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Monday, 27 February 2012


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This is excellent news. Ironically, "peak oil" fanatics often dismissed the concerns of the Global Warmers, on the grounds that we would have run out of oil and de-industrialised long before the temperatures get really torrid!

Please make sure you spread this news to the petrol companies, though, DD. 135.9 per litre is the cheapest around here. I think they ought to ration it anyway, favouring mature sensible essential car users such as myself.

I think that you, and a million Greenies, have got the wrong end of the stick. The "peak oil" hypothesis was about conventional oil. To extrapolate from the peaking of production rates of conventional oil to alleging that that must mean that we would imminently run out of oil products was, and is, silly. At the very least there would be coal and tar sands and so forth. though using them would push up the price of transport fuels and lube oils. Now it turns out that there's fracked gas too. Hurray. But again note that you have a lot of money to spend before that yields good transport fuels or lube oils.

Two other points: (i) "assuming oil remains at $40-$50 a barrel": temporarily, at least, a wild shot.
(ii) "... the USA might be self-sufficient in oil energy in the near future leaves me worrying about who will undertake to keep supplies flowing from the middle-east" : Saudi Arabia and Iran, I should think.

What will they think of next to scare the children?


'W', I shall sing it from the roof tops!

'DM', don't link me with 'Greenies'! I never supposed that conventional oil would "peak" and then disappear. My point to the 'Greenies' back then was that if it began (for whatever reason - war - government interference - even scarcity) the price would go up and technology and capitalism would combine to find either new sources or new methods or new synthetic products which, I am delighted to say, is precisely what has happened. Thus, I can say proudly that in 72 years I was right - for once! Incidentally, I thought oil was just over a $100 a barrel at the moment.

Hush, TDK, using that sort of language will not only scare teh children but also the Greenies!

"I never supposed that conventional oil would "peak" and then disappear." It isn't outrageous: the chap who started the hare made a very good prediction of future US production rates. The area with the biggest fields - Saudi/Gulf, hasn't had a big find in ages. If (I say if) all big, new finds of conventional oil are offshore, that pushes the price up.

"I thought oil was just over a $100 a barrel at the moment." That was my point.

Oz: I see that the Welsh Wizard dispatched the Rudd Rotter rather easily.

DM: It was a lay-down misere.
But the reasons behind the Machiavellian shenanigans remain a mystery.
It will come out .... not too many secrets any more.

The reports of peak oil's demise are exaggerated. The peak of global oil production happened in 2005. I wouldn't get too optimistic about shale oil fracking and tar sands if I were you.

Ian, welcome to D&N. I couldn't change the oil in my car which gives you some idea of my expertise but the paper written by the swots at Citigroup (link up above in the post) indicates that they believe peak oil is dead and buried deeper than the average oil well.

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