Clutching at straw polls now that Hank is fired!

As some of you may remember, I fired Hank as my pollster of choice because he kept displaying a graph in which Obama's blue line mounted steadily above McCain's red line.  I screamed and ranted and even bit the carpet but he was unmoved so, well, he had to go, after all, there is a bottle of 12-year old Macallan at stake and I just know that stingy, grasping, Southern 'good ol'boy', 'Fallen Monk', won't do the gentlemanly thing and let me off a losing bet.  (You know, that Sherman chap, he wasn't all bad!)  So, in desperation I have sought comfort, figuratively speaking, in the arms of a blonde who at least has the advantage of being better looking than Hank!  I refer, of course, to the delectable, if a tad formidable, Ms. Ann Coulter.

In her usual 'tell-it-the-way-it-is-and-damn-the-consequences' style, she reminds us that people lie a lot.  This is proven over and over again in any sex survey that was ever published.  But as she points out, another subject upon which few are prepared to be utterly truthful is the thorny subject of race, and so answers to pollsters' questions in this current, presidential competition featuring a black candidate need to be treated with care:

"First of all, if true, this is the opposite of racism: It is fear of being accused of racism. For most Americans, there is nothing more terrifying than the prospect of being called a racist. It's scarier than flood or famine, terrorist attacks or flesh-eating bacteria. To some, it's even scarier than "food insecurity."  Political correctness has taught people to lie to pollsters rather than be forced to explain why they're not voting for the African-American."

According to Ms. Coulter, there is also a sort of reverse social embarrassment at work which is evinced in the response of secret McCain supporters:

"In addition to the social pressure to constantly prove you're not a racist, apparently there is massive social pressure to prove you're not a Republican. No one is lying about voting for McCain just to sound cool. "

She continues to hearten me with every word as she reconciles the poll forecasts with actual outcomes in elections since the heady Reagan days.  She points out that the media polls always went wrong in one direction - they never over-estimated the Republican vote!  True, she does admit that the polls in the last election - not including the hopeless exit poll - were fairly accurate but then, in her final sentence, in true Coulter style, she hurls in a vial of acid:

"So either pollsters got a whole lot better starting in 2004, or Democrats stole more votes in that election than we even realized."

I'm beginning to hope, just a little, and I swear I can almost taste that Jack Daniels - and if that 'Fallen Monk' thinks he's getting off the hook, he can think again!

Comments

David

UNFAIR: Ms Coulter is far prieter than I am I do not have chance. :- )

If you check the chart today it shows a small movement by both candidates’ numbers to the middle, they must have heard your complaint.

That chart I have displayed has the advantage that it always posts their latest numbers without any action by me. I think it the weakest of the polls to which I provide links. If you click through they always include some outlying polls that show a lean to Obama.

The Rasmussen link goes to a daily tracking poll. They poll a thousand people every night and the reported results are for the last three days combined. This is considered on of the best tracking polls. It shows a 4 to 5 point difference.

Ms Coulters comments on the “Bradley Effect” are right on. The trouble is there is no way to measure it in advance.

The comments about pressure to not appear Republican or Pro McCain are real too. I sit in our break room for lunch and Obama’s supporters make political comments in a tone that suggests offering a mild counter point would be immediately augured down by volume. (I think Senator Obama would be embarrassed by their comments. Well he should be.)

So what is going to happen? On November 4 we will hold an election and on January 21 George Bush will not be President.

[fallenmonk]

There is only about two good toddies in my bottle of MaCallan so the election needs to come on. Your bottle of Jack is sitting here but I haven't packaged it for international shipment just yet. Madam and I have cast our ballots early though so we know at least two votes are in the bag for Obama.
If it gives you any pleasure you should know that my neighborhood is plastered with McCain/Palin signs and my GOP neighbors are doing an excellent job of removing the occasional Obama/Biden sign that has the nerve to show its face.