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Sunday, 28 December 2014

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I have a large used wooden horse for sale. Secret door operates well. It hasn't been fed in years however.

"Still, it’s an ill-wind that fails to freeze Vlad’s nipples in one of his bare-chested poses"

Nice visual imagery! The timing of who goes first, the Euro (and with it, the EU), or Vlad, is one of those historically defining moments, like the winning or losing of a war - which it sort of is, really, a short sharp cold war. With both sides self-inflicting damage as well as on each other (the EU with the Euro, and Putin by running a kleptocracy).

If the EU collapses first, I seriously think Putin will use the chaos as a pretext to reclaim East Ukraine and the Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonia Russian enclaves. In the acrimony from the EU fall out it will be difficult to rally the local NATO members to act, so after a short sharp hot war in which the West loses East Ukraine and the Russian enclaves, a long cold war will follow after NATO rallies. Putin will lose that cold war, as the Soviets did before.

If Putin collapses first, shortly thereafter the Euro will probably follow, but the sequence will prevent a Russian incursion. The Putin's successor regime will be too busy rebuilding the shambles and consolidating power at home, as it was in the 1990's, to be bothered with foreign adventures. The possibility of a shallowly integrated, non-federal, Europe might present, from the Atlantic to the Urals.

SoD

Piss up in a brewery? Hah, only a Brit can come up with a phrase like that. I'll file that, along with ' a dogs breakfast' for future use.

You'll have to dedicate a blog to your 2015 predictions. From what you posted today I think I'll start stashing way peanut butter and ammunition.

Looking forward to my Monday Funnies.

Pops...Gold, Guns and Groceries.

Blimey, 'SoD', almost a hint of optimism in your final sentence - but don't hold your breath!

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