Terrorism in perspective

In this week's Spectator Alan Judd (no link yet but it will come up later) takes a long, cool look at terrorism in all its forms and gives us hope.  To begin with he tells us that the execution of bin Laden will neither accelerate or delay the demise of Al Qa'eda which is withering before our eyes already.  He suggests that the power of the organisation peaked at 9/11 and has been dwindling ever since.  Some 75% of its original leadership have either been killed or captured along with some 35,000 of its 'foot soldiers'.  In a telling comparison he points out that:

The number of Americans killed by terrorism since 9/11 roughly equals the number who drowned in their baths.

He reminds us that:

[T]errorist groups have a natural lifespan.  They generally last an average of around eight years, nearly always failing to achieve their objectives and collapsing through internal decay, in fighting, repression and loss of popular support.

Any similarity to Labour in Scotland is entirely coincidental!  Those that do last longer do so mainly because their cause is linked to some sort of nationalism, territorial claims or because they become social movements.

The problem for the future is that now, in the age of the computer, all the techniques honed by previous terrorist groups are available on the net to anyone with a grievance, so the threat is constant.  However, it needs to be set in perspective:

There has only ever been one terrorist attack with casualties in the thousands and about 19 over the past 25-plus years in the hundreds, while the overwhelming majority have killed fewer than ten.  From a peak of 22,000 attacks in 2007 (of which 6,200 were in Iraq), killing about 22,000, the trend ahs been downwards.  Compare that with roughly 2 million deaths worldwide  every year.

So, all life is precious and the threat is constant but we do need to keep it in proportion.  

Comments

[Dom]

The idea that killing Bin Laden made no difference, is answered by Norm Geras:

http://normblog.typepad.com/normblog/2011/05/the-difference-it-makes.html

[dearieme]

I'll believe that Americans really disapprove of terrorism when they desist from singing the praises of John Brown.

[Hank]

DM

I haavn't anyone sing about John Brown except as part of a Civil War retrospective in years Actually since I was a teenager. There is somtihg about "a molting in the grave" that goes well with teenage male adolesents. But no was endorcing his actions.

[dearieme]

"In the demise of a reactionary murdering theocrat ..." says Geras: since he's agin capital punishment (I assume) the "murdering" is not relevant. So it seems to boil down to 'elderly Marxist approves of killing of reactionary theocrat', which is surely no surprise, is it?

[Sassyandra]

Norm makes sense, I think.
Makes a nice change.

[JK]

I've a feeling David, you ain't gonna be too interested in the link I'm about to post - not because it offers support to Mr. Judd's observations - rather the math.

And the fact is, the link itself offers the merest glimmer of explanation for the fragmentation of terrorist groups - rather you'd have to find some justification for Memsahib as to why you need the 61 minutes and 41 seconds to devote to listening to the complete podcast available at the end.

http://sciblogs.co.nz/misc-ience/2010/09/13/the-mathematics-of-war/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+miscience+%28misc.ience%29

[David Duff]

I have never been very convinced by the importance of particular individuals as role models for 'wannabe' terrorists. Yes, it has an effect but it never lasts. Bin Laden's was fading years ago. Oddly enough, I think Norm is wrong to think that his mythical stature has been diminished by his execution. Some reports indicate that amongst Pakistani opinion the thought of heavily armed Americans 'invading' their country for the sole purpose of 'murdering' a frail old man has re-enforced their anti-western feelings.

Obviously, from his second paragraph Norm has not been a student of the learned discussion conducted on another comment thread here at D&N on the subject of 'forgiveness'. I must take it that in Norm's Marxist view the brotherhood of mankind failed to include bin Laden!

[David Duff]

Only just received your comment and link, JK, but I'm delighted to hear from you. There were some very alarming reports on the 'telly' the other night of the floods in Arkansas and I hope all is well with you and yours.

[JK]

I live in the Ozarks David (I'm pretty sure my elevation is 794' above msl) so where my residence is - I'm good - unless I want to go to the liquor store, which...

Anyway to get to anyplace, I'd be forced to a lower elevation - and that wouldn't be good. There's an old Hillbilly sayin' "I'll be there if the creeks dont rise."

I'm staying put.

[David Duff]

Very sensible and I'm sure you have a large stockpile to be getting by with!

[JK]

Thanks. In hindsight, knowing how to link to satellites comes in handy where stockpiling copious quantities ahead of events can be assured.

For those unfamiliar (but interested) Arkansas is smack-dab in the middle of the so-called "Bible Belt" and features such statutory crap as 'Dry Counties' - for me to purchase beer, I must travel from my county, to Baxter County. 50 miles round-trip. The link explains (unusually brief for me David) why I'm not going.

http://www.baxterbulletin.com/article/20110509/NEWS01/105090325/Woman-found-dead-submerged-car-Bull-Shoals-Lake

[David Duff]

Hmmmn! Tough country.

[Hank]

David

Sone one has a GREAT IDEA that must simply be imposed on every one. But he can’t do it by political means (most likely because it is totally wacky) so he has to go to the famous “other means”. since he does not have an army so he goes to terrorism. However terrorism is expensive. Much less expensive than a tank or fighter plane but compared to our incomes - expensive.

The real way to fight terrorism is not the poor schmucks who get sent to blow themselves up, thought they have to be stopped, but to find the financiers and organizers.

Mr. bin Ladin’s death certainly will speed up the demise of AQ.

But more importantly it will cause other potential organizers to ponder the possibility that the poor schmucks will not be the only ones killed. I think there is a certain benefit in helping discourage others from using terrorism to achieve there goals.