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Friday, 13 July 2018

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We former denizens of the Officers' Mess called it 'the Loyal Toast'.

"Mrs. May is a polite, well-meaning, middle-class lady who clings to the old-fashioned, English principles of compromise."

Not she's not. She's a Barmy Old Bat who should b***** off. Did you read Allison Pearson in yesterday's DT?

Sorry, Deccers, but in the Corporals' Mess the only toast we had was usually burnt!

No I missed that one, BOE.

What decnine said even applies to us Colonials including those what "come up through the hawse pipe".

"The Donald" maybe somewhat brash but he says what he thinks which is a refreshing change from those who say what they think will best suit whatever their current agenda is.

Glancing around the Web, including The Sun newspaper, it is agreed Trump doesn't do 'form'. He also doesn't do restraint either when it comes to weakness, eg his own US Attorney General this week, and now PM May and her flaccid Brexit flop. She has allowed the Europeans 'just over there' to finally, after generations, break one off in Great Britain.

Interesting times when the US President is more of a principled patriot regarding Britain than our own Prime Minister. And what a far cry from Obama! Do you remember how Cameron asked him to say how if we left the EU we in the UK would be "at the back of the queue"? And the snake duly obliged!

It seems SoD is now defending an aspect of Brexit on a previous post and FoD has adopted SoD's idea the Tories have cinched it for Labour. We're through the looking glass here, people.

Judging by the comments of protesting London lefties, they sound word for word like American lefties...who sound like Aussie lefties and so on. Must be something in their drinking water.

In pleading for May to return to hard Brexit, and away from hybrid Brexit, he's shone some light into May's strategy. It's a beaut. If she pulls this one off, and the Don has possibly sussed her, she will be a great PM.

May's plan for "hybrid Brexit" sees manufacturing and agri-food inside the single market and customs union, and services outside, as we know.

Taken on face value this is the best plan possible. So many reasons ...

1. Preserves Blighty's manufacturing and agri-food industries which are most vulnerable to hard Brexit - collapsing supply chains etc. How was Blighty going to sell manufactured goods and agri-food to peeps in India and China prepared to work for a bag of rice a day and zero "'elf and safety"? Better to keep up with the Jones's if you want to be a Jones.

2. Let's Blighty's strongest global export lead the way outside the EU: services. Services can survive tariffs. If you're an Indian or Chinese firm that doesn't know about AI, derivatives, international law, marketing techniques, what are you going to do? Pony up and carry on buying British, is what you're going to do. India and China putting up tariff barriers against Blighty's know-how is cutting off their noses to spite their faces, we'll just add the tariff to the price.

3. Brings Brexiteers and Remainers together in friendly competition. Each side gets a slice of the cake to eat, to prove to all and sundry which is the better regime to operate under: the single market or the global market. We can all watch the manu-agri-food Vs services competition from the comfort of our own stable and prosperous armchairs, and down tools. It de-weaponizes the Brexit-Remain war.

4. "Brexit is forever, not just for Xmas". The debate will continue even after whatever is signed is signed. It's been going on four two millenia ever since the Romans rocked up and took on the ancient Brits. May's plan is like the centre four squares on the chess table: a position of great strategic value because from there Blighty can move and flex in either direction as required going forward. If the global market booms for Blighty, she can do a Brexit 2.0 and shift the rest of manu-agri-food out of the single market and into the global market, and all the institutions and infrastructure will be in place from the trailblazing services industry already there. If services fails in the global market, then it can be brought back into the single market (to Mr Juncker's delight).

5. "A virtuous tug-of-war" between US and rest of world Vs Europe. The Don and ex-colonials will be rooting for the globalised services industry to succeed and pull the rest of Blighty into their sphere of trade deals in the global market, and Juncker and the Jerries will be rooting for manu-agri-food to succeed in the single market and pull Blighty's services back in. How nice when friends squabble over your affections and attentions! Contrast that with Ukraine where enemies squabble for their affections and attentions, and get down on your knees and thank the Lord you're the right kind of "Ukie".

6. "Perfidy and smuggling". Gets Blighty right back to being the two-way gateway between Europe and rest-of-world, our time honoured and advantageous position. Who's gonna know if we're sneaking some bag-of-rice-a-day services into the manufactured goods we sell Europe? And who's gonna know if some top-notch Jerry know-how slips out to China without the Chinese tariff on EU services? Hello!!!

For all those reasons Juncker and Merkel will be making a fatal, existential, mistake if they sign May's deal.

Will they fall for it? Will the Tommies ambush the "Seasoned Ost-Front SS veterans" / get their first Alamein-like victory in this re-run of history by other means?

Now here's the rub, for May.

It doesn't matter if Juncker and Merkel suss the trap and refuse her deal. They're already fucked. As follows ...

Because May can then withdraw the deal, claim, quite acceptably to the Brits, that everything has been done and every accomodation done to assuage Europe, but they, the EU, have refused a reasonable, max-compromise, deal.

And then she can put a straight Hard Vs Soft Brexit referendum to the Brits, and, most importantly, one from which she withdraws any opinion one way or the other. She acts as umpire, committing only to deliver as PM on whoever wins. The choice is WTO Vs EEA single market Norgie style.

She encourages all Brit pol parties to split according to conscience and support their choice, while she stays schtum. Even the Don, Juncker and Merkel's are invited to lay out their stalls and join the debate.

Now we know all the facts after a two years voyage of discovery. The debate need not be long.

And here's the plus for hard Brexiteers: Even if EEA wins, the article 50 leaving clause equivalent in the EEA is one year. So much of the non-single market rules, regs, and politics is dispensed with in the EEA, it is much easier to leave the EEA than EU.

So if the EEA is a failure Blighty can go the whole hog to WTO; effectively this route splits Brexit into two manageable chunks: one to EEA, two to WTO.

And here's the plus for soft Brexiteers: If the EEA goes really well, there's always the option to re-join the EU, which will be a breeze because the single market rules and regs alignment will have been maintained.

So, from May's point of view, it's a win-win. It doesn't matter whether Juncker and Merkel sign her deal or not - they lose! Blighty gets to the four centre squares of the hybrid-Brexit chess table if they sign it and she wins. And if they don't sign it, May gets to lead Blighty into the WTO or EEA because she was the umpire not one of the players!

In essence, Juncker and Merkel are already in the ambush. Their choice is merely do they die trying to escape one way or the other!

As said, May will become a great PM as this strategic ruse is revealed, and I think the Don has sussed it - hence his grudging compliments to her yesterday.

SoD

Dan Hannon is a must read ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/14/theresa-mays-brexit-plan-embarrassing-climbdown-would-vote-nonetheless/

His list of benefits to May's plan is not as extensive as mine above, but a good effort nonetheless.

Honestly, if the Euros sign it, Blighty will become as prosperous as Switzerland.

As said in my lengthy above, I can't believe the Euros will make such a suicidal error. But if they do, it'll be Blighty's Alamein in this re-run of history by other means.

If they don't sign it, then it was a noble effort. May must hold a referendum: WTO or EEA. And if she's wise she'll stand aside and say:

"I'm a 'will of the people politician'. I do what you demand, not what my own dogma demands. Tell me which one you want, WTO or EEA, and I will faithfully deliver it. I'm a 'civil servant pol' and I only do your bidding. You can see how I ducked and dived and twisted and turned to bring Leave and Remain together to deliver the most we could offer and receive from the EU in my plan. No other pol could have done due diligence to that exercise like I did. The EU has stubbornly refused. We now have the moral high ground. We can leave in our way without accusation that we have snubbed our EU partner or been rash. The Don is chomping at the bit for WTO so he can deal us an FTA, and the EU is chomping at the bit to give us EEA. You be the judge, and as I have shown you, I will deliver whichever you choose."

A great PM in the making, whether the EU signs her plan or not.

SoD

Aha! Greening has read my comment on D&N! Albeit she's got the plan a bit cocksquiff ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/16/justine-greening-backs-second-brexit-referendum-theresa-may/

She's after another referendum saying the pols are gridlocked, so let's ask the hoi-poloi to unblock the grid.

She's included May's plan in the choice for the time being, while the Euros make their mind up whether to accept it or not.

But notice that sneaky Remainer has put remain in the full EU as a choice on the ballot paper rather than my option (that respects the first referendum) of EEA!

She has suggested the second choice transfer mechanism; very sensible.
Perhaps all four then? WTO, May, EEA, EU.

Let the "Will of the People" decide, eh?! "Dread words" - if you're a Brexiteer ...

SoD

Here's Will Hague, squealing like a stuck pig, as the "Will of the people" spear he and the Brexiteers adore is thrust through his own body! ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/16/second-referendum-would-completely-disastrous-britain/

Why on earth would a 9 month campaign be required? Just so the same bunch of lying liars from both sides who got us into this mess can cover up the truth revealed over the last two years?

Even her Maj, who said "Give me three good reasons for staying in the EU" after the lie-fest two years ago, now says to the Don, "Brexit is a very complex problem" ...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/15/trump-reveals-the-queens-private-views-on-brexit

It's almost all over for you Brexiteers. You're in the trap with the Euros. By tightening up May's plan with those four votes in the house of commons last night you've almost guaranteed the Euros will reject May's plan and a referendum will follow, with the EEA or remaining in the EU as options. The "will of the people" will thumb you down.

SoD

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