(Before I begin let me warn you that later today I am going to attempt a design change on this blog so if you arrive to find a sort of psychedelic nightmare just take an aspirin and come back later.)
You must excuse my feeble witticism(?) in the title to this post. I should have striven for something classier; perhaps, Lear's plaintiff lament "and take upon's the mystery of things/ As if we were God's spies." Yes, indeed, "the mystery of things", what a way with words that Stratford scribbler had! We have discussed here before the nature and worth of intellectuals as applied to political leadership but today I would like to push it into the area of scientific endeavour. I am provoked to this by two very different but excellent blog posts, but before I begin I would like to drop the word 'intellectuals' which, to me at any rate, comes with unfortunate connotations and instead I will refer to 'thinkers', a more neutral term with which I am comfortable.
The first post that caught my attention began my day with a smile because it reported a 10-year study on the efficacy of taking vitamin supplements as a means of beating cancer. There is none! Or, to be precise, and in order to avoid the same trap into which some 'intellectual' scientists fall:
"It actually makes a great deal of sense that this study found such results, which after all, could still be wrong, since chance cannot be discounted. Our biology is so exceptionally complex that it could just as easily be that some percentage are helped by vitamins and an equal number, with different biochemistry, are harmed." [My emphasis]
As the author points out, so little is known of the 30,000 proteins in the human body and their unbelievably complex interactions which operate in a series of "multi-layered feedback loops" and to date no-one has a clear understanding of the "roles of sugars and other cell membrane constituents that [partially] control where proteins exert their efforts". Ah, yes, "the mystery of things".
The second post is on the subject of dendrology, or again to be precise, on the subject of the statistical methods employed by those dendrologists (intellectuals to a man!) who claim to have proven anthropogenic global warming (AGW) by the study of tree rings and lake sediments. It was this particular piece of scientific endeavour that led to the (in)famous 'hockey stick' graph, beloved of Al Gore, 'Little Willy' and other, er, intellectuals, which purports to show a fairly straight line of global temperatures until the 20th c.when suddenly it kicks up into a hockey stick shape proving man's malignant influence.

Now let me introduce you to Willis Eschenbach, a self-described "amateur scientist" and, in my opinion, a thinker of the first order who is the author of the second post.
This is a rather technical paper, most of which passed over my head, but the aim of his self-imposed task was to test the statistical veracity of the 'hockey stick' graph. This graph was first produced by Prof. Michael E. Mann and others, and it, and its subsequent follow-up papers, are usually referred to, with reverence by scientific intellectuals, as 'Mann et al'. They used measurements of tree rings from a variety of different sources plus analysis of lake sediments as proxies to establish northern hemisphere temperatures for the last 1000 years. Here is the graph showing the 95 Mann proxies:

However, when Eschenbach analysed them he found that the proxies that cause the 'flick-up' in the graph came from just two particular sets of proxies.

The top 3 proxies are all from the Lake Tiljander sediment readings and it is sufficient to say that the original paper which Mann et al used for the construction of their graph has been the subject of severe criticism from various quarters long before Eschenbach looked at it. Of the next 25 proxies, 19 of them came from one particular and specific group, "high-altitude southwestern US "stripbark" pines (bristlecones, foxtails, etc)". In other words, or to be exact, in Eschenbach's words: "When these are removed, the hockeystick shape disappears entirely." The graph then looks like this:

Or, as flat as a witch's tit, as we intellectuals like to put it! So it appears that the entire 'hockey stick' stitch-up was based on just two specific sets of readings at two specific places, one of which has proved impossible to replicate. Or as Eschenbach puts it "The problem is that a number of closely related records from one geographical area can easily overwhelm and dominate the common signal. This makes it clear that closely related groups of proxies should be averaged before inclusion, to prevent the domination of the common signal". Even a mathematical dud like me can work that one out!
I will leave the last words to Eschenbach, a truly great 'thinker', as opposed to an 'intellectual, who describes himself as a "self-taught amateur scientist". When quizzed as to why he doesn't publish this work for peer-review (so beloved of the likes of 'Little Willy') he readily admits to his own limitations and indeed urges readers of the post to send in criticisms before he offers his paper to the journals.
"Why publish here? I am a self-taught amateur scientist. As such, my knowledge is extensive and need-driven rather than comprehensive. For all I know, [...] the heavyweights in statistics will come along and say "Oh, that's Jacobsen's method, see "Journal of Arcane Statistics 1957". Plus if there's errors, I'd rather find them here … In fact, I'm hoping someone does say it's a known method, it will save me the trouble of re-writing this for a journal."
What a difference in attitude compared to the secretive and fequently discourteous refusal of the so-called AGW scientific 'intellectuals' who consistently refuse or thwart access to their statistical codes.
There is, it seems to me, only one approach to the understanding of "the mystery of things" and that is rigour, openess and - constant doubt.
Worth reading:
http://shrinkwrapped.blogs.com/blog/2008/11/some-thoughts-on-complexity.html#more
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4428
There are many personal blogs (links) from people working in Mercy Ships at
http://mercyshipslinks.blogspot.com
Very interesting reads...