Can't, shan't, won't!

Alan Sullivan, or 'my other set of eyes', as I fondly think of him, links to an essay by David P. Goldman (aka, 'Spengler') in The Asia Times.  This will give you a brief flavour of his speculations concerning Asia but if you are of a nervous disposition it may be wise to avoid it:

India can't let the fundamentalist side of the Pakistani military take power without responding.

Iran can't let Pakistan's Sunnis crush the 20% Shi'ite minority.

Israel can't allow for the possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons.

Saudi Arabia can't let Iran dominate Iraq.

Turkey can't let Iraq's Kurds form an independent state.

China can't let Turkey agitate among the 100 million Muslim ethnic Turks within its borders.

And all this volatitility, including four (maybe five)* nuclear powers, which might lead to a chain re-action not altogether different from the Balkans in 1914 is taking place just as America under Obama is quietly but deliberately taking steps to downgrade itself as a super-power and retire from the field. 

I say again, British leaders need to start now in thinking ahead to a world in which the USA is either too weak or too indifferent to play its part in world affairs, or even worse, as I speculated the other day, it positively sides with totalitarian states.

* In (yet another) momentary 'brain fade' I wrote of two nuclear powers but, of course, in the list there are four and one potential.

Comments

[dearieme]

But suppose that we hadn't joined in the First World War, if we'd just left it to the Krauts to defeat (presumably) and loot the Frogs, much as they did in 1870, and then defeat (presumably) and loot The Bear. We might have been better off than bankrupting ourselves to help an ungrateful France. The Yanks might similarly be better off leaving the Asians to it, announcing that they will defend their own vital interests, and nothing else. Though who would believe them?

[David Duff]

Oh Lord, 'DM', not that old WWI bone again! I accept the general thrust of your argument, as so many of the old Liberal party did at the time, but the fact is that as a maritime nation whose wealth and strength depended on freedom of shipping to and from the rest of the world, we really could not contemplate the German fleet in French anchorages on the Atlantic and in the Med. It would only have been a matter of time before the loonies in Berlin, led by the psychotic Kaiser, began to cause us severe trouble.

As to American policy today, there may (but may not) be good reasons for them to withdraw, but that will leave the rest of the democracies feeling a very chill wind. I repeat my opinion from above, in such a very new, at least new since 1941, situation in which the USA retires from the field - leaving it wide open for others - we, the british, need to plan ahead. The chances of anyone doing that are, I suggest, vanishingly tiny!

[dearieme]

Oh, I can see the counter-argument on WWI perfectly well - I incline to it myself. But where is the modern equivalent of Kaiser Bill? The muslim loonies don't count - they are a much smaller threat and must be dealt with by quite different methods. As for the other democracies - we could always start by trying to exploit the fact that we are in island - or, at least, the lion's share of an archipelago. Apart from the US, the only remotely attractive ally available is La Belle France - frightening, innit?

[dearieme]

While we're at it, shouldn't The Bear figure somewhere on that list?

[David Duff]

Hmmmn! Well, I have been urging others to think ahead concerning the grand strategic problems we would face in a world without an active America so I suppose I had better try doing it myself. I'll ponder on't and post on it later.

Apropos 'The Bear', I would dearly love to encourage a divide between them and the Chinese but quite how, I do not know.

[JK]

Might take a read here David, and keep in mind this (former) Secretary of State has (on American TV no less) stated, "I have fundamental differences with the current Administration."

http://www.newsweek.com/id/216704/page/1

(I haven't asked, but ever since your visit to Prague - what the hell is it with these colored squares alongside comments?)

[David Duff]

Thanks, 'JK', I'll take a look later. As for the squares, don't ask me, ask Cherie-Sue-Charlene from California, I have it on good authority that she owns and runs TypePad and they just started when my back was turned in Prague. I hate them but can't be arsed to do anything about it!

[Lawrence Duff]

Testing linked Url's http://www.microsoft.com/en/us/default.aspx

S.o.D