Now here's a juicy wrangle to chew upon!

I do not wish to sound my usual flippant self on this topic because some 300 people have died and several men face criminal responsibility charges.  The topic has been reported elsewhere but, with other important matters playing out in the news, it has been pushed to the inside pages.  My remarks are based on the report at the Nature site.  Apart from the particular complexities of this case, there are very much wider implications for science in general and us in particular.

I will try to sum up the story briefly but read the full report for the details.  In 2009 an earthquake hit the medieval town of L'Aquila in Italy.  This town, situated in a traditional area of earthquakes, had been suffering low-level tremors for several months and the population was becoming increasingly worried.  The general tenor of the information put out by the Italian scientists specialising in earthquakes was that periods of frequent low-level shocks, known as 'seismic swarms', rarely precede major earthquakes.  Note the word 'rarely' which is not the same as 'never'!  (This is, perhaps, an example of 'consensus science', an expression all too familiar to those of us who follow the global warming (AGW) controversy.) 

However, in this case there was, as in AGW, a 'denier'.  A local man who, whilst having a scientific background, did not have any high-ranking degrees to his name and who had not published, with peer review, the results of his scientific enquiries.  Instead of analysing seismic patterns, he measured re-actions in the radon gas which is endemic in the area.  He published his results and predicted that a 'quake was highly probable.  The local authorities, irritated by the alarm his reports were causing in the local population, took legal action against him on the 30th March 2009 - and on that day a 4.1 magnitude tremor shook the town of L'Aquila.  By now the townspeople were really worried and in response the authorities called on the top seismic scientists to hold their scheduled meeting at which their latest findings were to be evaluated in L'Aquila rather than Rome, which they duly did. An announcement, of sorts, was made by two of the scientists, the mayor and a civil servant to the waiting reporters in which they attempted to translate scientific complexities into language suitable for non-scientists which would be further 'translated' by the popular press.

The result is best described as a shambles of misunderstandings, mis-statements and mistakes.  The local people were somewhat pacified but then, on the 6th April, the town was hit by a 5.1 'quake and the ancient buildings collapsed killing 308 people.  To add one further ingredient to this witch's brew, in 1985 a man in charge of civil protection in the earthquake zone was investigated after he ordered the evacuation of several villages because of the threat of a severe seismic shock - but nothing happened!

So here we have a nice mixture of professional science and 'amateur' science, language and liability, mathematics and understanding, probability and probity.  I would not wish to be a judge in this matter.  I hope to return to this fascinating and intricate tale tomorrow, provided I have recovered from having a tooth out in the morning!

 

Comments

[JK]

"The local authorities, irritated by the alarm his reports were causing in the local population, took legal action against him on the 30th March 2009 - and on that day a 4.1 magnitude tremor shook the town of L'Aquila."

Litigious town, that L'Aquila.

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html

h/t hbd chick

[JK]

Oops.

Shoulda clicked your link first. sorry.