Two depressing articles in the prints today concerning the middle east. Niall Ferguson in the Telegraph likens the situation to that which pertained in the Balkans prior to 1914. He points out that the putative Palestinian state is now utterly split and Iraq is bound to fall apart, as well. He lambastes Edward Luttwak of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington who proposes that, in effect, we should ignore the whole thing. Luttwak reckons that Iran, too, is hopelessly divided on ethnic grounds and eventually is likely to follow Iraq into meltdown. He suggests that the middle east is a hopeless basket-case and the best thing for the west to do is to keep our guard up but not get involved. Unfortunately we already are, and others are following suit as they prepare to ram home their own national interests in the chaos that is fast developing - there are already reports of Turkish troops massing on the borders of Kurdish Iraq.
Christopher Hitchens, in the Mail on Sunday (no link yet but it should go up during the week), adds to the gloom by analysing long-term Israeli weakness evidenced, not least, by the disparity in birth rates between the Arabs and the Jews. He also points to the poor calibre of the Israeli leadership compared to the great warrior statesmen at the beginning of the inception of Israel, of which the recent spate of grubby corruption cases amongst government ministers and the poor performance of the Israeli army are but all too visible examples. Hitchens is an Israeli sympathiser but not one to allow his feelings to cloud his gloomy judgement. If he says things are on the slide - they are!
I have always taken the view, contrary to the oft-repeated claims of Israelis that they have "a right to exist", that no-one has such a right. You either succeed in defending yourself or not. I have also supported the strategy that we should support Israel on the Clausewitzean principle that it is better to fight your battles by using a proxy on some-one else's territory. Keeping the Israelis well-armed keeps the attention of the Arabs focused over there, and not over here. However, if your proxy looks like losing, then one might have to rethink!
Keeping the Israelis well-armed keeps the attention of the Arabs focused over there, and not over here.
Algeria,Munich,Paris and Madrid, David the Arabs have always been focused on the west when fighting Israel. If anything Dave the Arab elites need Israel to distract their people from their corruption/incompetence.
I will read Clausewitz soon, although I am a Sun-Tzu man myself.
Posted by: ZinZin | Monday, 18 June 2007 at 18:44
ZinZin, I shall respond more fully when I return at the weekend.
Posted by: David Duff | Tuesday, 19 June 2007 at 10:40