tories - because they were in on the deal too.

Now, of course the Jerry governmental faction will smell this rat in "ein augenblick"! They'll claim that there are not the resources to conduct two negotiations, etc., etc., to try and scupper our crash and burn avoidance plans.

But so will the factions who don't want Blighty to "hard" Brexit - who don't want to be left exclusively at the mercy of the Jerries, who do still want their exports markets with Blighty, etc. It will be up to our two teams to fully exploit their opportunities and friends in EU to counter this counter by the Jerries.

If the Jerries succeed in conflating the negotiations to one plan, then it must be "hard" Brexit. The "engineless aircraft with no runway in sight" analogy suffices to justify this. The "soft" Brexit team will only have itself to blame for not ctivating their "soft" Brexit colleagues in the EU sufficiently. So they cannot bemoan and agitate against the "hard" Brexit team.

SoD

SoD you have lost sight of the fact Jerry will not want tariffs on top of a devalued pound that way the Junkers(I like the pun) will certainly crash and burn not the Lancaster. Many forces will be pulling and tugging as to how Brexit should be handled. In the end something will be cobbled together not perhaps to anyone's complete liking but the UK will at least be a winner as it will be out of that major car/plane crash that is the EU and if it is done properly she does not have to be the only one. If Brussels and the rest wish to cut off their noses to spite their faces then so be it.

According to the BBC, Theresa May has stated there will be no Brexit negotiations until after article 50 has been invoked. By then the economic consequences of the vote could be taking effect. This would not put her in a strong position with either the EU or the British public. Be ready for interesting times.

I'd also like to take this opportunity, on behalf of all sane Americans, to thank all right wing Brits, represented by Nigel Farage, for "helping" Donald Trump campaign before multitudes of puzzled Mississippians who might or might not have understood a word he said. With advice from a sophisticated pol like Nigel how could The Donald go wrong?

How's the weather on planet Zog this time of year SoD?

Bob.

You might be surprised to hear the seventeen Mississippians I spoke directly to, to a man well at least the eleven of them which were men, six were women (not a transgender among them so I can't say it was Mississippi 'universal')

But anyway there were words exchanged and each says to me, "Thank God they're finally sending us people we can understand!"

Farage wasn't abit of a problem - it was The Damn Yankee Trump they could barely understand.

Trump will carry Mississippi by the way. "Hillary-speak" fares no better.

JK, it is amazing how easily traditional Southerners understand actual English when spoken by an Englishman. I suspect there may be a deep "trust factor" involved. Speaking of the race between the felon and the clown, isn't it interesting that we have managed to wind up with two people from NY-close together-running for office and telling the rest of America what they think?

Me thinks...I read that in Shakespeare somewhere....something big is going to break regarding this mud wrestling spectacle. Maybe both candidates will just keel over dead during the first "debate".

Just another example of how Blighty's pols comprehension of a negotiating position is so inept, and just how completely "Perfidious Albion" has lost her claim to that name: The Le Touquet agreement.

Here's the similarly delusional DT: -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/08/30/france-would-suffer-more-than-uk-if-it-ended-calais-deal/

No, France is not worse off scrapping this agreement. It is considerably better off scrapping the agreement.

The hoards of immigrants who will inundate France will not be stopping off to enjoy the local delights, they'll all be heading to Blighty.

In fact France could become the greatest people trafficker in the world. Why wouldn't the French authorities turn a blind eye to anyone offering to transport the immigrants to Calais and thence on to Blighty?

And the DT makes a second mistake by considering the Le Touquet agreement separate from the Brexit matter, and therefore not part of any vengeful option from the EU as a whole. Imbecilical! The first thing the French will do is offer their transportation services around the rest of the EU in exchange for favours in their internal politics with Brussels:

"Hello Mr Orban (repeat for each and every EU national leader with an immigrant problem), would you like to export your immigrants? If we offer that will you open the borders again? Coz we've got this perfect destination for them ..."

The seasoned Ostfront SS negotiators of the EU, France, and Germany are going to massacre May and her possie.

It's going to be toe-curlingly embarrassing.

SoD

Yeah Whitewall I'd agree. For the most part well, there's the one exception at least to my mind as to that Englisher-speak eh, wha's thet he keeps agoin' on an' on' an' on about?

It's SoD.

I'm plumb worried he's tipping near clean off the ledge since nearabouts June best I can figure. Reckon one of us D&N readers might let on to David that maybe it's time he and the Memsahib call in a specialist?

JK,

I watched Farage's speech again. He's a good speaker, and the crowd no doubt understood him easily. I might have been thinking of 50 years ago when I lived in the South for a few years. Since then, thanks to national media, Southerners in places I've been lately sound like Midwesterners. Trump speaks like a 4th grader. Anyone older than 10 should be able to understand him - words if not logic. What struck me during the repeat watch was how many more of Farage's remarks could have been made by Bernie Sanders than Trump.

SoD. Explanation of how to deal with Frogs.

http://raedwald.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/time-to-give-french-britannic-shrug.html

Of course, it would require someone this side of the channel with some guts. How about Farage for Min of Migration?

Ok JK, here's summat offtopic: -

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Terra-Incognita-What-if-no-one-wants-to-win-the-Syrian-war-466365

Hurrah for the Israelis. They've spotted the beautiful truth of the Syrian war: No-one wants to win it, no-one should win it, so no-one's going to win it.

It's a never-ending self-service extermination camp for the world's Islamist nutters!

"Oi vey" to that!

SoD

Yeah SoD, the Israelis were all along the ones to keep eyes on. I'd have to get back into my logs and then, take some (likely considerable) time to put something resembling "a comprehensive study" [no David, & remember my spelling is, to borrow from Andra immaculate so no, I'm NOT saying "a comprehensible study"]

Anyway SoD, one really ought to've been paying attention to what the Israelis were doing meeting with the Russians WHEN the basings of IDAF bomber-capable units were agreement-allowed to base in Azerbaijan [2012?] in spite of, all that fuss the Russians were making over Armenia.

Hmmm ... lemme see ... Well; it is a little dated and 'some of the realpolitik' has meaningfully shifted [I've just skimmed it SoD, not even reached the concluding paragraphs I must point out

https://theuglytruth.wordpress.com/2012/03/31/israels-secret-staging-ground/

One thing I'd ask of you Loz were you to come back and ask any "cautious things" - no delicate subject matter that might have the appearance of anyone we might be aware of who, in real life, earned a place on WikiLeaks?

No matter that somebody was never cognizant (apparently) that numbers are ALWAYS lowballed?

& Owing to the above link maybe misleadingly (Bob?) some to think it possible I'm somehow anti-something when the reverse is the more likely ...

"Putin's Visit and Israeli-Russian Relations is republished with permission of Stratfor."

(JK has since severed all ties ... well, except for a few email contacts, with Stratfor. Amicably I ought add.)

Ah Jeez JK, that's as incomprehensible as what SoD wrote.
Get a grip, both of you.

JK,

What Andra said.

One thing that might improve comprehension is to limit (better -- eliminate entirely) the asides within the asides within each sentence.

Just a little helpful suggestion. No disrespect to stylistic preferences intended.

Perhaps equally TBH, speaking in the third person as well?

Ye know not wot ye ask!

JK,

Your speaking in the third person doesn't confuse me. Gen. Douglas MacArthur did it, so why shouldn't JK?

Yes but MacArthur was a self appointed deity.

Robert,

Are you implying that JK isn't? :)

Jk is a work in progress...slow progress!

http://www.encyclopediaofarkansas.net/encyclopedia/entry-detail.aspx?entryID=2768

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