My trusty observers at NightWatch tell me that 'Fat Boy' Kim has placed all of his missile, rocket and artillery formations on the highest level of readiness which is a 'war imminent basis' and means they are capable of firing within minutes of receiving the command:
In the four Army Corps that are based north of the Demilitarized Zone, the North has deployed in caves and hardened positions about 10,000 howitzers, guns and multiple round rocket launchers with wartime loads of ammunition. The gun density per kilometer is higher than at the major battles on the Soviet Front in World War II and is, in fact, derived from Soviet artillery doctrine.
No-one seems to believe that he really wants war but explanations for his apparently lunatic behaviour vary. The shrewdest, I think, was a man on Sky News who suggested that his main aim was to attract the attention of President Aloof - ooops, sorry - President Obama and force him into one-to-one negotiations over a new settlement for the Korean peninsular. This, of course, will give Kim's reputation a tremendous boost and as any settlement will probably include large dollops of American aid for which North Korea is desperate, that will add even more 'lustre to his cluster'!
For once, Obama will be right to remain aloof. This is primarily a South Korean, Japanese and Chinese problem. Kim is like a batty old man living in a community who spends all day and night shouting obscenities at the neighbours and threatening to kill them all. It is up to the neighbours to decide amongst themselves what to do about him - they, after all, have most to lose.
In the meantime, of course, in such a state of high tension the possibility of some soldier somewhere along the border making a mistake and starting a war is a very great possibility.
I think the problem with Kim is much worse than the financial problem -- the coming collapse -- you wrote about yesterday. Kim is in a corner. He is stupid enough to follow through with a missle attack. And I'm sure the Iranians are whispering in his ears.
My $.02, anyway.
Posted by: Dom | Wednesday, 27 March 2013 at 13:30
Dread thought, Dom, but I fear you may be right.
Posted by: David Duff | Wednesday, 27 March 2013 at 16:51
The whole Kim family has specialised in this particular form of blackmail for decades. They threaten the US and then the US gives them $ 40 million or so and Mr Kim then tells his starving people how decadent the west is and how wonderful things are in North Korea and how they can all have an extra stone to boil with their grass for dinner. Nothing much has changed except the weaponry as far as I can see.
Anyway, I'm off to Melbourne for Easter where I expect to freeze my tits off while I'm gnawing on my easter egg.
What fun!
Posted by: Andra | Wednesday, 27 March 2013 at 19:47
Thank you, Andra, an excellent summary of a complex geopolitical and strategic conundrum.
And ask 'the Chinaman' to protect your upper works, we can't have those damaged, I'm told they're a United Nations Heritage site!
Posted by: David Duff | Wednesday, 27 March 2013 at 22:20
Andra's correct I agree.
I note the cross border Industrial Works at Kaesong is still up and running (the Norkies however did cut the phone lines off tho - the SKs working in the northern areas are having to use cellphones to verify to their government they're "safe").
And "we" flew a couple of B-2 stealth bombers over the penisula earlier today [Korea time] - expect the 'FatEun' to make some more turribull noises.
Posted by: JK | Thursday, 28 March 2013 at 20:17
2305 GMT - FatEun's ordered the Norkie "Rocket Units" to Stand-By Status.
Whatever that means.
Posted by: JK | Friday, 29 March 2013 at 00:24
It means 'SNAFU', JK, in North Korean-speak which automatically increases the 'AFU' element by a factor of ten!
Posted by: David Duff | Saturday, 30 March 2013 at 08:12