It really can't go on for much longer! If the politicians are unable to make up their minds then the markets will have to help them along with a bit of ferocious whipping. But in the end it will be the people who will either speak or take action. Andrew Alexander (always worth reading) in The Mail reminds us that Europe has been through similar travails in the 1920s/30s and we all know where that eventually led:
The countries [of mainland Europe] had all fallen a long way from the supposed, bright democratic future which the Versailles conference had laid out after World War I.
By the late Thirties, this whole panorama of democracy had been swept away by the economic depression of that decade. The dictators were a response to the belief that a serious crisis demanded strong men and stern measures.
What many people would describe, not always accurately, as 'extremist' parties are already advancing and, judging by a film report from Spain on today's Sky News bulletins, it is hardly surprising. They interviewed two middle-aged family men. One had been a worker in a small factory for many years but he and his fellows have not been paid for five months. Eventually they went on strike as a protest, at which point the factory closed and the workers were sacked. The other man was a self-employed small businessman who could get no assistance from his bank which had allowed his company to go broke and he has now lost possession of his home. Can you imagine the anger and resentment of these two men plus that of the millions just like them all over Europe. Andrew Alexander again:
To think that Europe could head off again in that direction [of dictatorships like Germany, Italy, Spain and others] may seem absurd. Surely the democratic system is entrenched? They said that last time.
Extremist parties are on the rise in Continental Europe, as recent elections have shown. In Greece, the far-Left party Syriza is reckoned to have an evens chance of winning at the forthcoming polls. At the last and inconclusive election the far-Right Golden Dawn, openly fascist, won 21 seats.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Front had its best ever result. Immigration is an issue throughout Europe. Note, too, that in both Greece and Italy the premiers have been appointed precisely because they are not elected politicians but ‘technocrats’, a fancy name for bureaucrats.
It is not always necessary for extremist parties to win outright. If they hold the balance of power that is often all they need, as Hitler's Nazis showed in the early '30s.
The markets are already showing their teeth by actually paying Germany via their bonds to hold the money they have already withdrawn from other European nations. The next thing to happen will be when the people act, either by voting in extremists or simply abstaining and allowing extremists in by default. Then there are two possibilities of direct action by the people. First, creating a run on the banks as they rush to pull out their savings; and second, by revolution. Not a pretty prospect.
However, one question remains. Who, in this country, should we hang first for advocating the advantages of so-called European unity? Actually there is another. Can we dig up Ted Heath and drive a German stake through his remains using a French hammer?
So, will there be riots? possibly but will they turn into revolution - I doubt it. What is missing is support from the middle
classes. Past revolutions have relied on the middle to provide the driving force and organisation. Despite the Bullingdon-effect there is no major disparity between the successful middle class and the ruling class - so no revolution.
As for Europe, the British are 'geographically challenged' , anything can be made anywhere and the distance/value equation
defines where our markets lie. The current financial fuss (actually a side-show) turns upon the implications of replacing
currency devaluation with fiscal control whilst preserving the illusion of something called 'sovereignty'.
So we have a treble whammy, a need to hold down the masses (cheaply), a need to encourage the remaining wealth-creators and a need to get our hands on more of the global wealth-pie (the main event). But "we" means all of Europe, a 'bunch of Blackshirts' anywhere could go viral, the wealthy will maximise their own advantage whatever the implications and each European country will be scrabbling for whatever slices of pie they can get in a race-to-the-bottom. The only comfort is that there is no advantage in revolution - yet - so a riot here or there but not much more.
Posted by: rogerh | Thursday, 07 June 2012 at 09:40
Yes, Roger, I think outright and, dare I say, rather old-fashioned revolution is not likely. However, the extremist parties (I leave others to define that expression) can gain the power they desire by using the electoral system. Again, I would remind you that the nazis were elected!
My own view is that we should disassociate ourselves from Europe entirely except for any mutually agreed trade agreements of the type we strike with countries around the world. Then we should then try our hardest to become 'lean and mean', encourage companies to come here and our companies to get out and seek fresh markets. In other words, we should 'earn' the right to call ourselves 'Great' Britain by trade not by arms.
Posted by: David Duff | Thursday, 07 June 2012 at 10:08
"we should 'earn' the right to call ourselves 'Great' Britain by trade not by arms": oh balls, 'Great Britain' has nothing to do with arms - it's a geographical expression.
Posted by: dearieme | Thursday, 07 June 2012 at 15:24
The word 'Great' has connotations, DM, beyond its mere legal meaning.
Posted by: David Duff | Thursday, 07 June 2012 at 17:41