My title has taken a slight liberty with the words of Charles Krauthammer because, although he is forecasting that Israel will whack Iran during the course of this year, he adds the caveat that they will do so 'if nothing changes'. The Secretary of Defence has said the same thing and pinpoints April, May, June as very likely. 'The Kraut' echoes my own long-held view that the Israelis have six million reasons to be utterly ruthless when faced with an implaccable enemy. Unlike other nations (not a million miles from our very own 'septic Isle'), the Israelis are more than willing to accept that history can, and frequently does, repeat itself, albeit, in different guises. The lunatic fringe in Iran have spelled out their intention to annihilate Israel and all its occupants. There is absolutely no way that the Israeli government will allow them to pass beyond the point of no return in their programme to build a nuclear weapon and delivery system.
To analyse the repurcussions of an Israeli strike (or more likely, strikes) is way above my ex-corporal pay-grade but some things seem fairly obvious. First, the Iranians will attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz which will send the price of oil into space! Happily, The USA has a carrier to hand (we do not - well done, Dave!) so I doubt that their efforts will succeed. The Obama administration will have to step delicately and shrewdly to limit their action strictly to protection of the seaways and avoid being embroiled in an out-and-out war with Iran - which, of course, the Iranian leadership will try to engineer. My belief in the ability of an American government to act delicately has been under severe strain recently, as regular readers will know, so all I can do is hope for the best. Secondly, we should not be too alarmed at Gulf Arab re-action. They will huff 'n' puff for publicity purposes but most of them, especially the oil rich ones, will be quietly pleased. More troublesome will be the re-action of Egypt, which given its control of the Suez canal and the somewhat shakey nature of the military junta, could be crucial. No doubt the Israelis will be taking that into account as they plot their moves.
The economic side-draft from such a conflagration will add stress to the already trembling euro economies and if it brings their unresolved matters to a head then it's not all bad news! Here in Britain we must be deeply grateful that, for a change, there is absolutely no way for us to be involved. Hague and his FO 'mandarins-not' will no doubt get themselves very excited but most of us have long come to the conclusion that our influence anywhere is minimal when it is not downright trivial. However, if the Israelis can deliver a coup de grâce and destroy, or at least set back for several years, the Iranian nuclear programme, we can all breath a little easier and if it sets back our already puny economy still further then it is a price worth paying, in my opinion. So let's hear it for 'plucky little Israel'!
Something significant will happen this year, but I'm not sure whether it will be Israel acting unilaterally. If I were the Israeli leadership, I would let everyone believe we were gearing up for action. This (along with a few bombings and assassinations in Iran)might be enough to rattle the Iranians into attempting to close the straits when a big US warship is inconveniently close. Alternatively, the US might prefer concerted action rather than risk the fallout from a "go it alone" Israeli attempt. The latter would trigger Arab retaliations. The former could be contained, and, as you say, the Arabs are no friends of their Farsi-speaking coreligionists. A nice war would eliminate a military rival, and raise the price of oil most satisfactorily....
So my prediction is that the Israelis will continue to rattle the sabre until someone's nerve breaks. They are extremely clever people, unlike all the other players involved.
There are, of course, those who think the Brits have already done a deal to provide assistance of some sort. Craig Murray's blog is full of conspiracy-wankers making much of the Fox/Werritty episode. Well worth a look at his blog - one of the most loathsome on the web.
Posted by: Whyaxye | Monday, 13 February 2012 at 20:21
As you suggest, 'W', it is all idle speculation but I do feel that it cannot be long delayed. As for Craig Murray, a total tit of the first order.
Posted by: David Duff | Monday, 13 February 2012 at 22:02
Well David, I know in the past I've been consistently saying, "Nope, ain't gonna happen." But I suppose if I'm gonna go expressing ,"Well, I think there maybe something of the likely here" it might as well be on D&N.
But it ain't gonna be pretty.
Posted by: JK | Tuesday, 14 February 2012 at 00:10
Well, at least somebody has a ship of some description.
We have a small rowboat and a pair of oars but I am informed that the bung has been mislaid or stolen, so somebody has to go along and bail like hell.
Posted by: Andra | Tuesday, 14 February 2012 at 04:37
JK, seen from an Israeli viewpoint, and barring an Iranian revolution, it looks like a 'TINA' - on eof Mrs Thatcher's favourite sayings 'There Is No Alternative'.
Andra, I think that ship was ours once upon a time!
Posted by: David Duff | Tuesday, 14 February 2012 at 09:36
Yes, I believe it was an important part of your navy.
We managed to snap it up for the bargain price of only
$ 47,000,000. plus tax.
Posted by: Andra | Tuesday, 14 February 2012 at 23:04
Cheap at the price! Even so, perhaps you could see your way clear to lending it back again?
Posted by: David Duff | Wednesday, 15 February 2012 at 09:10