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Friday, 25 April 2014

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Yep, slowly the good ol' US of A is turning up the heat.

That's one Red (Scarlet) Letter day that Vlad the ex-Impaler won't be looking forward to : -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10786281/Russia-braces-for-crippling-US-sanctions-as-Ukraine-turns-deadly.html

SoD

And what of his mate - China?
You really believe american credit ratings ?

I expect that the thing that worries Vlad most is the high calibre of the people leading the anti-Russian moves. Von Rumpy, Ashton, Barroso, Hague, Clegg, Obama, Biden. How can he win against people like that?

Thanks, SoD, and A E-P's article spells out exactly why Vlad will have a price to pay for his 'lunch'.

With respect, John, China is no mate of Russia! In an irony that is just too, too, delicious, there are swathes of 'Russian' territory in the east where the majority of the population is Chinese. In due course the, er, 'Putin principle' will be applied in reverse.

Point taken, BOE, and some of those Euro-fanatics are responsible for the mess in the first place by their foolish efforts to entice the Ukrainians away.

"The Putin principle will be applied in reverse." Somehow David, I doubt it. Russia's armed forces - not to mention her nuclear arsenal - form a powerful deterrent. The Ukraine's (to put it mildly) don't!

You miss my point, Richard, it's the Chinese who will apply the Putin Principle which states that if there is a number (fill in the blank!) of your ethnics in a neighbouring country you can go in and, er, re-unite them! There are huge numbers of Chinese in Russia's eastlands.

...And I think you miss mine David. Russian military strength, both conventional and nuclear is currently enough to deter even China. Putin's reputation as someone who won't take any s**t won't do the Russian cause any harm either!

The "Scarlet Letter" day, like all nuclear options, albeit in this case financial, comes with fall out that might drift back to frazzle the European banks: -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10771069/US-financial-showdown-with-Russia-is-more-dangerous-than-it-looks-for-both-sides.html

Oh dear, what a pity, never mind - the Jerries have got another few trillion in bailout reserves to dip into. Serves Merkel right for cuddling up to Putin and not shelling out for some decent armed forces.

So the net effect of "Scarlett Letter" day will be the economic obliteration of Putin's Russia, and the proper bailout of the Euro banks by the Jerries at last. Result! Go on America - just do it!

And if Putin thinks his armed forces are up to it, he's a fool. They performed abysmally in Georgia, and in the earlier Chechnya campaigns. In Georgia, the Russian air force couldn't even gain air superiority - the Georgian air force flew at will throughout the campaign! - and the co-ordination with ground forces was so bad they shot down their own planes. Note how the Ukrainians have been quick to point out their radar - a very effective radar ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolchuga_passive_sensor

... - has spotted all the incursions made by Russian aircraft over the last few days: -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10789605/Ukraine-crisis-Russian-jets-fly-into-Ukranian-airspace.html

The best Putin could hope for in East Ukraine is an unbelievably bloody Pyrrhic victory, and at worst, if he tries West Ukraine, it is actually possible that he could lose.

SoD

I partly agree with you Lawrence. The Russian armed forces are a very conservative organisation, slow (in my opinion) to learn from past mistakes, their training leaves much to be desired and they would probably perform as badly in the Ukraine as they did in Georgia.

HOWEVER... In terms of quality, I really don't think that the Ukrainian forces are likely to be any better and there are simply not enough of them. They are woefully underfunded and under equipped. All other things being equal it comes down to a numbers game and there are simply not enough of them to withstand a determined Russian attack. As I believe Stalin said, "Superior quantity has a quality all of its own."

At present, I cannot even begin to predict what will happen. Armed gangs of Ukrainian nationalists and Russian federalists are already taking pot shots at each other and serious civil unrest - possibly even civil war - looks increasingly likely. It would be easy enough for Putin to send in the troops to keep the peace, but if he did he would find himself up to his neck in a protracted terrorist/guerrilla campaign, the Ukraine would become a running sore and (if our experience in Ireland is anything to go by) he would find it almost impossible to get his troops back out again.

Actually it is a big mistake to think the Crimea was aquired on purpose. The things just went so, nothing more. Almost everyone does understand its integration and development will cost us too much. But in this situation Russia had no option. The Crimea has always been considered (in the Crimea and in Russia) as russian land incidentally gifted to Ukraine. This explains why crimean inhabitants namely asked Russia to make it russian again(though I don't hope you will beleive me).
EVEN SO(!) nothing would have happened if self-claimed ukrainian authorities hadn't behaved so agressivly and stupidly towards pro-russian ukrainians. Let me remind you the first thing they did is cancelling the language act (which allowed russian to be the second official in some regions like Crimea). As one can see now Russian troops prevented possible blood. The events in the eastern ukraine confirm it. Finally in 2008 Putin warned: the Kosovo case will become a bad example. If one nation was allowed to separate the part of the country why the others shouldn't be?

First of all, Добро пожаловать to Duff & Nonsense, Alexey! I wish my Russian was as good as your English because then I would not have to rely on Google Translate! Anyway, it is refreshing to have a genuine Russian view of this difficult situation. As I have indicated several times recently, I think Russian claims to the Crimea are well-founded. If we British could send a fleet down to the South Atlantic to 'rescue' a few thousand Brits under threat from Argentina then I don't see why Putin couldn't do the same in Crimea.

However, the problem lies in his success! Will he now be encouraged to try the same thing in Eastern Ukraine where the ethnic mix is less straightforward? Or will the huge surge in Russian nationalism drive him to do it whether or not he thinks it wise? He would probably succeed but only at great cost. It is *not* necessary, I think, to add that the stupidity of the European Union in this whole affair is beyond belief, and the fact that we have an utterly useless president of the United States only adds to the complications. The best hope is that Putin satisfies himself with the Crimea only, and that the West, whilst making silly noises, quietly backs off. However, all of that depends on good sense and intelligence - so don't hold your breath waiting!

Thank you David! For me it is also interesting to find out what do simple western citizens think about this stuff, because I find western media's point of view quite biased.
Yes, you are right saying that ethnic mix is less straightforward in Eastern (and by the way Southern) Ukraine. But it is also not absolutely uniform all around Ukraine, excluding its West. In fact, I think if some poeple in Russia want that part of Ukraine to become Russian then they are in a great minority. But almost everyone is pity of these ukrainian people, who have become literally hijacked by self-claimers. One thing everyone must understand is that so-called current ukrainian authorities do not represent all the people. And the less part they represent the greater the problems are.
I used to study the Ukrainian history just for my interest. And the common thing for all the centuries for it has always been the absense of the unity. Needless to say that ukranians must solve the problems by themselves. But could anoune explain what does America do there? Is it normal to interfere into the policy of state located so close to our borders? Therefore Russian reaction is just the response.
The last thing one must take into account is the reason all this stuff sparked off. Ukraine had a trade prefernces with Russia. Which means low custom payments or their absence at all. It helped Ukrainian economy too much. But from the other hand it hurt ours one. You should remember Ukraine was about to sign an agreement with EU. This agreement would have made it possible eurpean goods penetrate into Russian market via Ukraine. Putin warned Ukrainian authorities that in this case to prevent our own market Russia will have to set regular custom charges for all the goods streaming from Ukrainian territory. Media represented it as "a pressure", which is absolutely crap (pardon my french). Anyway, having understood it would be disasterous for ukrainian economy its president refused to sign the agreement with EU. Following events are known.

That is as good a summary as anyone could wish for, Alexy. However, do not assume that my views are representative of ordinary people in Britain most of whom could not spell the word 'Ukraine'! However, I think it is fair to say that the vast majority of people here do not wish to be involved at all in troubles on the Russian/European border. The only country with genuine strategic interest is Germany and they do not seem to be interested so the EU bureaucrats and the idiots in the White House should make certain that matters do not escalate.

To paraphrase the famous saying, 'Russia is never as strong as it looks and never as weak as it looks!' I *suspect* that at the moment, and in the immediate future Russia is going to face some enormous economic difficulties which will lead to social difficulties. In my opinion the aim of US/EU and British policy should be to try and establish good relations with Russia in an effort to keep her away from China.

In the meantime, let us hope that no-one in Moscow or Washington or Brussels/Berlin overplays their hand!

Correct me if I'm wrong, Alexey, but the current bunch of politicians running what remains of Ukraine are elected representatives - minus one president who did a runner? And soon the people of what remains of Ukraine will have an election, whereby it is extremely likely that they will elect a strongly pro-EU, pro-NATO government now that the pro-Russian minority of Crimea is no longer part of Ukraine.

The reason that the ordinary Ukrainians will likely vote for a pro-EU, pro-NATO government is that they know they stand a better chance in life under EU / NATO authority than Russian authority. For starters, they know they won't see a rouble of the money on offer by Putin - the Ukrainian political elites will steal it all. Their only chance is to leave Ukraine and work in the core of the EU. What they can earn in London or Germany is THEIRS TO KEEP.

I've just returned from holiday in Czech Republic. Two young brothers, one early, one late, thirties, have just moved in to two 4 bedroom detached houses with double garage and gardens with small vineyard, without mortgages. They both worked in construction, one in the EU and one in the USA. Czech Republic is not being reconstructed from the destruction of four decades of Russian rule by a dollop of cash from Putin, or even from the EU for that matter, nor will it ever be. It is being reconstructed by individuals free to move within the Western sphere of influence and prosper therein, and sending personally owned and protected savings back home. They would never have had that chance growing turnips under the Russian sphere of influence.

I welcome them to our way of life, and enjoy the security that their support of the EU / NATO will bring. And I hope that one day Russia will be rid of Putin and what remains of its empire, and return to its European roots to prosper and reconstruct like Czech Republic.

Bollox, just lost a massive comment to the ether. It's not in the spam box, is it?

Alexey, in my best Arnie Schwarzenegger voice: "I'll be back".

SoD

Alexy, you might be interested in this from one of the very few members of our parliament with some brains:

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2014/04/27/ussr-versus-eusr-im-on-neither-side/

Alexey?

Greetings from Arkansas USA.

Know Sir, there are many in the US sharing David's views on "our political class" utter stupidity. Are you by any chance familiar with (what I think is) the Americanism, "Our pols speak out of both sides of their mouth?"

A case in point (one of many)

http://warontherocks.com/2014/04/houston-we-have-a-problem/

Delighted to hear from you, JK, I have just been watching 'Farx Noos' with pictures from Arkansas. That was some blow job! Elsewhere Andra was asking after you, too.

JK, hope you are safe in Ak. It's coming this way.

Don't worry, Whitewall, I've heard from him via e-mail and he just blew back - end of! In the meantime, you take care of yourself - you Americans never do anything by halves!

Whitewall Sir ... er, do not expect that sort of treatment over on Dip's site ... if yours is to be anything like mine was fasten your shoulder belts!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140427_rpts.html

No tornadic activity here specifically - but if you do get the 50 mph sustained straightline wind of 20 minutes - it's a ... well, not exactly a "hoot" but it was ... oh entertaining I reckon.

By the way Whitewall, the abbreviation for Arkansas is AR - AK would put me in Alaska. Not that I'm not there occasionally.

JK...so far we made it past the weather as, for now, the worst has slud to our south. Get through today and we are good. Sorry about the AR, AK. If you make it to Alaska, you are already inquired about:)

JK's always sliding off to Alaska - I have it on very good authority that he's having a fling with 'you-know-who'!

David Duff...oh deer!

Spot on, Whitewall, I can just picture ol' JK flat on his back with the lady standing with rifle in hand, one foot on his miserable old carcass and smiling for the cameras! God I love that woman!

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