"War, war, war! All you gen'emen talk of is war!"

Thus spake the incomparable Scarlett O'Hara, played by the truly beautiful Vivien Leigh, as her very first words in the film of Gone With the Wind.  Well, today the talk is also of "War, war, war".  Mostly, of course, it is concerned with the current kerfuffles in the Middle East but I was intrigued by what I will call the 'non-war' (so far!) over the Ukraine.

I just wondered - and this is a theoretical rambling not a certitude - whether the new 'weapon of choice' for major powers engaged in a dispute is economics?  After all, atomic weaponry is simply not practical if it results in your own total destruction.  So-called 'limited' military action between the great powers carries the risks of ultimate escalation and suddenly it's - 'Wham Bam, thanks, Ma'am'!

But economic warfare is, by comparison, infinitely more gradual and certainly far removed from loony generals pressing buttons.  However, the end results can be catastrophic.  One of the unsung contributions to victory in 1918 was the British naval blockade which exerted a strangulating pressure on the German economy forcing them into unrestricted submarine warfare whose only result was to bring into the front line a million or so fresh-faced, well-fed Americans to face a German army on quarter rations!

The result of the recent bout of tit-for-tat economic sanctions between Russia and the West is worth watching carefully.  Like all warfare, the cost/benefit analysis is a fine one and in fact only experience will confirm who is better placed to survive through an economic war although my money is on capitalist countries with relatively free markets.  We can diversify - can Russia?

For a more expert opinion particularly in regard to Sino-American realations, try this:

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/what-china-america-are-wondering-major-war-obsolete-11102

 

Comments

[Whitewall]

It some how seems the fortunes of Mad Vlad and the Russian chess pieces took a down turn after the downing of the Malaysian airliner and the crass aftermath when bodies were scattered about the landscape.

[David Duff]

Alas, I suspect it was no more than a minor irritation to the goons in the Kremlin. 'Vlad the Chess-master' has to decide, and fairly soon, I think, whether he is going to advance his queen into eastern Ukraine to defend the Russian-speaking separatists coming under increasing pressure from Kiev. The Russian public seem to want it and assume that he will - and he will never be able to pose for those macho photos again if he doesn't! On the other hand, the Russian economy is beginning to feel the squeeze. Interesting times - I'm afraid to say!