A Good News Day!

You all know, because I keep repeating myself, that I think another four years of Barack Obama will be a disaster with some very long-term and depressing implications which will only be slightly mitigated if Republican strength in the Congress is enough to put the brakes on.  Mind you, in that event the somewhat veiled faced of authoritarian, unconstitutional, Democrat extremism will then be exposed for all to see - and feel!  As sure as night follows day, rule by presidential diktat will ensue.  However, you will also have detected a certain lack of enthusiasm on my part for Mitt Romney who is not a man bred to inspire.  There are, it seems to me, two Mitt Romneys, the one who passed his own version of 'Obamacare' as a State governor, and the man who ran a very successful capital venture firm which bought up ailing companies and with great ruthlessness turned them around and sold them for a profit.  It will be fascinating to see which Romney enters the White House!

And, oh, yes, he will enter the White House - that is the 'Good News' I bring you.  Happily, on this occasion, it is not my forecast, the history of which is, um, less than dependable, but that of the University of Colorado - no, no, don't click away, these professorial chaps have been dead right for every election since 1980.  The important point about their forecasts is that, instead of merely sampling the electorate as a whole, they concentrate on State-by-State analyses in order to forecast the likely number of Electoral College votes for each candidate.  The key determinating factors, in their view (and mine, for what it's worth - and I heard that!), are unemployment and perceptions of personal wealth, or, to put it in plainer English "It's the economy, stoopid'!" 

Using their well-honed techniques which have correctly forecast the outcome of the last eight presidential elections:

President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties. [...]

Their results show that “the apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said.  [It's now over 8.0%] The results indicate, according to Bickers, “that the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”

But it is the individual State analyses which are important and particularly those known as 'the swing States' the number of whose Electoral College votes always being critical to the outcome:

In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.

In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama’s 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.

Of course, there are caveats, there always are, but these 'U of C swots' have, quite literally, an impeccable record for forecasting.  So, as you sit at home through this Bank Holiday weekend watching all that global warming pouring out of the sky, at least you can enjoy a little crumb of comfort for knowing that Obama and his wretched politbureau are on their way out and just in time for a Republican president to choose the next one or two Supreme Court Justices which should 'fix' things for the next 25 years.

Remember, you read it here first, er, unless you read it here

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Comments

[JK]

Oh boy how I like when these sorts of prognosticating post of your's come along David. (Well my hands do hurt from all the rubbing in glee and my head hurts at having to clear a space for storing a "I'll be posting this come the end of November.")

Of course on the link to follow - you hadn't those swots from Colorado to take a cue from.

http://duffandnonsense.typepad.com/duff_nonsense/2008/09/president-mccain.html

[Hank]

JK

Thanks for reminding me of the value of my prognostic ability!

David

The election will be close. I think Rommeny may gain the popular vote.

The electoral collage is tricky. A national poll does not have a large enough sample in any state to be of value for that states result. Poles taken in a state are of varying value.

Of vary doubtful value

From RCP for Illinois. Note the last pole was in March.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/il/illinois_republican_presidential_primary-1593.html

But then there is this from a few days ago.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/shock-poll-obama-could-lose-illinois/
The poll is just Cook County (Chicago) whose massive machine driven majority often sweeps the state. While Obama is leading as expected he is still far behind where he should be. Who knows - Illinois use to be swing state the Republican leadership became a wing of the Democratic party.

I will go out on limb and say the candidate with the most electoral votes will win, but by the constitution that is not certain.

http://eclecticmeanderings.blogspot.com/
Hank’s Eclectic Meanderings

[JK]

I go with Hank's analysis.

Now Hank you do know on this one at least - you are not to be expecting a brown-enveloped letter postmarked "Arkansas"?

[David Duff]

Thanks for reminding me, JK, and I quote:

"A shrewd, perceptive forecast? Or 'a tale told by an idiot'? Time will tell."

So now we know!

Yes, Hank, I read that story about Cook County. If Romney is giving him a hard time there, of all places, then he's definitely on a roll.

[JK]

I took a look at some of the government contracts Mr. Ryan's family construction company has performed over the last thirty years David - I can see it's possible the unionized construction workers of Cook County might be giving the Romney ticket a bump.

But that's not the reason I've returned to this post, rather this:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/rating-changes-two-new-toss-ups/

[JK]

Knowing how overwhelming my linking can be David, I'm splitting my comment in two - but just in case you wish to confirm for yourself how dependent the Ryan empire is on government contracts, not only in the county of Cook, Illinois:

http://ryancentral.com/history.html

http://research.archives.gov/search?expression=Ryan+Incorporated+Central&pg_src=group&data-source=all

[David Duff]

Thanks, JK, and I am glad to see that the Ryan firm is shrewd enough to pick up any and all govermnet contracts - if they didn't their rivals would!

[JK]

I actually think it's pretty good too David - but just for your 'Elf 'n Safety' don't click on the "Projects" tab on their homepage - don't want you going all gobsnarkered seeing solar and windmill farms on the list.

Don't for a second think Mr. Ryan's a closet tree hugger do ya?

[David Duff]

Absolutely not but as the saying goes, if you're prepared to pay for shit, I'll start straining!