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Tuesday, 10 July 2018

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Cheer up Duffers, it's just politics as usual. There's no point in worrying about it.

It seems likely to me that the Brussles lot will insist on a few additional humiliations and then say ok, at which point it will behove parliament to give her her marching orders. Will it? Difficult question.

We know we can rely on the so-called lords to continue the betrayal but the commons is slightly harder to predict.

Anyway remember that our country, like all countries, became great through the merits and qualities of its people and not their political class. The Brexit vote was a great reminder of that.

I think Diplomad has this about right:
http://www.thediplomad.com/2018/07/trump-heads-to-melting-europe.html

Which is worse?

1) May clinging on to power because there are insufficient numbers of committed Brexiter Tories, and presenting us with a merely nominal Brexit and a thorough mauling by Eurocrats desperate to save their project? Or,

2) The electorate handing the whole lot over to Comrade Jeremy in a fit of pique?

I think the best we can hope for at the moment is a really serious crisis affecting Europe from another direction. It's bound to happen sooner or later. Italy goes bust, or the Greeks kick off again, or the Eastern European heroes deciding that they want to keep their national culture. But we need it now, and we need to see the blood and smell the tear-gas so the remainers here are shown a bit of reality.

Whyaxye, well put.

From over here it looks like BoJo is making a naked power play. He apparently hopes to drive out Mrs. May, emerge as the new hero of Brexit, and assume the office of PM with the support of conservative Brexiters and anti-Corbynists.

To paraphrase a bit, it doesn't matter if you believe in science. Science believes in you. Rising sea levels have had consequences everywhere, including the British coast. And there might be a future in which Brits pray for heat waves. The warm, and warming, ocean current that has controlled the weather for thousands of years could be diverted by changes in overall ocean temperature. In some scenarios Britain will eventually have much colder weather overall. I won't bother to link anything since it's all fake news from the intellectual elite.

Please, Bob, the image of a "naked" BoJo is more than I can take on another hot day like today. Anyway, all 'polis' try "power plays" all the time, so no change there then!

If the 'Warmers' had even a slight respectability in their so-called 'science', I might listen to them instead of falling about helpless with laughter!

David, a good larf is better than falling about with heatstroke!

Don't break your funny bone David.

Bob?

"This is a significant reduction from its May 31 outlook, which had called for 14 total named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, and nearly matches the outlook released in late June by The Weather Company, an IBM Business."

"There are several reasons these outlooks are calling for lower numbers in 2018:

"1) A pattern of cooler-than-average water temperatures has persisted and expanded in the eastern Atlantic and in the central northern Atlantic."

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-02-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-csu-twc-july

"I won't bother to link anything since it's all fake news from the intellectual elite."

Not all fake then.

JK,

Climate change is not totally consistent in its manifestations or predictable. You might remember Oklahoma Oil Patch Senator Jim Inhofe holding a snowball on the Senate floor to prove thar's no sucha thang as global warmin' - haw, haw, haw. Seasonal differences in storms mean just about as much.

Which Bob, of the "The warm, and warming, ocean current" did I misunderstand, the "warm" or the "warming"?

Or was it the "ocean current that has controlled the weather" bit?

JK,

I can't blame you for not being able to think like a scientist. It takes years of discipline. It doesn't mean being inflexible, though:

"The Gulf Stream influences the climate of the east coast of North America from Florida to Newfoundland, and the west coast of Europe. Although there has been recent debate, there is consensus that the climate of Western Europe and Northern Europe is warmer than it would otherwise be due to the North Atlantic drift which is the northeastern section of the Gulf Stream."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream

Some computer models have shown the current could slow or change course as the surrounding water warms. That the water is warming is not up for debate. Melting sea ice is what has raised the sea level and affected coastal erosion in Britain.

Some computer models have shown the current could slow or change course as the surrounding water warms

Are these the same computer models which told us that by now there would be no snow at the North Pole and that a whole bunch of Pacific Islands would be underwater? Or perhaps they are the IPCC models of renowned inaccuracy.

There is still ice at the North Pole despite Al Gore and the endangered Pacific islands are increasing in size.

Global warming as a consequence of human activity is crap science fed by such charlatans as Michael Mann of "hockey stick" infamy in your hemisphere and Tim Flannery of "it will not rain again and the dams will all dry up" in the Southern hemisphere.

Well Bob, this summer in Italy is cooler and damper than several recent summers. But I suppose that s weather not climate?

As a self declared scientist surely you can detect cherry picked statistics at a thousand yards?

A neighbour is panicking over the prospect of Corbyn winning a snap election and is stocking up on tinned goods, toilet paper, candles and, surprisingly because he lives alone, sanitary towels (he has visited the socialist paradises of Cuba and Venezuela in the past years and says that STs are in very short supply and if it gets women flocking to his door, it can only be a good thing).
On a more serious note, a McDonnell win, for he is the man we must fear, will lead to the brain dead Labour supporters jubilantly rioting in the streets, looting shops of electrical goods, though much use they will be when the unions start their power cuts though, if previous riots are anything to go by, stocks of work boots will be left untouched.
Interesting times ahead, I'm afraid.

AussieD and Cuffleyburgers,

I don't expect to change anyone's mind. In fact what you believe is your business, no matter how blinkered, and isn't even a drop in the ocean. Earth is a super-complex system. Any one event or series of events don't necessarily indicate anything. However, the one effect of warming experienced around the globe is rising sea levels:

"Core samples, tide gauge readings, and, most recently, satellite measurements tell us that over the past century, the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) has risen by 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). However, the annual rate of rise over the past 20 years has been 0.13 inches (3.2 millimeters) a year, roughly twice the average speed of the preceding 80 years.

Over the past century, the burning of fossil fuels and other human and natural activities has released enormous amounts of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. These emissions have caused the Earth's surface temperature to rise, and the oceans absorb about 80 percent of this additional heat."

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/sea-level-rise/

Here are examples of what's happening in the US:

https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Inhabit/2017/0803/In-race-against-rising-seas-Louisiana-scrambles-to-save-dwindling-coast

http://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-solutions-2018-4

And the UK:

http://noorimages.com/feature/rising-sea-levels-united-kingdom/

And Oz:

https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/reef-authority-tackles-threat/2974735/

Also, just to be clear, I never claimed to be a scientist. I was an electrical engineer by training. However, over my career I worked with dozens of scientists and became familiar with their way of thinking. While many of them are brilliant, almost none are good at designing lab methods or otherwise doing practical stuff. Engineers are better at all that.

Even TheBigHenry, a nuclear physicist and right winger who used to comment here, called it "global warning" because he understood the data.

Bob,
Have you considered the amount of CO2 and other toxic, climate warming, cheek calls and gases have been released into the atmosphere from these volcanoes which keep erupting? How many years of saving the planet by eating raw mung beans and living a frugal, ecological,lifestyle does that equate to? Global warming, if it is actually happening, can he said to run in cycles, dictated by whichever mood the sun is in when it wakes up in the morning, "I'm feeling mischievous today, so let's send a couple of solar flares to that little third planet and see if Al Gore can get another Nobel prize out of it?" To those who claim we pesky humans are causing global warming, I merely ask what ended the last ice age? Those inconsiderate Neanderthals overuse of burning mammoth dung may be a possibility. Anyway, we're so stupid, we'll blow ourselves into extinction long before the seas envelope Duffer's mansion(s).

If the Tippling Philosopher goes under, I will lodge a complaint.

Penseiveat, you're right that there is a natural cycle of climate caused by many variables we understand and some we don't. The atmosphere has withstood volcanic activity and remained relatively unchanged for thousands of years. The addition of carbon by way of burning fossil fuels is new and has a number of knock-on effects:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record

We don't have to change our lifestyles much at all if we put appropriate effort into more advanced sources of energy that already exist. That, however, would hurt the bottom lines of current energy-supplying companies and countries, so they generate lots of propaganda about how burning stuff is good and alternatives are bad; much the same as the tobacco companies told us it wasn't their product causing emphysema and lung cancer.

Without burning stuff that adds heavy metals and other poisons to the environment, we'd even be able to eat all the tuna and other large fish we'd like again. And that's the least of it.

Mr "Doomloop" on May's Brexit plan ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/12/danger-europe-might-accept-brexit-white-paper/

I disagree with his conclusion.

If the EU falls for her trap they'll have made the biggest mistake in their history. Worse than the Euro and opening the borders to Syrian migrants combined.

By allowing Blighty's manufacturing to continue prospering in the single market, and allowing services to enter the big bad world where it will also prosper, Blighty will do very well indeed.

Doomloop says Blighty won't get trade deals for services with the rest of the world - the Don has already kicked off on that one.

Bullshit.

Blighty's services can shrug off tariffs by simply adding the tariff to the price. We've got services that China, India, et al don't even have. We've got them by the short and curlies.

Plus - now this is a cracker - EU services sold to Blighty will be subject to whatever tariff applies if May's plan goes into action, and the US, et al. A simple offset system, like VAT, implemented by HMG, would allow Blighty's service exporters to claim back the tariffs imposed on their exports from the revenue received to HMG on service imports.

Blighty would thrive.

And the message would be received loud and clear to the European rebel states: It is possible to leave the EU and do well.

Sacred bleu! Surely Juncker et al won't fall for this?

It will be Blighty's Alamein if they do.

SoD

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