. . . the pilot is a 'wingless wonder' who has never flown before!" That is the sort of announcement you might expect from the White House in November - but which you will definitely not hear or read - if Obama wins. The financial hurricane has already hit mainland America but the economic one has yet to devastate Main Street, America. What will Obama do? I don't know, and nor does he. No shame in that, hardly anyone does know, but in times of emergency there is a tendency to cling to dogma. Needless to say, Obama's version, more soppy socialism to match his already soppy thinking, is the worst one possible for the situation. However, I sense a streak of ruthlessness in him which might - repeat, might - take some of his clueless supporters by surprise, but then necessity is a stern task-master! There are no panaceas available to deal with the slump that has already started. Like a doctor in a plague-hit area armed only with sticky plasters, Obama will have precious little to dish out for comfort as a means of bolstering his popularity which, I suspect, will drop like a stone before the 2012 election. That is just on the home front . . .
Overseas, "troubles will come not single spies but in battalions", starting with China. Their desire for Taiwan has been supressed for too long. Now, hyped up with their Olympic 'success' and facing a home population that might become restive if there is any diminution of their standard of living, a foreign adventure against a frail and sickly Uncle Sam will be very tempting. So question #1 for Obama is what will he do when the Taiwan card is played? Does anyone know? Does he know? I doubt it, so he will have to do some quick thinking!
Then there is the highly dangerous instability within nuclear-armed Pakistan and the fraught situation on the border areas with Afghanistan in which lurk, with almost complete safety, the fast-growing Taliban. Already, some observers are suggesting the equivalent of the Tet offensive might take place in Kabul timed to test a young and inexperienced president who has a reputation (not yet earned, I might add) for being soft on international affairs and who is, in any case, bedevilled with a faltering economy. Of course, it is possible that he, in order to demonstrtate to the world that he is no push-over, might 'do a Kennedy in Cuba' (the action of another young and inexperienced president) and over re-act in Pakistan. Certainly his words in regard to Pakistan during the campaign have been very belligerent - but will he put the American army where his mouth is?
Meanwhile, the Russian 'mafia' (it is silly to think of it as a government) will be positively eager to seize any scraps that a wounded America leaves lying around. After all, they can safely ignore the Europeans whose tender gas-filled testicles are safely in a Russian vice. So where will they push - Ukraine seems favourite, but perhaps they might take an easier target in one or more of the tiny countries in the Baltic. What will 'president' Obama do about that? Do you know? I certainly don't! Does the Democratic party know? Of course not!
On top of all these grand strategic problems there remains, as always, the activities of the 'usual suspects'. The Iranians continue to struggle amongst themselves but give every appearance of forging ahead with their bomb and everyone knows that the second the Israelis believe it's birth to be imminent, they will attack. The USA will then be tasked with keeping the Gulf open for oil supplies which will not be that difficult but will require determination - and money - from Washington. Pin pricks from South America are certain to increase but the world-wide slump is likely to inhibit their ambitions even more than most. Finally, South Africa looks likely to slide downhill into internal strife, possibly even civil war - and they are a main supplier for all sorts of essential commodities such as gold and platinum.
I have no idea how 'president' Obama will cope with all these problems but optimistic I am not! Perhaps more important is the question of how the American people will re-act, after all, they are the great sheet anchor that both holds and steers a presidency. At the moment a huge section of them appear to be filled, in the usual American way, with great optimism, enthusiasm and hope for the future with their about-to-be-crowned president, but as another, truly wise American once said, in a phrase that will be echoed in Peking, Moscow, and sundry caves in the Hindu Kush, "Never give a sucker an even break!"
Well, we certainly can't have John "Ticking Timebomb" McCain presiding over all of these problems! An even temperament will give Obama an advantage that should reassure you, Mr. Duff, and our other allies.
I won't even tease you about your bold prediction for this election, that's how encouraged I'm feeling by Obama's lead in the polls!
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Sunday, 26 October 2008 at 05:52
Ouch! You ladies know how to hit a man where it hurts! Plus, I am reminded yet again that I will almost certainly have to send 'Fallen Monk' a bottle of Macallan when McCain loses. However, I would remind both you and him to be careful of what you wish for!
Posted by: David Duff | Sunday, 26 October 2008 at 08:41
"An even temperament will give Obama an advantage..."
It would, perhaps.
But does he have one? That's the question.
Posted by: JuliaM | Sunday, 26 October 2008 at 08:54
Oh dear! This is a moment similar to those that occur in clubs when the indolent bouncers leaning aginst the walls suddenly straighten up and start looking alert because they sense trouble looming!
Ladies, allow me to introduce you - Julia meet 'SW', and 'SW', this is Julia. Now shake hands and be nice to each other - please? You are both, in your very different styles - ruthless and deadly! And how is an old English gentleman like me going to seperate you with decorum when you both erupt into the nail-slashing, hair-pulling phase?
(Oh, alright then, if that's how it's going to be, may the best girl win - I'm outta here!)
Posted by: David Duff | Sunday, 26 October 2008 at 09:22
Lol!
Posted by: JuliaM | Sunday, 26 October 2008 at 16:06
Just note David that we Americans really only have two choices. An old man who finished near the bottom of his class at the Naval Academy and who has voted with Bush 90% of the time and who has offered no clear vision forward except more of the same or Obama. We don't know what Obama will do but we do know that he is intelligent and thoughtful and secure enough in his own abilities to surround himself with talented people and to listen to them. I have gone with the latter.
Posted by: fallenmonk | Monday, 27 October 2008 at 17:42
It is, perhaps, the people with whom he surrounds himself that worries me the most! But, as I have remarked before, it is the office that maketh or breaketh the man. We shall see!
Posted by: David Duff | Monday, 27 October 2008 at 17:48
Oh no, David, you're not referring to Obama's "terrorist pals" are you?!? The list of Grandpa McCain's nefarious associates is far more alarming.
Julia, pleased to meet you, whoever you are. I can only handle one internet vendetta at a time, so have no worries about me!
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Monday, 27 October 2008 at 21:28
No, no, 'SW', I always discounted that; it's the idealistic, young socialists, I worry about, all those "Peace 'n' Love, man" goofballs who seem to follow the Obama caravan. Frankly, my dwindling hopes are resting on a feeling I have that young Mr. Obama is a mean, s.o.b. operator with a ruthless streak a mile wide. He's going to need it dealing with the likes of 'Godfather' Putin and his ilk!
Truly, it is a curse to live in interesting times!
Posted by: David Duff | Monday, 27 October 2008 at 21:41
"We don't know what Obama will do but we do know that he is intelligent.."
We do? You mean, he finally published his educational record...?
Oh. No, he didn't. You meant people have told you he's intelligent...
"it's the idealistic, young socialists, I worry about, all those "Peace 'n' Love, man" goofballs who seem to follow the Obama caravan."
Yes, that worries me too. Plus the fact that so many of them are in the MSM...
"Julia, pleased to meet you.."
Likewise :)
Posted by: JuliaM | Monday, 27 October 2008 at 22:17
Obama is a graduate of Columbia University, graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law school, was elected president of the Harvard Law Review, taught Constitutional Law for 12 years....
What more do you need to deem this man "intelligent?" An IQ test?
To doubt the man's demonstrable intelligence seems kind of argumentative.
It would be more interesting to try to prove McCain's or Palin's intelligence!
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Tuesday, 28 October 2008 at 06:45
Quick ... where's the exit?
Posted by: David Duff | Tuesday, 28 October 2008 at 08:49
"What more do you need to deem this man "intelligent?""
Quite a bit more. Even 'The New Statesman' (a publication I'm unlikely to agree with much else on) seems to think there's not much 'there' there: "Far from being the brilliant student his image suggests, Obama was a consistently B-grade pupil. He went on to attend Occidental College, a perfectly respectable private liberal arts college in Los Angeles, but hardly an academic powerhouse"
John McCain has released his record (and cheerfully admitted it wasn't up to much) - it can be found here:
McCain
But Obama's..? Missing in action, it seems....
Posted by: JuliaM | Tuesday, 28 October 2008 at 17:46
And for a man so possessed of a supposedly towering intellect, he's made many poor choices, and no real achievements...
Posted by: JuliaM | Tuesday, 28 October 2008 at 17:48
Julia, I thought we were discussing whether Obama is "intelligent," not whether he has a "towering intellect."
The link to that article wasn't proof on anything, just some guy insisting Obama was a "B" student.
It's just as easy to find articles extoling his academic performance.
If you want to believe Obama lacks intelligence, so be it.
Can we pretend Sarah Palin isn't stupid, though?
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Tuesday, 28 October 2008 at 23:38
Well, you can assume she is, if you like. But then you have to ask why the Alaskans elected here as governor - and why she had such a high approval rating even among Alaskan Democrats.
But then, that was always hurled at G W Bush too - and yet he still managed to run rings around his opponents, win two terms, etc, etc.
Rather makes you wonder who the 'stupid' ones really were...?
But seriously, I really don't get the antipathy towards this woman - is it snobbery? A lot of commentators I read regularly think it is, and yet class snobbery is supposed to be a mainly British habit. Very odd.
Posted by: JuliaM | Wednesday, 29 October 2008 at 05:20
Oh my. Is it not universally accepted at this point that GW Bush has been a disaster as President? Hurrican Katrina, if nothing else....and there is so much else.
It is not snobbery behind the reaction to Mrs. Palin, but rather a sense of insult that this inexperienced and uninformed women has been placed in a potential position of power that is alarming to those who read newspapers and know geography.
I don't believe it's snobbery to want the leaders of your country to be capable of complex thinking and expression. Anti-intellectualism is a real scourge in America, where sophistication is now virtually a synonym for 'gay.' God forbid anyone actually sounds smart, and risk being called an elitist!
Is there another coutnry where stupidity is celebrated and intelligence is 'suspect'?
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Thursday, 30 October 2008 at 00:06
"Oh my. Is it not universally accepted at this point that GW Bush has been a disaster as President? "
Well, no. Sorry to disappoint, but it's not even universally accepted in your own country, let alone over here.
OK, not the most inspiring president, but far from the worst (I think Carter still has that 'honour'..).
"It is not snobbery behind the reaction to Mrs. Palin, but rather a sense of insult that this inexperienced and uninformed women has been placed in a potential position of power..."
Oh, yeah. That's not snobbery, all right.. *rolls eyes*
"...alarming to those who read newspapers and know geography... "
Your evidence that she doesn't know geography, or read newspapers, please...?
"I don't believe it's snobbery to want the leaders of your country to be capable of complex thinking and expression."
Me neither. Any evidence that the VP nominee (not the presidential nominee, but the VP nominee, mind you) is incapable of that?
Posted by: JuliaM | Thursday, 30 October 2008 at 19:34
Julia, Mr. Bush's approval rating is now around 20%.
Mrs. Palin can barely articulate a coherent thought. She speaks in gibberish. She was found guilty of abusing her power as Governor by a bi-partisan commission, and then announced that she was pleased to be cleared of wrongdoing.
But it's silly for us to continue this discussion.
I'm glad we both live in countries where, thus far, we can freely express our opinions, and debate whether the sun is the moon.
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Friday, 31 October 2008 at 02:56
Well, that's still higher than the approval rating for Congress, which was down at 18% when the Guardian last checked on 1st Oct, and was thought to be closer to 10%:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/01/georgebush.congress
As for Palin's articulation, I've watched interviews, debates and speeches on the web and satellite TV and found her to be no better or worse than most politicians, frankly.
I'm not the only one who thinks there's a fair amount of snobbery involved in the MSM's perception of her either:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-27/sarah-palins-a-brainiac/2/
But you're right, it's good to be free to express your opinion, unhindered by your political opponent's supporters illegally accessing your personal data as a result of you asking awkward questions:
http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/10/27/copy/joe28.html?adsec=politics&sid=101
Posted by: JuliaM | Friday, 31 October 2008 at 05:23
"Well done, Ladies", he said shakily as he climbed cautiously out of his slit trench, "I call that a score draw!"
Posted by: David Duff | Friday, 31 October 2008 at 09:25
;)
Posted by: JuliaM | Friday, 31 October 2008 at 17:49
Julia, with all respect and affection for our host here, I am glad to tell you how preposterous your opinions are, and how dead wrong you are about Obama, Bush, and Mrs. Palin.
Even confronted with the evidence you asked for, you continued to insist your views were correct. Look back at our discussion and your closed-mindedness is glaringly obvious.
You are clearly a complete moron.
God bless Americans for resisting lies, stupidity, racism and war-mongering!
love,
Sister Wolf
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Wednesday, 05 November 2008 at 08:10
Oh dear, just when I thought I could hang up my helmet. Hey-ho, back to the slit trench!
Posted by: David Duff | Wednesday, 05 November 2008 at 09:16
"I am glad to tell you how preposterous your opinions are, and how dead wrong you are about Obama, Bush, and Mrs. Palin."
And I'm so glad you backed up your assessment there with links, facts and....
Oh.
"Even confronted with the evidence you asked for, you continued to insist your views were correct."
No, I simply countered your links, extracts and opinions with my links, extracts and opinions that cast a different light on the same issue. I thought that was how this 'debate' lark was supposed to work...
Now I see it's just the first person to claim that they are right regardless and that their opponent is 'clearly wrong because I say so', and then run away. No tedious research or effort required! And dare I say it, no thought.
*slaps forehead* Gosh, you sure showed me! ;)
Posted by: JuliaM | Wednesday, 05 November 2008 at 17:22
TAKE COVER - INCOMING!!!
Posted by: David Duff | Wednesday, 05 November 2008 at 18:30
Hahaha! Keep slapping the old forehead until'magna cum laude' comes into focus, and 20% approval rating means Failed Presidency.
As for Mrs. Palin, the word is out that even Mr. McCain couldn't stand her.
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Thursday, 06 November 2008 at 00:12
"...and 20% approval rating means Failed Presidency."
You expect Obama to drop that low after the honeymon period, eh..?
Well, he'll still be ahead of Congress (unless of course that goes even lower) ;)
"As for Mrs. Palin, the word is out that even Mr. McCain couldn't stand her."
Given he can see her being the 2012 candidate, and there's no chance whatsoever for him now, I'm hardly surprised. Perhaps next time, the Reublicans will have learnt that picking a MSM favourite for the top job isn't going to win them any favours in the long run.
Posted by: JuliaM | Thursday, 06 November 2008 at 05:23
Rather more interestingly, it seems the haste to elect the Messiah is already having unfortunate consequences for previously staunchly Democratic values:
"Although the president-elect opposed the gay marriage ban, it appears his supporters may have helped pass the measure that was vociferously opposed by many white Democrats."
But it seems there's hope, and yes, change too:
"But gay rights campaigners, who spend tens of millions of dollars fighting to oppose Proposition 8, have vowed not to admit to defeat. A petition to dismiss the measure on the grounds that decision of such importance should be taken by state legislatures rather than voters has already been filed to the Supreme Court."
Interesting...
Posted by: JuliaM | Thursday, 06 November 2008 at 06:02
Oh good, Julia, so you still like Mrs. Palin and you don't like gays? And you still can't concede that Bush is a failure?
Hahaha! Knee-jerk conservative. Some of my closest gay friends are happily married. Are you?? Sorry I can't bring myself to type a winky-face.
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Friday, 07 November 2008 at 06:34
"Oh good, Julia, so you still like Mrs. Palin and you don't like gays?"
I have nothing against 'gays'. Several of my friends happen to be gay couples, and I certainly don't object to civil ceremonies - in fact, I've attended three since the law was changed...
I just find it amusing that in the rush to elect a black socialist token, several cherished Democrat beliefs were immediately thrown under the bus. But then, Obama hasd a lot of practice at that, didn't he?
"And you still can't concede that Bush is a failure?"
A failure? Well, his economic and immigration policies haven't been to my liking, but then, I don't live in the States. His bipartisanship has been something of a mistake at times (as has McCain's - much good it did him).
But everything else? No, I wouldn't call it failure.
"Some of my closest gay friends are happily married. Are you??"
Nope, happily single. There's far too much opportunity out there still to settle for domesticity. And the winking face is easy, you know - ;). There. Not so difficult.
Posted by: JuliaM | Friday, 07 November 2008 at 17:07
So, you like Bush's foreign policy, then?
This is like being at a Mad Tea Party.
Posted by: Sister Wolf | Tuesday, 11 November 2008 at 04:27
"This is like being at a Mad Tea Party."
Heh. Then who's the Dormouse?
Posted by: JuliaM | Tuesday, 11 November 2008 at 05:49