At the end of a long comment thread to a post below, Larry stated reasonably that "I am not persuaded that the death penalty reduces the murder rate. OK then, it is because I have never seen any convincing statistical evidence to that effect." This is intended to help him, and others. You will need to link to this site which is a copy of a Parliamentary research paper produced under the aegis of the Home Office and is dated 1999. It will probably be helpful for any reader to have that site opened in tandem with this post so that you may click from here to there as you read. (Alas, I haven't a clue how to copy and paste Adobe graphs, so that is all I can suggest.)
It is obviously difficult to compare murder stats country to country because of the 'noise' of cultural differences. There are I think two nations in which useful statistics might be found applicable to this debate. Naturally, we should start with our own country which began running down the number of executions in the late 1950s until the last hangings in 1964. It was officially abolished in 1965.
Please scroll down to p.10 on the other site and look at the graph which shows the number of homicides in England & Wales. I would appeal to any fair-minded reader to deny the significance of the huge rise in the graph from 1964 onwards. Still, to be fair and as accurate as I can be, I should ask if there were other conditions at work. Again, I would suggest that since the 1950s, what was a relatively disciplined society has been 'liberated', or 'degenerated', I leave it to you to choose the word, but unquestionably social mores become increasingly lax. Towards the end of the period covered, the increasing use of, and trafficking in, drugs, plus the rise in race-related clashes has certainly added to the violence in society. However, anyone wishing to depend on those social factors needs also to take into account the very large improvements in medical A&E procedures by which increasing numbers of wounded survived injuries that would have killed them in earlier times. I would tentatively suggest that these 'opposite' factors, roughly, cancel each other out. Thus, we return to that graph and the incredible co-incidence, if that is what it is, that from abolition, the murder rate climbed like a rocket!
If you then scroll down to the next page 11, you will see the number of homicides per million of population, which in:
1965 was 325 equating to 6.8 per million
had risen in 1997 to 738 or 14.1 per million
in 2004/5 the number had risen to 839 or 15 per million (1)
And remember, the population had increased by millions from what it had been in 1965, so the number of individual victims was growing enormously.
That is the case for our country but now I switch to the USA because they are the only sophisticated western state to have abolished capital punishment but then returned to it. It almost goes without saying that to take the USA as a whole is never going to be totally satisfactory because of the sheer size and diversity of the place and its people. Also, of course, there are very many variations in state laws and procedures which will muddy any statistical details. However, for a very broad brush look at the overall murder rates in America scroll down to p. 34 which is a graph showing the number of executions and a line showing the number of homicides. Again, like the UK, as the executions tailed off in the early '60s, so the murder rate climbed, but as the executions began again and increased in numbers from the mid '80s, so the number of murders fell. However, that is across the whole of the USA which might contain a great deal of noise. So let us concentrate on individual states.
Please scroll down to the bottom of p.34, then scroll down through the next three pages below which contain Table 13, a state by state analysis of the murder rate from 1977 to 1997. The areas shaded blue indicate that the state concerned had sanctioned capital punishment in principle, if not necessarily in practice. The years surrounded by a box indicate that they were years in which people were actually executed. I did a little exercise and looked at the 37 states who for the vast majority of the years 1977 to 1997 put capital punishment back on the statute book whether or not they used it. The change in murder rates per 100,000 of population over 20 years from 1977 to 1997, were:
Down: 28 states Unchanged: 7 states Increased: 2 States
Then I looked at those states which, for most of the time, refused to put capital punishment on their books:
Down: 6 states Unchanged: 4 states Increased: 4 states.
Before Larry and others become too excited at the 6 states whose murder rate fell without capital punishment, I should point out that in four of those cases, the fall was a single digit, for example, Kansas fell from a rate of 7 murders per 1oo,ooo of population, to 6 murders. The two exceptions were Hawaii (7 down to 4) and Alaska (11 down to 9).
Perhaps the most startling of the 'risers' was the District of Columbia, in effect, Washington, which refused to sanction the death penalty and which saw the rate begin at 28 murders per 100,000 and hurtle up to 57 murders - in 20 years!
Turning to those states who had the death penalty on their books, although not all of them used it, 14 of the 28 states who saw a drop in their figures, began in 1977 with murder rates in double figures, so one can imagine the imperative to accept a reversal of the law. Only 2 of these states saw a rise in their murder rates, Arkansas (9 up to 10) and Maryland (8 up to 10). Interestingly, if you look at the columns that refer to them you will notice that both states had the death penalty but refused to use it until they saw a rise in the rates in the early '90s when they then began to execute people. In both states the rates then started to fall back!
As I warned Larry in an earlier thread, there can be no 'Eureka!' moment of scientific proof in this matter which is all too human and therefor all too muddled and confusing. Reasonable men and women needs must use their best judgement. Mine is that here in the UK we should bring back hanging for all homicides in which there is any element of previous intent - which includes carrying weapons - and also any assault resulting in death which was continued over a period of time.
(1) This stat from: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs06/hosb0206.pdf
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