Do you find the Middle East confusing? If so I can welcome you to a 'yuuuuuuge' but, alas, not very distinguished, or even exclusive, club which includes most, if not all, so-called Middle East 'experts'! Understanding the innate convolutions of this region, of course, is not helped by the fact that virtually all of the main participants are 'born again' lying-liars of the first water! In addition, many of them are actually, and technically, 'bonkers'! To make matters worse, what I call the 'outside interferers' suffer with exactly the same mix of ignorance and confusion.
Even so, given the possible (probable?) horrors likely to erupt one of these days, it is important to at least try and understand what is happening and rather than holding up one of your wetted fingers and turning slowly in circles in an attempt to judge from which direction the wind is blowing, I suggest that you simply watch Israel!
If anyone has half an idea of what is going on it is the Israelis and given the fact that they are probably the most intelligent race on earth (which is not saying that much!), and also that they face instant and total eradication if they get it wrong, then my advice is watch what they do! In particular, watch carefully in mid-May when 'The Donald' will make up what passes for his mind when he decides what to do with the US/Iranian (non)deal first stitched together by that master strategist-not, 'Obamarama'.
That is when things will become, er, interesting!
ADDITIONAL: For a brief summary of how well the Israelis arrange matters carefully, intelligently and with spot-on accuracy, do read this report from Zero Hedge.