When, via the good offices of A&L Daily, I was directed to an essay at NAUTILUS by Amir D. Aczel, a terrific maths swot from America, on the subject of co-incidence I thought I might learn something new and startling. Alas, the last clause of his final sentence summed up the impasse: the occurrence of such startling coincidences in everyday life may well remain a mystery. You can say that again! Still, at least he's honest and even if his conclusion is disappointing he does offer a mathematical framework within which you can place your personal 'co-incidence incident' in order to gain some perspective. He uses the analogy of attempting to draw an ace of spades from a full deck of cards where the chances, each and every time, are 1 in 52. In real life, of course, the chances of a co-incidence occurring seem to be infinetesimal because the 'deck of cards', that is, one's life, are huge. Mr. Aczel is right, I think, to stress the importance of psychology when attempting to gauge the apparent impossibility of co-incidence. Part of us simply does not wish to know that perhaps our 'co-incidence' wasn't actually quite so co-incidental after all! I am reminded of the opening to Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead in which our two eponymous heroes, speaking alternately, are tossing a coin:
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
(Pause)
Bet? Heads I win?
Again...
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Heads.
Whoops!
It must be indicative of something besides the redistribution of wealth.
Heads.
A weaker man might be moved to re-examine his faith, for nothing else at least in the law of probability...
Heads.
Consider. One, probability is a factor which operates within natural forces. Two, probability is not operating as a factor. Three, we are now held within, um ... sub or supernatural forces. Discuss!
What?
Look at it this way. If six monkeys...
If six monkeys...
The law of averages, if I have got this right means ... that if six monkeys were thrown
up in the air long enough ... they would land on their tails about as often as they would
land on their...
Heads, getting a bit of a bore, isn't it?
A bore?
Well...
What about the suspense?
What suspense?
It must be the law of diminishing returns.
[And so on - ad absurdum!]
Oh, for heaven's sake, get into the sherry or something.
You'll feel better.
Posted by: Andra | Sunday, 22 December 2013 at 03:46
Yes, mum, sorry, mum!
Posted by: David Duff | Sunday, 22 December 2013 at 08:55