Oh, alright then, let me make my heading somewhat more accurate - 'in which my vague, uninformed gut-feelings concerning Russia are explained with wise and logical reasoning by Sir Anthony Brenton, our former ambassador to Russia'. He does so in today's Telegraph and it is worth reading. I should add quickly, that perusing his 'Wiki' entry indicates that in other areas Sir Anthony is a bit of a prat but on this subject of Western/Russian relations he is spot on.
Let's be honest, Russia is a corrupt kleptocracy run by sundry thugs, murderers and drunks but, and this is important, it was ever thus from Peter the Great onwards. It is, if you like, the Russian way! The Russian people have stoicism way beyond anything most other peoples possess. This is both a vice and a virtue. Yes, it allowed them to soldier on as, half-starved and led by idiots, they finally stemmed the on-rush of German tanks just short of Moscow, but it also means they lack the will to raise complaints and insist on a form of government that will truly put the people's needs first.
'Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks' is a phrase attributed to three of the greatest statesmen Europe ever produced - Talleyrand, Metternich and Churchill - so it is worth keeping in mind. I have already expressed my suspicions concerning the activites of the Euro/NATO fanatics whose only shared characteristics are their stupidity and arrogance. Anyone with half a brain would know how sensitive Russia is - and rightly so - to the territories that border with it, particularly those with a large number of ethnic Russians in the population. It was madness for the West to stick its nose into Ukrainian affairs. This demonstrated yet again the overweening ambition of the Euro-fanatics and it should be a lesson to us on the western edge of Europe, as it has been to the Russians on the eastern fringe, that the Berlin/Brussels axis is a potential enemy!
Today, Russia has juddered to an economic halt and is set to slide downhill along with the price of oil. They have been given a shove downhill by Western economic and financial sanctions. In the last 24 hours, two of the biggest strategic fools in the world, Obama and Cameron, have boasted of the effects of their sanctions and insisted that they will continue with more of the same. Guess how that plays with the Russian people - and what a boon it is to 'Vlad the Impaler' as he appeals for popular patriotic support.
As 'my new best friend', Sir Anthony Brenton suggests, now is not the time to pile on with more sanctions thus souring relations even more but to work on some subtle and gradual moves to offer Russia a co-operative way out of their difficulties. Yes, there must be a quid pro quo with these discussions but Sir Anthony thinks that 'Vlad', provided he can save some face, might well be tempted by offers of some relief. It would certainly play better with the Russian people who might, just might, begin to realise that they can be a partner with the western powers to everyone's benefit.
In the meantime, 'B'rack 'n' Dave', just shut the fuck up!
Nah, press the reset button on Russia again, and let the Russian people do a regime change. Until they get a democracy that puts rules, and particularly the rule of law, above the executive, they're of no use to man or beast.
It might take a while and a fare few resets. I mean the French, for example, which republic are they on now? Is it, 5, or 6, I can't remember - even this one looks like it might need reconstituting at any moment.
The Russkies are only on 2 since the Czars, so a way to go yet. Help 'em on their way,
SoD
Posted by: Lawrence Duff | Friday, 19 December 2014 at 13:40
I believe Lawrence may be on the right track. I don't think with a power mad autocrat like Vlad in the driver's seat, there is zero chance for an olive branch of help. The people have to be hurt badly before they will force a change in Moscow.
Our respective leaders crowing about the sanctions working is the same level as the sun rising because the rooster crows.
Posted by: Whitewall | Friday, 19 December 2014 at 14:35
Get 'real', 'SoD', and you, 'Whiters', as in 'real-politik'! It is not our business to help the Russians have this or that society. That sort of mind set has been the cause of huge American errors since Vietnam and we, being the poodles we are, have usually trotted along obediently after them straight into the quagmire. Let countries sort out their own affairs but in the meanwhile, given the *potential* strength that Russia possesses let's keep them on-side as much as we can and as far *away* from the Chinese as possible!
Posted by: David Duff | Friday, 19 December 2014 at 15:07
Well we pressed the reset button on the Russkies once before in 1989 and it turned out alright from a Realpolitik point of view for us - we got Czech Rep, Poland, Hungary, et al.
Why wouldn't it work again?
SoD
Posted by: Lawrence Duff | Friday, 19 December 2014 at 15:34
Not quite, I think. It was merely the implosion from internal pressures of the old Soviet empire which even Moscow realised was unsustainable.
Posted by: David Duff | Friday, 19 December 2014 at 17:00