The title of my sermon on this beautiful Sunday as the church bells next door peal out for morning service is taken from the nearly sacred text of my Oxford English Dictionary. It adds a figurative meaning to the word "Implode" as in "suffer sudden economic and political collapse". Yes, I think that sums it up nicely as I turn my attention to the creaking, groaning structure 'just over there' in Europe. Whilst I jump up and down with excitement, throwing stones like a little boy hoping to bring the building down, I must confess that I still do harbour some doubts as to whether or not it is really finished. The folly of monumentally stupid politicians who have invested their entire reputations in pursuit of some chimera or other should never be underestimated, nor their determination to prop the wreckage up long after all hope has gone (see: German WWI leadership, passim). However, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Daily Telegraph has no such doubts and offers you all a simple catechism to repeat:
THERE WILL BE NO FISCAL UNION.
THERE WILL BE NO EUROBONDS.
THERE WILL BE NO DEBT POOL.
THERE WILL BE NO EU TREASURY.
THERE WILL BE NO FISCAL TRANSFERS IN PERPETUITY.
THERE WILL BE A STABILITY UNION – OR NO MONETARY UNION
So that's alright, then! He places his faith in the German people who, he maintains, are gradually awakening to the idea that the European Union is actually a danger to them:
Something profound has changed. Germans have begun to sense that the preservation of their own democracy and rule of law is in conflict with demands from Europe. They must choose one or the other.
Yet Europe and the world are so used to German self-abnegation for the EU Project – so used to the teleological destiny of ever-closer Union – that they cannot seem to grasp the fact. It reminds me of 1989 and the establishment failure to understand the Soviet game was up.
However, a gleam of hope may be discerned emanating from the unlikely source of Herr Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German Finance Minister, no less. According to a report in France24, he has stressed that there will be no more money from Germany for any future bail outs:
"The European Financial Stability Facility has a ceiling of 440 billion euros ($590 billion), 211 billion of which is down to Germany. And that is it. Finished," he told the magazine Super-Illu.
He also suggested the European Stability Mechanism, which is due to replace the EFSF by 2013 at the latest, would be smaller.
"Then it will be only a matter of 190 billion in total, for which we will be guarantors, including interest," he explained.
Well, that may be true and the polls indicate increasing disillusionment on the part of the German people but what can they do about it? The vote last week showed that all the main political parties were in favour of propping up the edifice with German money. Just like us in Britain, there is no credible alternative to vote for in an election because virtually all of their politicians are on the Brussels-Berlin gravy train.
All the experts I have read consider that the last deal which Merkel succeeded in passing through the Bundestag by exerting almost intolerable strains on her own party is nowhere near enough to deal with forthcoming emergencies and that more will be needed, much more. But all these efforts might come to nought if 'plucky little Slovakia' votes it down!
'Be careful what you wish for' some sage once said and so I am trying to restrain my enthusiasm for the total collapse of the EU. I am forcing myself to try and look at it from our own, British, long-term interests. My real objection to the EU is that we are inside it - well, we have one foot in the door, if you like. I can see no advantage to that whatsoever, in fact it is the worst of all possible worlds in that we must not only suffer but also pay for 'the slings and arrows' of Brussels-Berlin bossing us about with very few advantages. On the other hand, the French have a point in their policy of cuddling Germany so tightly that it can never again try to pull its jackboots on. If the EU collapses, Germany will be free to dominate Europe overtly rather than covertly as it is now doing. There is, I suggest, some advantage to us of withdrawing altogether leaving Germany to run its own hotch-potch European 'empire', an aim they have sought for a hundred years. After all, we know all about running empires, they seem like a frightfully good idea when you begin but they end up costing you a fortune and giving you loads of trouble and strife.
Anyway, put your tin hats on, there will be an enormous crash when that edifice 'just over there' finally collapses.
(Please note that I am reliably informed that it is my 47th wedding anniversary tomorrow and thus today I am lunching 'not wisely but too well'! My next post later today might, therefore, be even more incoherent than usual.)
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