Us and them

My preceding post and the commentary that followed it has made me pause and attempt to think.  Hitherto it has been all too easy for people like me who are instinctively anti-EU to simply snarl that we want out, no halfway house, just out!  But of course, Europe, in whatever form it takes over the next few decades, will still be there and we must have some sort of relationship with it, or at least, with its constituent parts.  The question is, what sort of arrangement should that be?

Obviously, trade and legal links need to be made, as in the normal way of business between sovereign states.  That should not be too difficult given that Europe sells more to us than we do to them so they are extremely unlikely to wish to destabilise that arrangement.  It is in the area of political strategy that we need to think very carefully how we approach our relations with the Europeans.  Obviously, I am no expert and so I tend to the default position laid out over the past 500 years or so, that is, always try and use such weight as we possess to balance the power scales in Europe.  At different times these scales have weighed heavily in favour of Spain, then France, then Germany and then Russia.  Each time Britain has leaned in favour of the lesser powers, and that, I think, is what we should do with contemporary Europe which is increasingly falling under German hegemony.

If adopted, this policy must be pursued with great subtlety, if not downright deception, because we should not work on the basis that Germany is the dangerous military enemy of old.  It is not!  It is an extremely successful, democratic country with whom we should try and maintain cordial relations.  Even so, if (as 'SoD' believes according to his commentary on the post below) France wishes to loosen its ties to an EU under increasing German control then we must aid and encourage her.  The same thing goes for the Nordics and also, perhaps, to the eastern Europeans who might, in time, become nervous at German power.  Certainly every effort should be made to woo the Irish.

I do not believe that we can execute a policy like this from inside the EU.  The greatest allies the Germans will have in preserving the Union is the entrenched bureaucracy in Brussels who will do everything in their considerable power to thwart our efforts.  If we are to act independently, then we must first become independent.  This is a prospect which our current prime minster simply will not stomach - unless he is forced to!  Once again, I would suggest that the only thing likely to drive him to it is a massive victory for UKIP in next year's European elections, and by massive, I mean not a single Tory MEP sent to Brussels!  That, and only that, will put such fear and trembling into Tory seats that enough of their MPs will revolt unless real action is taken before their election in 2015.  By "real action", I mean mainly two things.  First Cameron has to defy the Brussels hierarchy on one or two (or more) significantly important matters such that it will force a showdown - and with the strong possibility that Britian will have an in/out referendum in 2017 it will be interesting to see who blinks first!  Secondly, he might have to cut an electoral deal with UKIP.  That, of course, will mean the Tory party accepting several UKIP policies vis-a-vis Europe which means that all chances of another Tory/LibDem coaliton will cease to exist - and a good thing, too, given that the chances are the LibDems will be decimated at the next election.

Cameron has already had very recent poll indications of how the Tories are haemorrhaging support to UKIP in key Tory marginals which is leaving the door wide open for Labour to step through at the next election.  I have said it before, and I will now be even more boring by repeating it again, it is absolutely critical that as many people as possible vote UKIP at the next Euro election, and then vote Tory at the following national election - even if you have to hold your nose.  If you find the thought of voting Tory deeply abhorrent, then take a photo of Ed Balls with you into the voting booth, like 'a hanging in the morning it will concentrate the mind wonderfully!'

 

Related articles

Ukip emerging as challenger to Labour, says Nigel Farage

Will France attack Germany?

GRAPHS: Labour 20 Points Clear in Key Marginals

Stop Labour: the vote swapping plan to win seats for Ukip and Tories

Comments

[Furor Teutonicus]

There is no "in"/"out" argument. The only answer is to destroy it at its roots!

[dearieme]

"Each time Britain has leaned in favour of the lesser powers": no I don't think so. Note our government's indifference to the War of 1870, for example. Policy has been to ensure that lesser powers control the channel ports, rather than stronger. Since you usually can't do much about the French ports, that means caring particularly about the Low Countries. Presumably that's one reason why the cabinet frowned so much on the invasion of Belgium in 1914, and at the German army trying to execute a sweep along the French channel coast.

[Antisthenes]

UKIP is a useful tool in which to gee up the Tories with and Farage is good at plain speaking. It is a pity that UKIP could not run a piss up in brewery. As for Germany wanting hegemony in Europe by flexing their economic muscle if that is so then the chances are they will suffer another defeat. They will find that hegemony will come with a price they cannot afford the periphery euro states are already ravenous for German money soon to be joined by France. A further encroachment will see those ravenous states eat Germany out of house and home. Once the Germans realize the cost of the intended further integration they will surely decide a strategic retreat will be more in their interests. I am betting on the eventual demise of the euro and the brakes being applied to further integration next year the centenary of the start of the WWI. Still I may be wrong and it will just be the start of WWIII fought with money as the ammunition this time.

[David Duff]

FT, I worry about you sometimes! Relax and watch it destroy itself.

DM, yes there was a period in the post-Napoleonic 19th century when we were able to sit comfortably behind the impenetrable shield of the Royal Navy at let 'Johny Foreigner' get on with it - but that did not last more than a blink once the Kaiser began to build his navy!

Antis, I agree with you concerning the apparently poor quality of the average UKIP politician (not that the main parties are much better) but that is why I am keen to send them off to Brussels but *not* to Westminster. Germany will fight hard to maintain the EU in general but the euro-currency in particular. That gives them the globally cheap currency they want in order to sell even more BMSs, etc. If they have to return to the DM, they are in big trouble!

[backofanenvelope]

The purpose of UKIP is not to form a government. It is to act as a large club that the electorate can use to bash the LibLabCons round their silly heads till they sort themselves, and us, out.

[David Duff]

I shall look to you, BOE, to take the first swing at the Euro-election next year!