Blog powered by Typepad

« Your Monday Funnies: 4.8.14 | Main | Truth will out - but not from Gaza »

Monday, 04 August 2014

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Never forget that it was the decision of the E.U. to expand into the Russian zone of influence that was the root cause of all the bloodshed. Russia had no alternative but to protect her own interests.

The EU already expanded into what Russia considers its zone of influence in the Baltics. The problem is that many of those who Russia wants to "influence" want nothing to do with them. Ukraine wanted to enter into a trade agreement with the EU, nothing more. The status of the base at Sevastopol had not come up for question in over 20 years of post-Soviet independence. And why the hell would Ukrainians not want closer trade ties with the EU? What consumer goods has Russia got to offer?

All very sensible, Tim, but when 'sensible' gets in the way of geo-strategic considerations then there's only going to be one winner! It's Russia's backyard and the fuckwits in Brussels should have controlled their mad ambitions - particularly with a thug like Putin opposed to them.

Tim, remember that originally that the British under Heath entered into a trade agreement with Europe... and it was never meant to be anything more!

The geo-politics seems to be going in our favour. If Ukraine mops up the rebels and Putin doesn't invade, he's finished. And we gain a devoted and tough friend and ally to add to Nato and hold our Eastern border, until the Russians beg us to join the EU and share their energy in the framework of the EU.

And all that for Nato and the West not firing a shot.

It'd be geo-political result of the millenium, trumping even the cold war on a cost benefit analysis.

SoD

"Never forget that it was the decision of the E.U. to expand into the Russian zone of influence that was the root cause of all the bloodshed. Russia had no alternative but to protect her own interests. Imagine if you will, a parallel situation where treaties were being drawn up to make Scotland part of a newly formed U.S.S.R. The E.U. has blood on its hands and with regard to the Ukraine, I have no hesitation in nominating it as the number one villain."

What is this "zone of influence" you keep mentioning? And how do you get away with conflating it into the same thing as nationhood: Scotland is to Britain what Ukraine is to Russia, according to you. NO IT ISN'T. Not in international law (obviously), nor in realpolitik.

In international law Scotland is part of the United Kingdom, and Ukraine is a sovereign state, independent from Russia.

In realpolitik, two interested parties offering trade deals to an independent sovereign state is a wholly different matter from one state unilaterally drawing up a treaty to incorporate a province of another state. For open warfare to derive from the former indicates a nutter is in charge operating outside not just of today's more civilized frameworks, but outside of even medieval protocol. For the latter to lead to an armed response from the state whose province is under threat is quite normal and acceptable in any era, including anyone attempting to wrench Scotland from the UK, or Crimea and East Ukraine from Ukraine.

The blood is on the hands of the nutter who doesn't know the rules of the game, not the hands of the players who play by the rules.

SoD

Dont forget that Russia has nuclear weapons. This tends to alter the shape of righteousness.

Lawrence, As Russia sees it, the zone of influence includes all the countries that were formerly part of the USSR. There has been considerable resentment in Russia over what they see as undue western influence in countries such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia and I am told repeatedly that NATO and the West have violated the agreements that were made when the USSR broke up.

Remember also that the histories of the Ukraine and Russia are joined at the hip and have been so for over a thousand years. Sometimes the Ukraine is even referred to as 'Little Russia.' While the Scottish analogy is a good one, on reflection a comparison with the uneasy relationship between England and Ireland would be even better. We had Oliver Cromwell, they had Joseph Stalin. Neither Ireland nor the Ukraine has forgotten or completely forgiven and I think it is fair to say that recent developments in the latter country are not helping at all.

Nonsense, SoD! In 1914 Belgium was a neutral country recognised as such by all the great powers. Untouched it was of no interest to us. But conquered by a *hostile power* it instantly fell into the category of 'a sphere of influence'. There is no legal definition for the term - it just exists even if it only exists in the mind of a protagonist. Any political realist would recognise such feelings and adjust accordingly. Alas, there are no realists in Brussels today, just mad fantasists!

For God's sake, the EU didn't invade Ukraine, as Germany did with Belgium, we offered them a flippin' trade deal!

And there's you saying we should be out of the EU and signing up trade deals left right and centre on our own; how are we going to do that without offending someone's "sphere of influence"?

Putin is a nutter. You're going to fight him sometime, sooner, or later, but you're going to fight him. Get over it, then plan it, and keep to the rules so you've got a clean case for the bleeding hearts and artists when the rockets start flying - except for the West haters and appeasers (you lot?) who will never be persuaded until it's too late.

SoD

Lawrence, with the federalist, centralist EU, a trade deal represents one foot on the slippery slope with the Devil tugging at the hind leg as (the no longer independent) Great Britain has found out the hard way.

Unfortunately Putin isn't a nutter at all. True, he is a nasty piece of work, but he is also a highly competent nasty piece of work, and I actually agree with you here. He represents a threat and should be watched carefully. Europe however, represents every bit as big a threat and needs careful watching as well.

Why is it that bleeding-heart liberals and labourites seem to prefer an unaccountable European left wing legislative body with no democratic mandate that CANNOT be voted out of office, over a democratically accountable right of centre body that CAN be voted out of office?

The general idea the West have had is to boot the Russkies out of the Black Sea and isolate them. The West do not care about their sponsored puppets in the Ukraine. The truth about the plane crash will out just like Lockerbie eventually will but no one will care. Most alive during those times will have a foot in the grave.

Not long to go now: -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11016645/Nato-warns-of-Russian-preparations-to-invade-Ukraine.html

Shame Putin couldn't have timed the invasion for August 4th, just to heighten the irony.

SoD

Here's where your "highly competent" Putin has landed Russia: -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11017413/Vladimir-Putins-pointless-conflict-with-Europe-leaves-it-a-vassal-of-China.html

We'll see how his ground forces get on with no pay, no food in their bellies, Mum and Dad unemployed and starving at home, and the hero's of Maidan sniping at them day and night. Plenty of ordnance and supplies waiting to slip over the border from Nato / EU to keep it going for as long as we like. Boot will defo be on the other foot, we'll just see how they get on.

SoD

An excellent analysis by A E-P. It confirms my belief that the EU should have made every effort to woo Putin not antagonise him. Our (by which I mean the 'western world' in the widest sense of that title) biggest enemy for the 21st century is China and all our policies should be bent towards thwarting them. Driving Russia into their arms for absolutely *no good reason* is madness.

China can have the arse end, and we'll have Old Muscovy. Beyond the Urals, monsters live there. The rest belongs to Europe.

Then there'll be two blocks of the great and good in the world - USA and EU - versus one block of bad - China.

And to be honest, I don't give a shit whether we join USA, EU, or go it alone sandwiched in between the two. With global dominance of the great and good like that we'd probably get some quaint "There, there, we know you're little Britons who think you've still got what it takes to go it alone" type trade only arrangement with them. You can even gloat at me when it appears to work. But you and I will know it'll only be working because we first defeated the last tyrant of Europe in the same old way we defeated the others: by uniting with Europe and USA, and thereby engineered the "two good versus one bad" dominance of power blocks in the world who might well patronize us with an independence of sorts.

Another good analysis of Putin's self-manoeuvred entrapment: -

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/putin-hits-tipping-point-as-ukraine-tightens-rebel-noose.html

What a bright spark that man is.

SoD

Well thanks for that link, SoD, that really cheered me up! What the doomsters are not pointing to is the economic counter-blast on the EU economy which is already exceedingly shaky. And our so-called 'recovery' will disappear like snow in Spring if Europe goes back into recession - even German factory orders reached a 3-year low in the last quarter. Mind you, if it shatters the euro then it's not all bad! Another thought - if a European recession hits because of whatever kicks off in Ukraine inside the next six months, will it be good for the Tories at the election? In other words, in dire economic circs, will voters 'cling to Dave the nurse for fear of something worse', that is the two Eds?

It's going to be a big test of this country's outlook on the world, and although I look on it with trepidation, the truth must out.

Have we still got the balls our forefathers had? Do we still understood the fundamental dynamics of Europe, as laid down in every epoch of history? Are we able to see the long term solution?

The gobby fraternity of Ukippers, West haters, Putin lovers, isolationists, and twisted little Englanders are having their say, day in day out, and will do right up to the election and referendum. I just hope the silent majority, sat at their desks next to Czech, Polish, Hungarian, et al, friends and colleagues, realize their security and liberty is better assured through fraternity and by being strong now, rather than later.

And yes, a Putin invasion between now and Xmas will focus the mind of everyone in time for the choices ahead.

I will die of shame if we do a runner.

SoD

Lawrence. Not one British soldier should die for this shower of Ukranian fascists.


I do not like explanations where the others (russians, palestinians) have 'no other alternative' but we (the west) can choose. Sociology for them, ethics for us. So, only one part can ever be guilty.

Lawrence,
Wit reference to your earlier posts, it may interest you to know that there is at least one writer out there who supports my argument that the EU is the principal villain with regard to the Ukrainian crisis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11023577/Fresh-evidence-of-how-the-West-lured-Ukraine-into-its-orbit.html

While I still contend that Putin 'played a blinder' over the Crimea, it seems that he has seriously misjudged the situation with regard to the situation in Eastern Ukraine. Far from supporting him, it seems that Ukrainians from all parts of the country have come together to stand against a common (external) enemy - Russia. Unfortunately for Putin, the Ukrainian armed forces seem to have got their shit together and are now winning decisively against the Russian federalist insurgency movement, so much so that without direct Russian support (ie invasion) the insurgents are likely to be defeated sooner rather than later.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11018407/Will-Vladimir-Putin-ever-back-down-over-Ukraine.html

As I see it, Putin is now faced with two choices.
1) He can back off, allow the Russian Federalists to be defeated and then start rebuilding bridges between Russia, the Ukraine and Europe or 2) He can invade. Both options are fraught with peril. With the first he stands to lose face with his own people which will threaten his hold on power. With the second, he faces crippling sanctions from Europe and the U.S. Russia would also become a pariah state and would be driven into the arms of China, which with the lamentable condition of her economy would effectively turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11017413/Vladimir-Putins-pointless-conflict-with-Europe-leaves-it-a-vassal-of-China.html

I cannot even begin to predict what he will do. Throughout history, strong dictators have only been told by their advisors what they want to hear, NOT WHAT THEY NEED TO HEAR. I very much fear that this will be the same with Putin. I pray that his judgment will not betray him again.

Good Points Richard. However there might be the third option. It depends on how long will the rebells be able to hold on and if they are capable of holding guerilla war. So if they are not ultimately defeated until, say, october we will definetely add to Ukraine the gas-headache. Now this issue is not just about ukraininan industry, but also about Ukrainian people. For you know Kiev has been living without hot water in the taps for already several months - they are saving gas they have stolen this spring. Plus all the Ukrainian foods (and, as I know, many other products) are banned now in Russia. This also shoud become a solar-plexus-hit for its economics. However, the result will only appeear in september. To enforce and to boost the result it should be taken such measures as ban for money transactions from Russia to Ukraine and ban for ukrainians to work in russia (of course, excluding refugees). Will it be possible to carry on war in such circumstances? No. Moreover I am not really sure it's possible to exist as a state. Ukraine has been striving to be independent from Russia so much... now its dream is going become real.

in addition
I don't really know if westerm media say about it but ukrainian army is now bombarding huge chemical plant. In case of destroyal the dead zone is going to be 300km. It means - far inwards Russian territory. Could anyone say what is it if it's not a provocation to Russia?


A special question to Lawrence
Lawrence, it looks that you are supporter of democracy and all democratic values, and, excuse my straightforwardness, a hater of Putin correct me if I am wrong. So what are your thoughts on Odessa massacre, which took place in Ukraine on may the 2-nd? If Putin is an evil what the current ukrainian powers are? Whom should the Europe be scared of?

Alexey, both sides have thugs in their ranks, from the bottom to the top. I don't doubt that battalions Donbas, Dnipro and Azov have the same kind of calibre of person as the separatists (including, per that article, many pro-Ukrainian ethnic Russians).

I also know that if the EU gets hold of Ukraine, the inexorable, grinding, machinery of Brussels would bring court case, after court case, against all the thugs relentlessly, until villainy would be confined to diplomacy, not warfare, in the ranks of governance in Ukraine. And diplomatic villainy is annoying - watching David Cameron take one up the Khyber Pass year after year from Juncker et al gets on my tits, I assure you, like England losing at every world cup final since 1966. But nobody dies in diplomatic villainy, (and rarely at football).

On the other hand, if Mr Putin gets hold of Ukraine, the list of thuggery will be as inexorable, grinding, and relentless as his existing track record. If I was an ethnic Russian or Ukrainian living in Ukraine, I know under whose regime I'd prefer to take my chances.

Anyway, it seems your boss has played his final card: -

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/11/uk-ukraine-crisis-idUKKBN0GB0DW20140811

So, speaking of football, are you any good? There's a muddy field somewhere between the Danube and the Rhine, and on Xmas day 2014, you might be about to find out, like the England team, just how crap I am at it (bring vodka, I love it).

SoD

"I also know that if the EU gets hold of Ukraine, the inexorable, grinding, machinery of Brussels would bring court case, after court case, against all the thugs relentlessly, until villainy would be confined to diplomacy, not warfare."

I would love you to be right on this Lawrence, but COME ON! Pigs will fly first. Brussels' ability to mess with the sovereignty of other nations and interfere where it has no democratic mandate is legendary. However its ability to take decisive action... How can I put it? That bunch of cnuts couldn't even agree on the design of an E.U. Christmas card let alone the more important stuff such as prosecuting war criminals and if they did take co-ordinated action you could bet your bottom dollar that only a token handful of villains from central casting would end up in clink. Most of the serious players would be completely unaffected.

Lawrence, like you, I am seriously crap at football. However if you could be enticed to Russia, a mini airborne reunion awaits... vodka, banya, my air rifle plus an endless supply of beer cans for targets.

Lawrence, Richard, to my mind official EU simply encourages Ukrainian bandits to kill. No any adequate reaction to such events in the center of Europe in 21 century!. No any adequate reaction from the most democratic countries in the world. Therefore the only possible court case is a trial against defeated, which will never make any justice.

Actually I am quite good at football. Unfortonutely I didn't get the rest part about Danube and Rhein.
Paradox! Two british like vodka whereas me and almost all my friends like whisky!

Alexey, a hip flask of Laphroaig slipped into the kitbag already.

Richard, airborne reunion in Russia, a very kind offer, thank you, I might well take you up on that! You're probably still handier with the beer cans than me, being spesh n all that - or is it "Spetz" these days!? :)

SoD

The comments to this entry are closed.