Hu Jintao out Xi Jinping in!

If you say my title out loud and very fast in your local Chinese restaurant you might well get three sweet and sour pork, two 'flied lice' and a 'spling loll'!  (OK, that's enough cheap Chinese pronunciation jokes!)  My title actually refers to a forthcoming political event which in geo-political importance dwarfs the efforts of the Hungarian dwarf in France and even the 'Kaiserin's coming efforts in Germany.  Xi Jinping, pronunced, roughly, in English as SHEE jin-PENG according to Wiki.  He is the man who has risen, seemingly effortlessy, through the Chinese Communist Party ranks and is now due to take over the top job next year when Hu Jintao retires.  In today's terms that makes him the second most important man in the world and in time, with the way things are going, he might become the most important!

Before I go further I should declare my prejudices: I like and admire the Chinese.  Intellectually, of course, that is a daft thing to say because how can you 'like' one ethnic bunch of people and perhaps 'dislike' another when you know full well that both groups will have roughly the same proportion of saints and sinners and inbetweeners as every one else?  Well, I will leave that to the psycho-babblers to sort out and simply repeat my admiration for the Chinese.  I am also pleased that their country has finally flourished and is now bestowing, albeit patchily, the benefits on its tough, hardworking population.  Having said that, I should also add that I fear for the Chinese, too.  Their nation has always been subject to centrifugal political forces  likely to tear the country apart unless the centre holds strong.  Also, I should add, that I don't trust Chinese economic statistics further than I could pee into a gale.  I keep picking up hints and rumours that their banks are in a woeful state.

Anyway, 'Comrade' Xi Jinping is the coming man who will guide the massive Chinese ship of state over the coming years.  I place inverted commas around the word 'Comrade' because, of course, he and the rest of the Central Secretariat are about as Communist as Mrs. Thatcher!  Despite what they might claim for propaganda or historical reasons they are now running what might be called state-controlled capitalism, or, you might say it is a version of syndicalism.  At this point, regular readers will know that I am hugging myself as I relish the delicious irony that syndicalism was the favoured economic model of the fascists!  But there is yet more irony to come because the great problem with state-run capitalism is that it suffers with - wait for it - 'internal contradictions'.  Poor old Marx, hoist with his own pedantry - too, too delicious!  Dealing with that problem will require very astute handling because if he lifts the hands of the Party off the capitalistic enterprises the danger of the regions of China flexing their muscles is very real.  Similarly, any move to open democracy would be equally risky.

'Chairman' Xi Jinping has some immense problems to face in a very uncertain future so it is worth considering his background.  His father was one of the original revolutionaries who helped fight the war that put Mao into power.  He was rewarded in the usual way of mad dictators by first being given a top job and then being purged and imprisoned!  Xi Jinping was a young boy at the time and what he thought of it we do not know.  However, on the death of Mao, 'dear old Dad' was released and welcomed back into the new regime.  This allowed his son to flourish through various universities (he obtained a degree in chemical engineering) and party channels.  In a series of increasingly important appointments he gained a reputation as a tough, incorruptible and efficient operator who was dextrous enough to avoid any embarrassments or scandals.  A few days ago he re-visited America where he had spent time as a young man and he took the trouble to call in and pay his respects to the American family who had housed him.  Given that sort of history I suppose you could say that 'he knows his enemy'!

George H. Wittman writes an interesting column in The American Spectator and sums up his view thus:

Certainly this future president of China has allowed nothing to stand in the way of his getting ahead. One only can expect the same dedication to success in Xi Jinping's period as primus inter pares among the Chinese leadership. It is not unreasonable to assume he will continue to provide justification for the growth of China's military, whether it's its space and missile program or its effort to build a combat-ready blue water navy.

In the end Xi Jinping can and will be judged only by what occurs during his presidency, which under his predecessor has included, among other things: intelligence operations to penetrate U.S. cyber systems (civilian and military); placing the South China Sea under PRC domination; support for Iran's unfettered nuclear development; vetoes in the UN Security Council on motions to intervene in Syria; refusal to accurately revalue China's currency, and so on. If such issues are approached differently during the presidency of Xi Jinping, he will come to hold a unique position in China's global relations. However, his biography notwithstanding, it would be a major surprise both to China and to the world.

Xi Jinping gives every appearance of being a highly intelligent political operator with a very clear view of his nation's interests and ambitions.  The problems are likely to arise in Washington which, in the nature of big, sprawling, messy democracies, tends to throw up the very lowest common denominators as leaders.  America has a history with China, as I pointed out in my recent posts on the subject of the Korean war, and most of it reflects very badly on the United States.  We can only hope that cool, steady intelligence will prevail as they try to come to terms with this new Chinese leader.

Interesting times, as some Chinese chap once said!

 

Comments

[Andra]

When in doubt ....... Ying Tong Iddle I Po.

[David Duff]

'Strewth, Andra, your mandarin is perfect!

[Andra]

Damn, I was trying for Cantonese!