DUFF & NONSENSE!

Courage of a different order

I am grateful to my e-pal, JK, for pointing me to this site which adds to my knowledge of the events leading up to Pearl Harbour and highlights the moral courage of a truly remarkable officer in the USN:

Admiral J. O. Richardson was placed in command of the Pacific fleet in late 1939 on the personal diktat of Roosevelt, himself.  However, Richardson was obviously a man remarkable not only for his shrewd judgment in naval matters but also for his absolute honesty and his sense of duty in reporting his doubts and concerns to the highest in the land.

It is important to understand that prior to 1941 the entire American leadership knew, but refused to face up to the knowledge, that the Philippines were a lost cause.  The Pacific fleet was so run down that it was incapable of mounting any sort of major initiative across to the western Pacific.  And yet, the plan was that when war broke out the fleet would immediately sail west into battle against the Japanese fleet which, it was assumed, would be leading and protecting its invasion forces.  No-one dared "speak truth to power", except Adm. Richardson:

Almost from the start, Richardson clashed with his superiors over their plans for the Pacific Fleet. In January 1940, Admiral Richardson advised the Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Harold Stark, that existing plans for war with Japan were unrealistic [...]

Richardson personally informed the then Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) that, in effect, the entire American strategy was moonshine.  Later, the CNO recalled the conversation:

"Pointing out the lack of advanced bases, the the slow pace of updating the fleet's offensive and defensive characteristics, the fact there were fatal shortages in ammunition replacements and backup stocks of fuel, spare parts and essential supplies and the tenders and logistical ships needed to support an advanced-positioned fleet--he was saying, in plain and understandable language, that the Navy wasn't ready for war. Step by step, he dismantled my confident belief that the U.S. Navy could win a quick decision. Instead, proceeding from our deficiencies, he foresaw the United States hanging on for a couple of years while the country and the service built the strength necessary for an offensive campaign, then a hard fight of a year or two before victory could be won."

 

 Unfortunately for him, and American servicemen, particularly those tasked to defend the indefensible Philippines under the blustering leadership of the appalling Gen. MacArthur, Richardson kept repeating his doubts whilst at the same time:



[M]embers of Roosevelt's inner circle (including Navy Secretary Frank Knox) were asserting that the U.S. fleet could finish off the Japanese in only three months.



Suddenly he was out of favour with the president and his cronies and his tenure as CINCPAC was abruptly ended after little more than a year.  Let these words be a suitable testament to an officer who put duty above career and reputation:





Sadly, only World War II buffs and naval historians are familiar with the courageous stand of J.O. Richardson. At the cost of his own career, Admiral Richardson stood on principle, trying to avert a military disaster that he believed could be averted, by returning the fleet to San Diego and engaging in the preparations needed to ready the Navy for war.

 

Richardson's integrity and candor offer an important lesson for military leaders--or anyone in a position to advise decision-makers. Even in that rarefied air, it is essential to tell "the boss" what they need to hear--not what they want to hear. Admirlal Richardson did just that, realizing his advice might fall on deaf ears and result in his dismissal. It's regrettable that so many of his peers failed to follow his shining example in the days before Pearl Harbor.

 

I'll drink to that!

 

 

So, tell me Buddy, who'll it be, Janus Romney or Janus Gingrich?

One by one the balloons flown by the various hopefuls for the GOP nomination have been picked off.  Yes, there are still a few floating but it is now generally reckoned to have narrowed down to a Romney vs. Gingrich slug-fest.  As 'the Kraut' points out in his recent WaPo column, in some ways they represent, Janus-like, the two faces on the same coin:

Bust of the God Janus in the Vatican museum

Personally, I am bitterly disappointed.  I have said before, and I shall repeat it without shame, that today America, or at least the America I know and admire (for all its faults), stands boozing in the Last Chance Saloon.  As 'the Kraut' puts it so much better than me I will quote him with my emphasis added:

This is a weak Republican field with two significantly flawed front-runners contesting an immensely important election. If Obama wins, he will take the country to a place from which it will not be able to return (which is precisely his own objective for a second term).

Again, and I admit it required little in the way of sagacity, I did say that one should never under-estimate the GOP's ability to pick a second-rate runner.  Now they seem to have two!  No-one seems able to discern a drop of ideology inside Mitt Romney who is, without doubt, 'a Man for All Seasons'.  Equally, Gingrich has genuine battle honours to display (when, back in the '90s, he almost single-handedly wrested control of the House from the Dems) but also has matching bloopers of profound silliness (like the toe-curling film which is now viral on the net showing him and Nancy Pelosi - yes, her! - sitting side by side on a bench and agreeing that global warming was an imminent danger to Mankind).

It is with gloomy forebodings that 'the Kraut' ends his piece thus:

Every conservative has thus to ask himself two questions: Who is more likely to prevent that second term? And who, if elected, is less likely to unpleasantly surprise?

 

Not 'Tora, Tora, Tora' but 'Testing, Testing, Testing'!

Yahoo News reports a speech by Chinese President Hu Jintao who, amongst other slightly sinister rumblings, said this:

The navy should "accelerate its transformation and modernisation in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security." (My emphasis) 

I am now going to offer you one of those double-handed commentaries.  On the one hand, there is absolutely nothing remarkable about a national leader urging his military forces to be prepared for war, and today (7th December) of all days our American friends will be rueing the time 70 years ago when they forgot that good practice!  But on the other hand, it is not normal for a Head of State to say this quite so loudly and clearly and one wonders what, in particular, has prompted it.  Look no further than this map for an answer:

The red dotted line shows the extent of China's claim to sovereignty over the South China Sea not, of course, because they need the space for their dragon canoes to run races but because the whole sea bed is stuffed full of oil!  Well, not all of it but a lot of it.

Now, relax, we don't necessarily have to reach for our nuclear six-shooters.  China's claim is greedy - and who isn't when there's oil at stake like there is around the Falklands? - but it appears not to be based on international law.  And, naturally, all the smaller nations around the South China Sea want their piece of the action, too.  So a fascinating game of high diplomacy is about to begin and America is going to need to apply the brains of its very best geo-strategic thinkers in deciding how and when to apply its own pressures to the situation.  China is like one of those little boys who suddenly in their teens grow into great hulking giants with a tendency to throw their weight around.  Exactly how the Americans deal with this problem will have enormous repercussians in the future because this dispute is but the first of many.  As I remarked in an earlier post, the decision needs to be reconfirmed that the USA does indeed think that the Pacific Ocean is an American ocean and the possible election of Ron Paul, an isolationist, would answer that in the negative.

Not the least interested of outside observers will be the myriad small-ish nations of South East Asia who will watch and weigh American diplomacy.  Let us all hope that it is not found wanting - again!

 

"A date which will live in infamy"

At 07.02 this morning (but 70 years ago!) a young American trainee-operator using adapted British radar equipment spotted some unidentified planes approaching from a distance of 137 miles.  In fact he should have switched his machine off at 07.00 hours because there was a considerable infighting between the Signal Corps who were responsible for introducing this new equipment and the Army Air Corps who were to operate it.  It had been agreed that the machine would only be switched on between 04.00 and 07.00.  The young operator immediately telephoned his Duty Officer to report the sighting. Lt. Tyler was alone with only a telephone switchboard operator for company.  He told the radar-man not worry because they were expecting a flight of B-17s due in this morning.  Lt. Tyler was blameless,not least because there were no liaison officers present from the navy, the Marines or the Army Bomber Command.  Lt. Tyler was himself a fighter pilot with absolutely no experience of handling a control room.

It was Sunday on the island of Oahu in Hawaii, and despite the fact that the news for the last few months had been concentrated on the mounting tension between Japan and the USA, both the Navy C-in-C and the Army C-in-C on the Island had stood everybody down for the weekend.  No special measures had been taken to defend the fleet or the massed aircaft.

In fact a second alarm had been raised at 06.53 via the navy, but since none of the services spoke to each other, the warning failed to spread.  Navy Lt. Kaminski was the Duty Officer at the Harbour Control Post when he received a report from the destroyer, USS Ward, which had attacked what it thought was an an unknown submarine close by the entrance to Pearl Harbour.  Kaminski, like his Air Corps comrade, Tyler, was alone with just one telephone operator.  However, he had a checklist of over half a dozen senior officers to contact should any alarm be raised.  At 07.00 he began calling.  He reached various senior officers but they all decided to wait until USS Ward reported again and definitely confirmed the details.  Everything then settled back down to just another peaceful Sunday in Hawaii.

At 07.53, Commander Fuchida, the Japanese officer in command of the entire attack force radioed from his aircraft as he approached Oahu the message the Japanese naval command had waited to hear: "Tora! Tora! Tora!"  Arguably the greatest surprise attack in the history of the world had been launched - and caught their enemy completely unawares.  More than that, however, the American forces actually made the job even easier by laying out their ships and aircraft as though for sacrifice.  As Fuchida reported later, "I had seen all German warships assembled in Kiel Harbour, I have also seen the French battleships in Brest.  And finally, I have seen our own warships assembled for review before the Emperor, but I have never seen ships, even in the deepest peace, anchored at a distance less than 500 to a 1,000 yards from each other . . ."  Not only that but no anti-torpedo nets had been deployed round the ships, and the aircraft were lined up in neat rows to make strafing and bombing them all the easier.

Incredibly during the middle of this first wave attack the B-17s made their  scheduled appearance, short of fuel and attacked by the Japanese - and their own nervous AA gunners - nevertheless they made it down safely.  There was a short respite at 08.30 as the first wave departed but at 09.00 the second wave appeared.  This was met with a much more spirited defence as the Americans gathered their wits and fought back with whatever they had - which was not much!  By 10.00 the skies cleared and the stunned Americans were left alone to look at the damage.  Six battleships sunk or sinking; two other battleships, three cruisers and three destroyers damaged.  Almost 3,600 men either killed or wounded.  On the airfields all was death and destruction. One hundred and eighty planes had been destroyed and 128 others damaged.  At the Marine air base and also at the Navy air base there was not a single plane able to fly.

At noon on the following day, President Roosevelt broadcast to his nation, "Yesterday, December 7, 1941, a date which will live in infamy, the United States was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of Japan".  Within the hour the Congress, with one dissenting vote, approved the declaration of war against Japan.  It is worth remembering the owner of that one dissenting vote because she stands as a practical example, as well as a shining beacon, for the very essence of democracy and liberty.

 

She was Miss Jeannette Pickering Rankin, a Republican but a lifetime pacifist.  Needless to say, her Republican party leaders put her under tremendous pressure to change her vote but she stood her ground.  A foolish woman, obviously, but I raise a glass to her memory!

(My post is based heavily on Ronald H. Spector's book Eagle Against the Sun)

'What's it all about, Mervyn?'

What's it all about, Mervyn?
Is it just for the moment we live?
What's it all about when you sort it out, Mervyn?
Are we meant to take more than we give
or are we meant to be kind?
And if only fools are kind, Mervyn,
then I guess it's wise to be cruel.
And if life belongs only to the strong, Mervyn,
what will you lend on an old golden rule?

I slightly paraphrase the old song "What's it all about, Alfie" because 'them what knows' all came to more or less the same conclusion following the Bank of England chairman, Mervyn King's, last press conference - he said nowt!  This, I gather, made hardened City watchers break into a sweat.  Being a gentleman, of course, I merely perspire but when I try and get my head around what will actually happen if the euro goes pop then I confess my perspiration turns to rivulets!  Not least because the fact is that I'm not too sure what exactly would happen.

Chris Marshall on CityWire attempts to answer the question.  First, he tries to asses the fall out from a Greek withdrawal:

If Greece alone left the euro club then the impact could be startling. Such would be the lack of confidence in the future of the eurozone that the pound – which has actually been falling against the euro – would rise 25% against the single currency.

According to one bank estimate that would cause an immediate drop of 10% in British exports, however, given that Europe is poised to fall into recession as well, then that could produce a 25% fall.  Apparently we, or to be precise, our banks, are into the Greeks for about £8bn.  However, much of that has either been written off or at least written down, so we could live with it.  Moving into the truly scarey possibility that the entire euro-zone goes belly-up, would mean that the entire British banking system would need government money (or my money, as I fondly think of it) because they are into it to the tune of £653bn, or, 42% of GDP!

Beyond that, says Mr Marshall, "the speculative fog starts to roll in".  Quite so, and here's another verse from another song:

My eyes are dim I cannot see,
I have not brought my specs with me,
I have not bought my specs with me.

 

Now it begins: gently so far but . . .

More riots in Athens.  The 'Merkozies' might propose but in the end the people will dispose, especially in this day and age when people in the most unlikely of places have risen up and dismissed or curtailed (or even killed) their leaders.  Why would the Euro-elites think it any different here from, say, Damascus, or even, good grief, Moscow!  I read somewhere recently but I forget where that the new regime in Athens has begun collecting back taxes by the simple expedient of adding the amounts to peoples' electricity accounts.  Failure to pay means that their electricity is cut off - in the middle of winter!  However, already civil disobedience has begun by the utility workers returning later on their own initiative and reconnecting people's power, particularly if they are poor or elderly. So it begins but it will not end there.  It is only a matter of time before the victims of German imposed austerity, as they think of it, take a more extreme line of action.  It is bad enough when a people rebel against their own leadership but when they take on what they think of as foreign domination then matters will become very nasty indeed.

 

Random thoughts on a totally random situation

"I think we're in chaos theory territory these days, not Newtonian theory: it just doesn't succumb to analysis."  Thus spake, or rather, wrote, 'SoD' (Son of Duff) in a comment to the previous post.  Such wisdom - where does he get it from, I wonder?  It seems to me that the 'Merkozies' are attempting to solve the wrong problem.  It has been true since day one that the rules governing national budgets inside the euro-zone were far too weak, but then, it was not thought possible to impose them years ago when the object of the exercise was to entice the various peoples into the trap.  But now, there is 'no more Mr. Nice Guy', the smile has slipped from the face of the Tiger. 

However, before all those complicated changes to rules and regulations can be implemented, a process which might take years not months, in the dealing rooms of the world those ghastly animals with their red braces are already salivating at the prospect of turmoil in the markets when, of course, the quick of wit and the brave of heart can make fortunes.  Are they going to wait around for a year or more?  I don't think so.

And if pandemonium strikes, the 'Merkozies' will end up looking more like Greek-Italians than north Europeans!  Today Spiegel has an article warning that the second biggest bank in Germany, Commerzbank, a quarter of which is already owned by the government, might need to be totally nationalised.  Also, Deutsche Bank, is looking more than somewhat uneasy.  The German  banks are already seething at being forced to accept a 'haircut' on Greek bonds and they are not at all happy at the new capital requirements due to be enforced next year.  If they meet them they will have to cut down on their usual banking activity which will hit German business.  If the German banking sector is in difficulties then one is stretched to find an appropriate word to describe the French banks - merde springs to mind!

The brutal fact of the matter is that the euro-zone is broke, it's broke now, today, this very minute, and plans to solve problems in 2013 and onward are simply of academic interest.  Again, there are only two end-games for teh here and now.  Either the euro-zone splits, or, Germany picks up the bill!

 

PLEASE READ THIS

I am very, very, grateful to my e-pal, Ortega, for providing me with a link to a superb analysis of the current 'state of the game' in Europe.  Written by Dr. Tony Corn for The Small Wars Journal it is immensely detailed and obviously based on considerable expertise both in current affairs and history - which is not to say that it is irrefutable, of course.  In many ways it describes and elucidates in exacting detail some of my own amateurish fumblings towards an understanding of what is going on.  I cannot recommend this article too highly, indeed, if you are seeking for some understanding of what is going on 'just over there' then this is essential reading.  Once again, to Ortega - muchísimas gracias.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/toward-a-gentler-kinder-german-reich#comment-form

 

Schadenfreude is so mean-spirited - but so delicious!

And this, dear reader, is Schadenfreude writ large but if you are in a pleasant, equable sort of mood today then read no further, you will only be ashamed of yourself for giggling.  On the other hand, if you are feeling grouchy-grumpy, like me, then you will positively relish this story, courtesy of The Mail, and you will feel not the teeniest pang of conscience.

It all happened in Japan.  Just another tedious motorway pile-up and happily no-one was seriously hurt but the tears of anguish were probably close to tsunami levels!  Now, I must ask you seriously, please keep a straight face, I do not want to see any undue merriment at other people's misfortunes, you see, this particular 'fender-bender' involved:

eight Ferraris, three Mercedes, a Lamborghini, and a Skyline, as well as a Prius hybrid that was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Now look, I told you, absolutely no giggli . . . oh God! . . . oh my giddy aunt . . .  eight Ferraris . . . oh stop it, I'm hurting . . .  three Mercs and a Lambo . . .  oh please let Jeremy Clarkson be involved  . . .  oh dear, I must take a break to compose myself so I will let you howl over the photos:

Wiped out: Police said the accident occurred on an uphill curve when the 60-year-old driver of the Ferrari leading the pack lost control while trying to overtake another vehicle.

Written off: Sports Nippon estimated the value of the vehicles involved in the crash to be 300million yen (£2.5million)

£2.5 million!!!! - oh God, I'm off again . . . pass the Kleenex, some-one . . .

 

Who gives a flying, er, fig what they think?

Definitely not the best way to start my day!  On the 'telly' and on my news pages nothing else but sundry wiseacres telling my why the rioters rioted.  Who the hell cares 'why' they did it?  And who has the time and money to waste going around and asking them, and then spending even more time and money trying to translate the clicks and grunts they use for language?  Well, of course, step forward and take a bow, or at least, bend over, the 'London-Libyan School of Economics' and 'The Gruaniad'.  The first has money coming out of the orifice nearest its brain, stuffed in there years ago by the Ghadaffi family - and that's 'family' in the Sicilian sense of the word.  'The Grauniad', of course, in between screeching vituperation at rich people sensibly avoiding tax, fills its time by carefully ensuring that its own tax-avoidance trust is water-proof - how else would they be able to pay their dipstick editor £800k+ and 'Polly Toyboy' enough for her to own a villa in 'Chiantishire'?

In the meantime, who cares what the various thugs, criminals, robbers, drunks and druggies offer up as excuses for what they did?  We all know why they did it - because they are thugs, criminals, robbers, drunks and druggies, that's why.  All I want to know is why the police failed - again - in their basic duty of keeping the peace on the Queen's highway?  Apparently, now we are told, it was because their brand spanking new radio sets did not work and they were reduced to using their own private mobile 'phones for communication.  Will we ever find out who was responsible for that?  Will the London-Libyan School for Dodgy Backhanders ever ask the question?  Or is it likely that 'The Grauniad' will attempt the impossible by sending one of its useless reporters to go and actually investigate?  Don't hold your breath!

Oh, and have a nice day!

 

The Panto season kicks off with 'The Great Russian Election Show'!

Roll up, roll up, fun for all the family at The Great Russian Election Show!  Pantomime and farce at its very best.  And, amazingly, there are only two actors playing all the roles plus a cast of several million extras none of whom has been given any lines.  Even so, 'Vlad the Bad' Putin plays  the villain of the panto, 'Czar Putinplaceforever' and brings gasps of awe from the audience as he struts about the stage 'flexing his pecs' as he does a wonderful routine juggling six lead-filled coshes all at once.

Another terrific performance can be seen from Dmitri Medvedev as the Principle Boy.  The way he shyly enters, tip-toes to centre stage to sing his carefully rehearsed song before giving his thigh an exciting slap and then exiting fast stage left prior to the re-entrance of  'Czar Putinplaceforever', is a delight to behold.

And for sheer spectacle nothing can beat the cast of millions as they end the pantomime with a glorious rendition of 'Trouble, Trouble, Toil and Trouble' before being chased from the stage by a chorus of jolly secret policemen.

Such fun for all the family!

 

"I want to be alone"

Thus spake Greta Garbo although she didn't mean it entirely.  However, I am provoked by my commenter, Rufus, to ask whether a similar sentiment might not be a wise policy for the USA.  In other words, would it be an intelligent decision by the American electorate to choose a candidate, like Ron Paul, who is very intent indeed on bringing the troops home from everywhere followed, one assumes, by the fleets and the air squadrons - to say nothing of the missiles.  All would be disposed inside 'Fortress America' and the world would be left to get on without the interference of Uncle Sam.  In the meantime, Mr. Paul would institute an economic policy which might be described as ultra-Thatcherism but that is not the prime subject for this conversation.

In responding to such a scenario it is necessary, I think, to approach it from two standpoints; first, from the view of an American.  Undoubtedly such a policy of isolation would be very popular in quite a large swathe of the American public who are as sick as we are of seeing their dead soldiers returned in what seems to be a never-ending stream.  Anyway, such a feeling is deeply embedded in the American historical psyche which fiercely resisted any entanglements in either WWI or WWII to both of which they were hauled kicking and struggling.  Only the obvious menace of a threatening Soviet Union kept them in Europe after the war, and only the huge cost of the blood and treasure spent reclaiming the western Pacific made them quick (perhaps too quick) to face up to threats in Korea and Vietnam.

But today is a different world.  The Soviets have collapsed to be reborn as a powerful but inefficient 'thugocracy'.  Anyway, it is long overdue for the Europeans to pick up the bill for defending their own continent.  In the midle-east matters are, as always, exceedingly complex with absolutely no chance ever of a clean decision.  But should America be concerned?  Today, more than ever in the past, the rulers of the Arab world know that they can longer depend on the secret policeman to maintain them in power.  Now the people are prepared to have their say, and to back up their demands with force, and above all, they now insist on a share of the oil riches.  Thus, it is imperative for the oil state leaders to keep the oil flowing and the money rolling in!  In such circumstances the Americans might feel free to simply walk away, the only other tie being the existence of Israel.  Again, it might be thought sufficient to simply supply (sell!) arms to the tiny state and let it fight its own battles which hitherto it has proved to be more than capable of doing successfully.

However, it is in the Pacific that an isolationist America would find the greatest difficulty.  In the lead up to Pearl Harbour, the American leadership realised to their mortification that although they 'owned' the Phillipines, they no longer had the means to defend it.  Thus, the comfortable notion that the Pacific was an American ocean was shown up for the chimera that it was.  The same problem arises today.  Do the Americans still believe that the Pacific is an American ocean?  Do they want it to be that way?  The answer to that provides the answer to the next question which is, exactly how important are South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, and to what extent is America prepared to defend them against a burgeoning China?

Almost certainly Taiwan will in the end come to a sort of 'Hong Kong deal' with China.  But will America be happy to see South Korea left to its own devices in dealing with, first, North Korea and, second, China?  And then there is Japan.  The Chinese do not need long memories to remember the scores that remain to be settled with Japan!  It maybe that they will not need to resort to outright war because if America has well and truly disappeared from the Pacific then Japan will surely come to an accommodation.  As will, of course, the rest of south-east Asia when it realises that the Americans have gone and will not return.

At this point, geo-politics gives way to trade!  The implications of a huge market and manufacturing area, such as south-east Asia represents, falling under the baleful influence and direction of an increasingly ambitious China does not need to be spelled out.  It maybe that Mr. Paul thinks that America can simply put up the tariff walls and make the USA self-sufficient.  If so, he is in denial of his supposedly free-market beliefs - and all commonsense.  And trade looms large these days.  I suspect - I hope - that nations like China will not, in an age of Mutually Assured Destruction, take a decision for war with the likes of the USA in any circumstances.  Indeed, faced with an isolationist 'President Paul' there would be no need because China could achieve all its aims simply by unrelenting pressure of all sorts against smaller nations.  Success in one or two cases will be sufficient to bring others to heel.  Gradually a trade squeeze will be exerted on America.  For example, if all those Japanese and Korean car factories are moved to China along with other Asian manufacturing in the USA that will have a debilitating effect on the American economy.  Any attempt by the USA to raise protective tariffs will be met by the same and American exports will shrink.

The whole concept is fraught with danger and difficulties.  Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum.  A complete withdrawal of America back into its own borders would leave a plethora of vacuums which will quickly be filled by some very dangerous people.  I said that the first way to look at this isolationist policy of Paul's was through the eyes of Americans and I just hope they can see the huge dangers hidden behind the superficial attractions.  But the second way to look at it is, of course, through my own eyes, those of an Englishman, and speaking personally, I would be in a state of fear and trembling were America to withdraw from the world, so to speak.  Yes, they have blundered from time to time, big nations do that just as we used to in the 19th century, but on the whole, and definitely when compared to the alternative, the United States of America is 'A Good Thing' and I want it out there on the ground and in the air, pursuing its own interests because, by and large, what's good for the States is, in general terms, good for us, too!

 

No need to sing 'Tootle-oo to Tuvalu'

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you  - Nils-Axel Mörner!  Alright, alright, I 'd never heard of him either until 'Dellers' tipped me off but now this cheerful Dane, so unlike his gloomy but more famous predecessor, has written an article for The Spectator (no link yet but I'm sure there will be one eventually so keep trying, or better still, rush out and buy a copy!)  So what is the good news brought to us by this fearfully brainy, Danish scientist?  Well, Canute was right after all!  I had better explain.

First of all, for those who place great value on such things (which includes every HAF there ever was), Mörner is, according to Wiki:

the former head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University.  He was president of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) Commission on Neotectonics (1981–1989).

Also, and more to the point today:

He's also been the Chairman of INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution.

However, the really important thing about Mörner is that he doesn't just sit around in the UEA with the likes Phil Jones playing around with computer models.  Instead he, Shlock-Horror, actually goes out and measures things - things like global sea levels.  Thus he writes:

At Tuvalu in the Pacific, I found no evidence of flooding - despite claims in Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth that it was one of those "low-lying Pacific nations" whose residents have had to "evacuate their homes because of rising seas".  In fact the tide gauge of the past 25 years clearly shows there has been no rise.

Gotta love this guy!  But proving that Al Gore is the lying liar's lying liar of first choice is relatively easy, but Mörner makes a much graver accusation:

The IPCC's Fourth Assessment claimed that "there is strong evidence" of sea-level rising over the last few decades.  It goes so far as to claim: "Satellite observations available since the early 1990s provide more accurate sea level data  with nearly global coverage.  This decade-long satellite altimetry data set shows that since 1993, sea level has been rising at the rate of 3mm yr-1, significantly higher than the average during the previous half century.  Coastal tide gauge measurements confirm this observation, and indicate that similar rates rates have occurred in some earlier decades".

Crikey!  I admitted the other day that I had no idea what a 'jib' was but perhaps I had better start learning - fast!  But no, Mörner saves the day:

Almost every word of this is untrue.  Satellite altimetry [no, me neither, but it's obviously the dog's bollocks!] is a wonderful and vital new technique that offers the reconstruction of sea level changes all over the ocean surface.  But it has been hijacked and distorted by the IPCC for political ends.

In 2003 the satellite altimetryrecord was tilted upwards to imply a sudden sea level rise rate of 2.3mm per year.  When I criticised this dishonest adjustment at a global warming conference in Moscow, a British member of the IPCC delegation admitted in public the reason for this new calibration: "We had to do so, otherwise there would be no trend". (My added emphasis)

Fiendishly clever, these HAFs, in one area they try like mad to hide the trend and in another they boost it up.  If any of them promised you it would be a sunny day today, would you take a brolly?

 

The all-American mincing machine grinds on - and on

I remarked before on my admiration for the American nomination process which generally precedes a presidential election.  It's not perfect, of course, nothing human ever is, but it is pretty damned effective - as Herman Cain has just found out.  He might - just might - have got away with those mysterious ladies who popped out of the woodwork to parade all sorts of airy-fairy allegations against him because as Ann Coulter explains in a spirited defence:

The first one was Sharon Bialek, who claimed that Cain grabbed her crotch in a car.  Then we found out Bialek was in constant financial trouble, had been involved in a paternity lawsuit, was known as a "gold digger," had a string of debts and had twice filed for personal bankruptcy. Also, she admitted she knew Obama's dirty tricks specialist, David Axelrod, from living in the same building with him. [...]

The second one, Karen Kraushaar, made unspecified allegations of a "hostile environment" when she was working for Cain, but refuses to say what those allegations were. [...] As if that weren't enough, then it turned out that Kraushaar had also filed a complaint at her next job just three years later, charging that a manager had circulated a sexually explicit joke email comparing computers to men and women. She demanded a raise and the right to work at home.

However, the third lady claims a 13-year affair with Cain although her antecedents are no better than the first two:

[Ms] White has the whole combo-platter of questionable accuser attributes: She's another financially troubled, twice-divorced, unemployed single mother, who has claimed sexual harassment in the past, declared bankruptcy once, was accused of stalking and had a libel judgment entered against her just this year. So far in 2011, she's had nine liens put on her property.

Alas, she had one more claim to make which has proved to a be a bunker-buster; she says that Cain helped her financially on an almost monthly basis during those 13 years, and as Roger L. Simon at PJMedia points out:

And, no, I don’t know whether the allegations of sexual harassment are true, nor do I even know if Cain actually had an affair with Ginger White, although, if he didn’t, that would put him among the roughly .003% of males who gave money to another woman for years without telling their wives, indeed not disclosing the “friendship” to them at all, and didn’t.

Oh, the vanity of these men!  Cain is obviously a highly intelligent businessman with a good brain and the right political and economic instincts but did he really think that in this day and age he would get away with these things?  Did he not have a single thought for the repercussions on his hitherto happy family life and his wife of over 40 years when these allegations surfaced, as they were absolutely certain to do?  Personally, with certain illegal activites excepted, I do not give a fig what a man does in his sex life even if he is standing for election.  I admire the good (or bad) old 'Duke of Boot' who told an inquisitive hack who was threatening to tell of the Duke's affairs to 'publish and be damned!'  But if a candidate's overall conduct leaves him looking like Dim-Daft Plonker of the Year, then I do care because it indicates a large streak of stupidity - and we have enough of that to go round twice in the world of politics!

So Cain's crashed and burned and now it looks as though the ABR candidate (Anyone But Romney) is going to be Newt Gingrich.  I do remember him of old when, and I cannot recall the exact details, he stuffed the Congressional Dems and ate them for Thanksgiving!  I know he provided me with several years of quiet, satisfied chuckling but then I seem to recall that he, too, had marital problems but happily it's "all blood under the bridge" now and I guess he has been so well-known for so long that there is nothing else for the Left-wing MSM to sink their teeth into.  He is, of course, an old-time machine pol' but he does seem to have a more radical outlook than Romney whose own outlook depends entirely upon to whom he is talking.  And I suppose some level of expertise in dealing with the bureaucracy and the Congress would be useful.

I have remarked before that one should never underestimate the ability of the GOP to pick the wrong candidate so we must keep our fingers and toes crossed, but in the meantime, thank heavens for the American system working at its best.

Now she says, "Maybe" - see, I told you!(*)

The 'Kaiserin' has just issued an imperial proclamation letting it be known that she is in favour of closer fiscal union.  Her French glove-puppet also spoke yesterday saying that proud Frenchmen everywhere must not be, er, quite so proud in future because otherwise she'll beat him up!  Meanwhile, Draghi, the boss of the Central Bank, stopped dragging his feet and let it be known that, yes, maybe, possibly, provided certain measures were taken, blah-blah-blah (or whatever that is in Italian) he might see his way to switching on the printing presses for Europe.

And so, slowly but surely Greater Germany binds Lesser Europe into its embrace - or grip, if you prefer that word.  And what is 'Dim Dave' worrying about?  Working time rights, I gather, or at least, he was up until yesterday when someone let slip that they were now off the agenda.  Does he have any long-term strategic view of what our relationship should be to this New Frankish Empire (NFE)?  After all, we fought two world wars to maintain our own British type of democracy and the NFE has all the democratic credentials of Uzbekistan!  A Federal Office to enforce NFE budget rules and regulations will quickly be followed by all sorts other Federal Offices to enforce everything down to how we tie our shoe-laces.  Certainly a Federal Police Service and Law Courts will not be long in arriving. 

So where does Dave stand on all of this?  Where is his "vision thing"?  Will he just 'carry on up the Rhine', as it were, giving in here, surrendering a bit there, and occasionally flying back from Berlin to wave a bit of paper at us all as he boasts of having gained a minor concession?  Will he?  Well, yes, of course he will!

(*) "Like a good girl she keeps saying 'no', but in the end she'll say 'yes'"

 

'Dellers' kicks sea water in the faces of the 'warmers'!

What a deliciously naughty cartoon 'The Speccie' has produced for tomorrow's edition!  Never mind the huge furore over "hide the decline", now we have another chapter in the story of  'show the incline', that is, the supposed increase in sea-levels which are, if you believe the 'warmers' about to engulf the Maldives and Bangladesh.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to 'Dellers' at The Coffee House, the world's greatest acknowledged expert on sea levels is a Dane called Nils-Axel Mörner and he has just returned from yet another expedition where, instead of theorising on the backs of computer models he actually measures things and that has confirmed:

his long-held view that reports of the world's imminent inundation have been greatly exaggerated for ends that have more to do with political activism than science.

Apparently, this cheerful Dane reckons:

'If sea levels really are rising and islands like Tuvalu and the Maldives are in imminent danger of drowning, where is the physical evidence to support it?' So far there is none. It is those who claim otherwise who are the true 'deniers'.

Anyway, you can read all about it in my favourite magazine, The Spectator, tomorrow - so go out and buy a copy and probably they will have one of their very generous deals on how to buy a year's subscription for next to nothing!

(Yes, this has been a badly disguised advert; and no, I haven't been paid - dammit!)

 

At last, some good news

I am conscious that sometimes this blog has all the jollity of an obit page in the newspaper.  It seems to consist of one long wail from me on all the myriad alarms and excursions that bedevil this poor old globe.  So, today I bring you good news.  No, no, not for you - for me!

Yesterday a large buff-coloured envelope thudded, like a falling body, onto my front door mat.  Instantly I experienced that lurch in the stomach which I remember so many times in the past.  Sure enough, turning it over and looking at the back I saw the dread initials of the HMIRC (Her Majesty's Inland Revenue & Customs).  There has been news recently that due to their total incompetence unavoidable errors people would be receiving letters demanding payment for unpaid tax - indeed, one of my commenters reported last week that he had received just such a demand.

With trembling fingers I opened the letter and, with practice gained from former times, my eyes instantly shot down to the bottom line where I saw, with considerable shock, the amount of £1,345.00.  It was only after a second, panicked look, that I realised they owed me!  Oh, joy unconfined, and just before Christmas, too.  Filled with the warmth of human love I told the 'Memsahib' rather grandly that she could have two crusts with her bowl of Xmas gruel this year.  I know, I know, I'm all heart.

Anyway, I want you all to know that that young Mr. Osborne is a very, very nice man and I will not hear a word said against him - at least, until the cheque has cleared!