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Wednesday, 03 January 2018

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Duffers - not from the traditional school of diplomacy as taught to the paragons (ahem) of the Foreign and Colonial office, but in sprit if not in appearance it is rather closer to what is actually required than O'bama's "well if you jolly well insist on doing that I will have to stamp my foot and then possibly do something else, but only if you're really naughty, and then again I might not anyway, and whatever happens we have RULED OUT THE USE OF FORCE."

It is an odd way to do things, but diplomatic appeasement has failed for 30 years.

I would rather read his twitters than what the msm would vomit about him

You can bet all your possessions he won't stfu, David. Trump's ideas about the presidency include that he can say anything and that he doesn't have to change, everyone else does.

Before it's all over the right might wish Hillbilly had won. The House Republicans would be having a jolly good time ginning up dozens of investigations and blowing enough hot air through Fox News and the other usual suspects that we wouldn't be suffering the current deep freeze. Other world leaders wouldn't be openly critical and dismissive of the US, and we wouldn't be withdrawing from our leadership role. For example, polls show that over half of Brits think Trump's state visit should be cancelled.

Trump, his US approval rating always somewhere between 30-40%, the lowest in modern history, has made Republicans toxic in much of the country and stirred up a determined resistance. Republican strategists predict a bloodbath in the midterms. We might even see the return of relatively liberal Republicans including Never Trumper Mitt Romney. Fasten your seat belt.

I hope the Don does Kim Wrong-Un good 'n' proper. News is mighty boring just now. It's like when Game of Thrones goes off air between seasons.

I notice there's even been talk of Brazilian Ladies Beach Volley Ball - flippin' 'eck, funny how that one always resurfaces, a sure sign D&N is running out of fuel!

And when are those Javelins gonna arrive in Ukraine? Can't wait to see if the top attack mode knackers T-72's and T-90's on a reliable basis. It's a bit of an animal ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5BXArdVlNA

That'll really piss on Vlad's Donbass fireworks. He's way too smug these days. Defo needs taking down a peg or two.

And then there's the B-word. I feel all refreshed and ready for some serious Remainer action this year, I'm warnin' y'all!

Bring it on.

SoD

"Before it's all over the right might wish Hillbilly had won."

N o t p o s s i b l e.

"Trump has made Republicans toxic in much of the country and stirred up a determined resistance."

By "much" Bob, how do you mean it? Not geographically surely?

https://www.city-journal.org/html/fractured-west-15611.html

"Republican strategists predict a bloodbath in the midterms."

History tends to assert some version of that statement Bob but, given the number of seats the Dems will defend as opposed to the number the Repubs; I think the term "bloodbath" a bit over the top.

While I don't personally care for Ol' Corndog Michelle Bachmann if the rumors of her running to take Franken's place at the trough turn out - I think there'll be a more clarifying bit o' politicking than those we've "enjoyed" so far ... Alabama, what was it Virginia[?] and that other place.

(If Bob - you're unfamiliar with how we Respectables here on D&N christened her Ol' Corndog ... give me a shout an' I'll do my best archiv-diving to allow you to wet your pants!)

Oh heck Bob, what with the global warming NOT here in Arkansas ...

http://duffandnonsense.typepad.com/duff_nonsense/2011/08/its-michele-by-several-inches.html

Missred, did I understand you to say you "root Army"?

Trump's policy is to create uncertainty. The sack of blubber in North Korea must be looking at his big red button and wondering just what will happen if he presses it.

As to opinion polls, I would thought by now that we would have learnt they can not be trusted. They reflect the opinions of the person(s) who are financing them.

Spot on BOE.

JK, I am an Army Brat, born and raised, and going back to the founding of West Point. Yes, I "root Army". My brother did join the Navy so at least the yearly battle is fun.

Well admittedly Miss Red, only my own Dad's wing of the family went Navy. His Dad's five brothers (and generations past to 1748) went the way your's did. As did my Mum's - with the exception of a sole first cousin near my age - thereby receiving land grants courtesy of Andy Jackson's tarnishing of the British Army's reputation roundabouts N'awleans.

But as you say, "fun."

Steve Bannon is the loudest rat scurrying for a life boat. Read about it in the conservative Washington Examiner:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/steve-bannon-describes-trump-tower-meeting-with-russians-as-treasonous-report/article/2644822

Trump's strategy re North Korea is to taunt the tubby tyrant oppressing the country with references to the size of his tallywacker. Besides the withering "button" remark he made himself more flaccidly clear by calling Kim "little rocket" man. Such is the deep understanding and finesse of our president in international affairs. And anyone who's ever seen Asian porn knows he's right.

JK,

I don't expect people to suddenly understand science, but do have to look at myself on the rare occasions I still shave. Michelle Bachmann would be a gift to Democrats, but Republicans probably won't run her. And forget about larger land area determining political outcomes. Most of the population lives in cities and most cities lean toward Democrats. Because of the way our government and election system are designed things are about 50/50 for the time being, but Trump is changing that, maybe for a long time.

Lesson about appeasing: http://www.thediplomad.com/2018/01/at-movies-darkest-hour.html#comment-form

"Because of the way our government and election system are designed things are about 50/50 for the time being, but Trump is changing that, maybe for a long time."

With just mid-term elections in mind Bob, I tend to agree (with significant reservations) however, I have yet to discern (the Prez election recognized for now, an outlier) any durable "Trump Effect."

Lemme see if I can copy and paste a shrewd observation noticed from yesterday's ArkBlog - we've got an ... uhm "odd" contender challenging our incumbent Governor:

"Folks.....laugh and make fun all you want. But I've been trying to tell you for months, people around here and areas like this (rural, religious, minimum income, Fox News educated) LOVE Jan Morgan. She's attractive, speaks well, is accessible, rides a Harley, carries a gun everywhere and can probably shoot better than most men. They are familiar with her because she appears on Fox News. I'd be surprised if her poster isn't hanging above a few fellows' beds."

"Maybe she doesn't translate well in Little Rock or downtown Fayetteville, but outside the more sophisticated bubble, this woman is going everywhere in the back country, telling folks what they want to hear. Many in these areas see Asa as just a little too "citified". It's ARKANSAS y'all!"

"Sure, we've slept since November, 2016, but hopefully you remember how we laughed at the absurdity of Donald Trump being elected president. Discount the rural population, the "average Joes" like Hillary did and you have Trump 2.0. Jan Morgan being elected governor of this state is nowhere near as unlikely as we assumed Trump was."

"As I've said before, someone better be paying attention."

https://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2018/01/02/the-jan-morgan-experience

There's a newer post on that site Bob, you'd fit right in with the majority of commentors thereon Bob. ... JK doesn't comment there, too many weirdos but, occasionally I'll drop a non-political tidbit to one of the editors there.

How does one deal with an adolescent? By asserting one's authority? Or by offering sweets?
Sweets have been offered many times without result.
Prior to asserting authority one first has to prove it.
The Kims are difficult to deal with because they reject all norms. Hence they cannot be dealt with by normal measures.

David, Trump knows the score and a Happy New Year to all.

SoD?

Your memory of "all that stuff" is, ...

https://audioboom.com/posts/6576917-tales-of-the-new-cold-war-when-ukraine-was-moscow-s-red-line-part-2-of-2-stephen-f-cohen-nyu-princeton

Remember Lawrence, Victoria Nuland is still available for process.

JK,

Interesting audio article.

A small state with an incompetent executive, on the borders of three tectonic plates of real power - EU, US, Russia - tries to go indie and play with the big boys, and gets ground into pieces.

Now where else have I been hearing about that recently? Oh yes. I wonder if I should be getting some practice in on a Javelin simulator? Shouldn't take too long. "Fire and Forget" is just too easy, not like the Milan's we used to fumble about with, guiding the ruddy missile onto the target in the cross hairs while the world and his uncle takes pot shots at you - only to see the reactive armour blow it shreds because it it didn't have a tandem charge and couldn't do top flight.

Get some, Ukies. The fact that Putin wants the peace agreement signed and implemented means his nuts are in the Don's porky fingered grip. As the Rooskie body bags start filling up, and Poroshenko keeps his ink off the parchment, Putin will feel the squeeze, yessireee.

And if he goes for invasion, a well practised soldiery and a big shipment of Javelins would spell disaster for mother Russia.

Putin wanted a frozen war. The Don's men just turned up the temperature gauge. Whether Putin thaws or roasts, it's a win-win for the West.

SoD


It is amusing how the chattering classes are going on about their fear of nuclear show down with NK. These people are mostly young or are repeating what is expected within their bubble. There may be a showdown of some kind with Fat Boy, but it won't be nuclear.

The Cuban missile crisis in 1962, now that was something else. We were all afraid for good reason.

JK,

Here are some maps that explain voting patterns:

http://www.businessinsider.com/2016-election-results-maps-population-adjusted-cartogram-2016-11/

The most explanatory is the fifth one down.

I agree about small town and rural voters, the candidates they like and the reasons why. I also think they have a legitimate case about being forgotten, but don't understand who's actually doing them dirt. Republicans are a lot better at politics and PR than Democrats.

The corndog pic raised the hair on the back of my neck.

"Before it's all over the right might wish Hillbilly had won."

Think of that: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton; these were our choices. The problem is not who won; the problem is that the Republic, which drifts amendment by amendment toward raw democracy (can a battle to eliminate the Electoral College be far off?) is providing an instructive lesson, to future students of history, on all the liabilities of democracy that the Founders, Tocqueville, and everyone else of their era feared.

No matter what had happened in November of 2016, the crisis of comity in America, and the bitter, salt-the-earth struggle of faction, was only going to get worse.

Imagine a Federal government so small, with such limited functions, that there really isn't enough there to fight over -- instead of a bloated Leviathan that is the source of all blessings, and the seat of all power, control of which becomes an existential struggle. The Founders imagined just that -- but their time has passed, and everything they dreaded, and and strove to the fullest extent of their genius to prevent, has now come to be.

At this point, we might as well just pass around the popcorn, enjoy the show, and think hard about what we might build for our children once this whole thing has played itself out.

"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." - Winston Churchill, 11 November 1947

Just because Churchill said something, doesn't mean it's true.

"It is not given to human beings, happily for them, for otherwise life would be intolerable, to foresee or to predict to any large extent the unfolding course of events. In one phase men seem to have been right, in another they seem to have been wrong. Then again, a few years later, when the perspective of time has lengthened, all stands in a different setting. There is a new proportion. There is another scale of values."

- Winston Churchill, eulogy for Neville Chamberlain, November 12, 1940

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