"In, out, in, out, shake it all about"

Thus sayeth the lyric for that happy-clappy 'toon', "Do the Hokey Cokey".  It also might apply to the seemingly never-ending wrangles over our in/out membership of the EU.  My commenters, Richard, Paul and BOE are giving me grief over my view that it is now necessary to don the bio-chem suits and vote for 'Dim Dave' (or perhaps, 'Devious Dave') at the next election.  I fear they are allowing their disdain, verging on dislike, for Dave to cloud their judgment.

So let me begin by agreeing with their general opinion that Cameron is useless, devious, weak and untrustworthy.  Also, he's not much of a Tory!  However, none of that alters the facts of the current situation.

First Fact: A large swathe of the electorate either wants out of the EU or a very much looser connection.  Whether that "large swathe" actually constitutes a majority no-one knows and that state of ignorance will continue until a referendum is held.

Second Fact: However, it is a fact that Tory MPs have realised with a start that a dangerous part of that "large swathe" are prepared to ditch Tories and vote UKIP unless they see some change of direction from the government.

Third Fact:  The electorate knows now for an absolute fact that neither Labour nor the Lib-Dems will give them a referendum.  (Perhaps the best outcome from the debate on the Private Member's bill yesterday was that it confirmed Lib-Dem intransigence and pinned Labour to the 'no referendum' ground, so hurrah to all those rebel Tories.) 

So, I ask my critics, if you are given a three-way bet in which the odds are respectively zero, zero and 50/50, which bet would you take?  You will have noticed that I have not included the possibility of UKIP gaining any parliamentary seats because I simply do not believe they can do it - oh, alright then, maybe Farage could do better than he did last time against that ghastly little midget, Bercow, but that's all.

One crucial element is missing.  As Sherlock Holmes pointed out in a different circumstance, the interesting thing about the dog in the night was the fact that it failed to bark!  As James Forsyth reminds us in The Coffee House, so far Cameron has given no hint as to what outcome he is seeking in his forthcoming negotiations with Europe:

If you ask what’s the problem with David Cameron’s European strategy, a
cacophony of voices strike up. But it seems to me that most of their complaints
are tactical when the fundamental problem is strategic: what does Cameron
actually want back from Brussels? [My emphasis]

Some of those involved in preparation for the renegotiation tell me that this
is the wrong question to ask, that what Cameron is seeking is a systemic change
in the way the European Union works. But I’m still unclear on what their
strategy for achieving this is.

Of course, it is not unreasonable to hold back on the exact details of your negotiating aim.  The Eurocrats will be all too eager to humiliate any British prime minister by sending him home with 'a piece of paper' to wave at the airport - there's precedent for that!  But Forsyth hints that detail is not something No.10 dwells upon.  The way they were bounced into agreeing (sort of) with their rebel MPs at the very last minute is not an indication of a man in command and control of events.  I'm not saying for absolute certainty that Cameron (or whoever leads the Tory party!) will stick by his promise but as it stands today that is the best offer on the table.  Actually, I think it would now be hideously difficult for any Tory leader to rat on that promise.

All of which leads me up to what will happen if we do get a referendum.  For sure, the EU leaders will be aware of the referendum sword pointing in the middle of Dave's back and so they will be minded to give him just enough in the way of baubles, bangles and beads to help him win a vote.  With the combined forces of Brussels, a Tory government, Labour and Lib-Dems, the TUC and Big Business, I think UKIP and the rump of the Tory party will find it hard going to achieve an 'Out' vote.  Our main hope must continue to lie in the chances, between now and 2017, of the EU self-destructing in some way.  In that case, all the cards would be thown up in the air to fall where they may.

In the meantime, my recommendation is to vote Tory at the next election.  Half a chance is better than no chance! 

 

Comments

[Andra]

Hokey Cokey? Hokey Pokey is more fun!

[backofanenvelope]

Your recommendation is based entirely on the supposition that there is a half-chance that a Tory government will better than a Lib-Lab, Lib-Tory or Lab government. Where is the evidence for this supposition? Experience of the last 3 years is that there is no real difference between any combination of the 3 main parties. They all need a swift kick in the goolies and the only way I can see of doing that is wrecking all 3 of them by voting UKIP. So, vote UKIP, and kick Cameron, Clegg, Millibund etc where it really hurts!

[David Duff]

Andra, I agree absolutely but alas at my ripe old age - I'm 74 TODAY! - Hokey-Cokey is about all I'm capable of!

BOE, you may well be right but for me the single most important item in the political firmament is for us to leave the EU. I don't want a 'new improved' EU, I just want out altogether. Then we can arrange bilateral trade deals but at least we will regain our sovereignty. In other words, I don't care of we go to hell in a handcart - so long as it is a British handcart! Only the Tories are offering us a half-chance so, alas, I'm not going to waste my vote on UKIP - except at the European election next year!

[Paul Minter]

Happy birthday, David, something I will say to my brother later today!

Hokey Pokey : whilst wombling around NZ a few years ago I discovered that is what Kiwis call honeycomb. I had bought a 'Hokey Pokey' flavoured ice cream, thinking 'what the hell is that' and then finding it tastede like a 'crunchie bar'. It would seem to be a cornish term - probably a few of them had gone to the land of the long white cloud to dig a hole or two in the nineteenth century.

As to the meat of your post, I can see your logic and have some sympathy with it. However (you knew there would be a 'BUT' didn't you) I still think that the political set up needs a good kicking, since they all espouse the same 'touchy feely', PC clap trap and are absolutely subservient to their masters in Brussels. I don't see the Tories moving away from that, certainly not under the current Etonion cabal and maybe not under any new leadership, apart from a bit of minor tinkering. So I stay with my plan - vote UKIP and vote UKIP often.

Finally, I am now coming to think that a Conservative win at the next general election is not out of the question, unlikely but not impossible. Labour's opinion poll ratings, if you can believe these things, are really not that good - I bet Kinnochio was doing better a couple of years before the 1992 GE and he lost, thank God. Also, the EU might start to fragment of its own accord as it becomes ever more unwieldy and the Germans get fed up paying for Stavros to retire at 50 on 90% final salary etc. Interesting times, as the Chinese like to say!

[david morris]

Very Happy B'day sah !

Sorry to be another to disagree with your advice on voting but can only re-state backoftheenvelope. The system is broke & it needs fixin'. Putting any of the "Big 3" back at what purports these days to be the levers of power (those not already given away to our EuroFederast chums) will only prolong the agony.

Meself, not convinced voting Kipper is the answer but look at the seachange in attitude evinced by frightened Tory marginal MP's in the past 6 weeks.

Bullets in the back of the head to them all.........

Nurse, the screens !!!!!!!

Kind regards

[Richard Morgan]

David,

You think that the Tories actually have a 50/50 chance under the current leadership? Dream on!

I think that Nigel Lawson actually got to the heart of the matter when he said, "that any negotiations with Brussels will produce nothing but inconsequential concessions."

If you want to go on voting for the Lib/Lab/Con/Brussels status quo, be my guest, but then don't be surprised if the current dog's breakfast continues.

Take a look at what UKIP have achieved already, and this is without a single elected MP. Also take note that UKIP are not only taking votes off the Tories but they are garnering votes from erstwhile supporters of the other two main parties as well.

The importance of UKIP is (currently) not measured in parliamentary seats but in the influence they are having over scared and wavering MPs from the other three parties. The more UKIP grows, the more this influence will grow.

I'm with David Morris and Backofanenvelope. Right now, we need to vote for UKIP at every opportunity, including general elections.

[JK]

Happies David.

Appears to me you're getting a pretty good birthday skewering without me adding my 2¢ so I'll just go back to my popcorn and just peek in from time to time.

[David Duff]

Gentlemen, you will all write out one hundred times:

I must read the headmaster's wise words more carefully in future.

My post was concerned totally with the likelihood or not of getting an EU referendum - nothing else. To me, that is the single most important matter as far as domestic politics is concerned. You really don't have to tell me what a bunch of tossers they are at Westminster, I already know. But if you want an EU referendum the Tories are your only chance. UKIP, for whom I voted at the local elections and will do so again at the European elections, have provided the very best way of squeezing Cameron's blx - and, oh boy, are his eyes watering!

So, I repeat, if the referendum is the most important thing for you, then hold your nose and vote Tory!

[backofanenvelope]

I'm afraid you lost me when you wrote about Cameron's cauliflowers......

JK. Don't be shy - if your president can stick his oar in, surely Mr Duff will allow you to.

I'll make a forecast. There won't be a referendum. If by some miracle there was a referendum, we would vote to stay in.

So, lets forget about it and concentrate on more important things. Take a look at UKIP's immigration proposals. Nothing in them that a real Conservative government wouldn't like.

As far as the EU is concerned, lets keep our heads dowen and DON'T agree to anything. Generally speaking - our policy should be simple "stick it to the French". It worked for hundreds of years!

[David Duff]

BOE, as I have said before, the chances of a referendum depends entirely on who wins the next election, therefore: Labour = nil, Lib Dems = nil and Tories = maybe, probably. Support for UKIP will strengthen Labour's chances over the Tories.

It's no good keeping our heads down in Europe and refusing to agree to anything because they now have severe penalties backed by international law to enforce them - which is precisely why I think getting out altogether is imperative. UKIP do not have a chance of forming the next government and none of the other parties are solidly for coming out, so our only chance is a referendum. Yes, we 'outers' might well lose, so be it, but at least the People will have spoken. Voting UKIP will achieve zilch!