I think the great 'will she, won't she?' question concerning the liklehood of Mrs. Palin running against Obama in 2012 has been answered, implicitly if not explicitly. Alex Massie, in a thoughtful essay in The Coffee House, reckons 2012 is her one and only chance. He points to an article by Jay Newton-Small who explains that Washington insiders - always the last to know about anything - have been taken by surprise by Mrs. Palin's declarations to the authorities on her political endorsements and sponsors. She has the money and a small but effective team. The Beltway experts have been surprised because she has not done any of the things that potential candidates should do, for example, desperately courting officials in Iowa and New Hampshire, and hiring scores of pollsters and advisors. She isn't even bothering to cosy up to the Republican party hierarchy - and given their level of uselessness, how wise she is. Instead, she has been courting the Tea Party movement. Now I confess that I am not at all sure just exactly how wide and how deep this Tea Party movement goes in America. I think it is significant but only an election will prove it one way or another. Obviously Mrs. Palin thinks it is crucial. As Newton-Small points out, her approach to the presidency from the outfield mirrors her tactics in Alaska when she nicked the governorship from under the nose of an establishment figure.
As to whether or not she will win, well here, Alex Massie is doubtful. A lot will depend on her ability to pick and run a good team. However, one important factor that he fails to mention is the quality of her opponent. Obama's popularity is sinking faster than BP's share price! The Democrat party is, so far, hugely unpopular and 'experts' who thought it unlikely that the Republicans could actually take the House, are now even considering the earth-moving possibility that they could win the Senate as well! At a recent meeting between the White House and various Democrat governors, heated words were exchanged as the Governors complained that they faced extinction if the Obama regime did not change its ways. If the Dems are slaughtered in November, will 'HillBilly' decide that her time has come, too? And will the Dem caucus back her and drop Obama? "'Tis a consumation / Devoutly to be wished".
Sarah vs. Hillary: the Fight of the Century!
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