Well, of course, I pose the question but as per usual I haven't a clue as to the answer. I have been forecasting (oh alright then, guessing!) both events for some time now but today I can offer you a very much more professional summary of the China problem courtesy of Mr. Jeremy Warner in The Telegraph. What I can say with some conviction is that if Italy goes bust because of its debt it might produce an exceedingly loud bang in Europe but if China goes 'tits up' the entire world will feel some massive reverberations!
This is a relatively recent phenomenon; up until the global financial crisis, China’s debt problem was nothing to get too concerned about. But then came Lehman’s and the consequent collapse in Western demand. To compensate, and keep its own growth on track, China launched a fiscal and monetary stimulus of unprecedented size and scope. Since then, growth in debt has far outstripped economic output, rising from around 170pc of GDP at the time of the crisis to more than 300pc today.[My emphasis]
By and large, I am exceedingly doubtful about Trump's tariff war with China but given the current strength of the American economy my guess is that 'Uncle Sam' can take the collateral damage more steadily than China. All those 'zillions' of Chinese people, former peasants or the sons of peasants, have been given, for the first time ever, a taste of 'the good life' and they will be exceedingly pissed off if it collapses all around them.
A corrective, or perhaps I should say, another opinion, this time from A E-P in The Telegraph who suspects that China, under its strict, or shall we say, dictatorial system, will march steadily on through any trade crisis that results from the current tariff 'war'. What do I think? I'll tell you when it's over - I should live so long, my life already!