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Monday, 04 November 2013

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Israel will strike. I don't see why they wouldn't. The Iranians have been clear that they think a world without Israel is their aim, and it is a religious aim. These are people who rape women before executing them, because the Koran tells them to. We've tried to translate and retranslate what they've said, but it always comes out the same.

I don't see what the US can do. Are we supposed to negotiate? Religious matters are not negotiated.

Very droll that Bolton fellow. Nothing to do with Saudi getting twitchy about seeing all that lovely Iranian oil being sold on the world market? My enemy's enemy etc. Very wise not to forecast.

Dom, I think Israel will strike when and if they are convinced the Iranians are on the last lap to completion which, given the various soft sells being offered by Tehran recently which Obama seems to be swallowing whole, I think they must be approaching. For everyone else it is power politics but for the Jews it is a matter of existence.

Roger, yes, Saudi-American relations have cooled of late just as Obama rushes to cuddle with Khomeini. Coincidence - nah!

As I have said before, everyone should relax about the Iranian bomb. What are they going to use it for? If they drop it on Israel, they'll get half a dozen back. The Saudi's will immediately get their own, just in case. Probably the Pakistanis will sell them half a dozen. For 50 years the US and Soviet Union were stalemated because the nuclear bomb meant that the rulers could no longer sleep peacefully in their beds while the peasants died. Please don't mention religion - amongst the many suicide bombers of Islam there are NO exploding priests!

You are absolutely right, BOE, to warn against over-excitement, however, the fervour of some Islamists cannot be ignored and even if, just before they are evaporated, they cry out that they didn't really mean it, well, what can one say except that they should have kept their mouths shut! Similarly, your sort of 'sang-froid' is much easier to adopt living here in the UK than if you were an Israeli living within rocket range!

Well, if I was an Israeli, I would be fairly optimistic. My government continues to extend and improve that lovely wall; our anti-ballistic missile defence continues to improve and our friends in the West continue to wreck the surrounding Arab nations. What's not to like? And in 3 years, with a bit of luck, the Americans will elect a president who doesn't think he is an emperor!

But, BOE, as seen from the Israeli point of view they have to be 100% sure and secure because when it comes to nukes the Iranians only have to get lucky once! And if they do, Israel and all of its people will cease to exist. Now, they can pin their hopes on anti-missile defence systems and, er, hope; or they can get the first killer punch in now without risk of retaliation. Of course, there are all sorts of down-sides - the Iranians have dispersed, hidden and protected their nuclear sites so an outright destruction is unlikely, the Americans would squeal (and Obama would probably faint away!), the UN would pass all sorts of motions(!), and so on, but at least the Israeli state would continue to exist.

I'm not saying they should strike, I simply don't know enough to decide, but I can understand why they might do it.

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