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Friday, 19 December 2014

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Ahh, BRICs...bricks sink as in sink like a--. Cost me a couple hundred thousand $. When it comes to Russia and China, for me, they amount to a couple of "broke dick dogs"( if you don't mind). Russia is, well Russia and like a certain blog I check out elsewhere, China is "Potemkin Villages" all the way down. India has opportunity for some, but they are so busy playing both sides of the fence- any fence-even a mud fence, they can't take full advantage.

My area of North Carolina was ravaged by job loss to China in the furniture and textile industries over the last two decades. Slow but sure, some of it is coming home and the same with other industries. I'm glad to read some industry is returning to Britain too.

The people Rush Limbaugh labels the "Wizards of Smart" are not so smart, and we know it. When they work for a government, any government, their deficiencies can be masked or ignored, while we Hobbits are only too aware of the misery their stupidity has dealt us. Happily, in private business, the WoSes go, eventually, belly up. We all notice, of course, that whatever path the Gadarene herd takes, they are usually aided and abetted by government, protecting them, but never the rest of us,from the consequences of their folly. It is, after all, a matter of playing with Other People's money, and the late Lady Thatcher made clear where that will get us. I have seen such bone headed business decisions made over the years, with supreme confidence in the brilliance of the deciders. I have learned to run, don't walk to the exits when an idiot is given free rein. Conversely, I have seen guys smarter and more successful than I am get clobbered by stupidity I could smell from a mile away.

So, I am very glad, at least, that I did not have any money to sink in to Emerging Markets. As with every lottery ticket that I don't buy, I am a winner.

"trusted institutions, exceptional levels of innovation and entrepreneurship, and last but not least, rule of law and rock-solid protection of property rights"

Well I would say we're in danger of losing some of that - especially the last - to some extent, in the UK (especially in Scotland, even without "independence".

But even so, we will probably be better than the BRIC's, for a little while at least.

Happy Christmas everyone!

I agree, Whiters, that many assessments of China are Panglossian. And I would add that the Chinese leadership is not averse to it, either. That, of course, makes them doubly dangerous!

Ah, Michael, the fact that you do not buy lottery tickets makes you as big a 'winner' as me. I once heard a well known bookie 'over here' saying that the lottery was absolutely and definitely the worst bet in the world!

Well, Andrew, at least we can - sometimes - sue our own government without being shot for out troubles. And a Happy Christmas to you, too.

Global business now has a much bigger big pool of the top 50% to utilise - the useful ones. The rest of humanity are good for buying stuff or being supported by their governments - or not. So business is getting better - for some.

As for governance, which way will it go - we get more like China/Asia or they get more like us. A bit of both I guess, what suits global business will decide. Perhaps bribing a public official will become the norm, we can all have a go.

General Steel and Detroit will not be rising phoenix like from the ashes and nor will that kind of job. China, India, SE Asia and a few others etc now have expertise and education that is not going away. Not so sanguine about the need for solid institutions or law or honest government, nice to have, but if it gets in the way....

Anyway, reshoring is reckoned to up GDP by about 0.6%. OK but no salvation.

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