"My eyes are dim I cannot see ..."

So, no, I haven't a clue as to how the 21st century is going to work out except that there will be tears before bedtime - there always are!  However, you do not require a visit to Specsavers - which I have this afternoon - to see that China is going to be a monumental pain in the arse for at least the next two generations.  However, the good news is that it will all be about as far away from us as it can be - although if I was living in Australia or New Zealand my mind would be concentrated wonderfully!  (Incidentally, my Antipodean chums, don't think we aren't terribly grateful for your monumental sacrifices on our behalf in the last two world wars but do not rely on us for the third!  It's not that we wouldn't want to but simply that we no longer have the wherewithal!)

Grand Strategic strength, of course, is relative.  Your own strength needs must be weighed against your potential opponent's.  Thus, the USA is the only serious potential counter-weight to China but it needs to be understood that the Uncle Sam is entering old age and is showing those signs of decrepitude that go with it.  As their electorate is flooded with 'zillions' of South Americans, and as their economic strength withers under colossal debts, we need to recognise that America is simply not the same country we all remember so fondly.

However, the Chinese, for all their bluff and bluster, have some mighty schisms within their society which once unleashed could prove disastrous.  I have mentioned before that as far as I can tell from my skimpy knowledge of Chinese history they have always had a centrifugal force within their borders which, unless the centre holds, tends to end with breakaway provinces.  It can be summed up thus: Does modern, prosperous Shanghai really need Beijing?  Also, they now have a brand new, prosperous, property-owning,  middle-class and any threat to that 'feel good factor' will bring down the wrath of the people on the heads of the Party and its 'apparatchiks'.  Of course, as we have seen in Russia, this can be diverted by appeals to nationalism and patriotism - electorates are dumb the whole world over - but perhaps only for so long.  The Chinese government will pick the low-hanging fruit first, that is, those islands and coral reefs that rightly belong to their immediate neighbours in the South China Sea. 

However, poking a sleeping giant, as the Germans did to the USA in two wars, is not very wise.  Since WWII Japan has hidden its Samurai sword at the bottom of the cupboard but now, under Chinese pressure they have taken it out and are beginning to give it a polish!  No-one, the Chinese least of all, should ever forget the ferocious nature of Japanese militarism once it is awaked.  If there is anyone with any brains left in Washington - er, I am available on a consultancy basis! - they should be quietly stuffing Japan, the Philippines, India and every other country bordering the South China Sea with as much military aid as they can - and then stand by to fight a war to the very last Jap!

What about Russia, you ask?  'Fagettaboutit' is my reply!  In fact, if the Americans beef up their allies around the South China Sea it might be that China will switch direction and try and take back a few acres of Russian Siberia which they feel belong to them anyway.  That should give Vlad something to think about!

More important is what Britain should do about it?  Nothing!  Nil!  Nada! Zero!  Happily that is a very easy conclusion to come to because, in reality, there is sweet F.A. we can do anyway except perhaps cheer from the side-lines.  We are now, and are likely to remain for some time, powerless, particularly in the sense of being totally unable to project such teeny-weeny power as we do possess.  As I mentioned yesterday, I think that even 'Dim Dave' has recognised that reality which is why he is refusing to rule out yet more defence cuts.  In the meantime our mostly useless 'Brass' jump up and down squawking for more money, more money, more money without actually indicating what they want to do with it and let's face it, their efforts over the past twenty five years have produced perhaps the most embarrassing farrago in the history of British arms.

So don't give in 'Dave', instead sack at least 3/4 of the useless General Staff and just concentrate on turning this country into as close an approximation of Singapore that you can.  Now, do you think you can manage that on your own?  I am available should you need me!

 

Comments

[Whitewall]

I can't tell if the Japanese have been rendered as docile as the Germans. Anytime someone wants to cut off Germany, they resort to the "finger of condemnation" as Germans comply from rote. But Japan? I know little of them as they are so far away. There are those younger in Germany who are fed up with the quilt over their past and are starting to make some noise. Not sure about Japan. As I understand it, much of Japan's past has been omitted from their public education.

[David Duff]

Well, Whitewall, according to the media the Japanese government have started taking steps to repeal the constrictions under which the Japanese military have been hog-tied since 1945. Obviously this is in re-action to Chinese bellicosity but where it will end no-one can tell. But as I say above, if Washington is shrewd it will appear to stand back but quietly encourage the Japs and thus give the Chinese something to worry about close to home. Same goes for South Korea.

[Kevin B]

As Japan and China square up over those tiny islands in the Coral sea, we might get an answer to the vexed question of whether militarism in a nation is genetic or cultural.

It is possible to make the argument that the reason for the Romans turning into Italians, (or the Greeks turning into greeks, Brits turning into europeans, etc. etc.) was because of immigration from the outer regions of the empire into the core.

The Japanese, however have always resisted any invasion of outsiders into their central islands so that, when the Chinese come calling, any failure of resistance can only be cultural.

My money is on the cultural degeneration rather than genetic, so Sayonara Nippon.

[David Duff]

That is a fascinating line of discussion, Kevin, which, by coincidence, chimes with a social/military book I am reading on Regency Britain at the time of Waterloo. 'Stay tuned' for a blog post on the subject any minute!

[Peter Whale]

I think we should get the SAS to bid for the contract at the Vatican which is in the hands of the William Tell mob. As of this moment they have only had one Pope shot and wounded in modern times and this is from a nation that in defence terms has a Swiss army knife, and all of the rich people ask them to look after their money. We could do that.

[Backofanenvelope]

This would be a good idea - but only if the SAS was privatised!

[David Duff]

Also, Peter, aren't "the William Tell mob" a bit good with bows and arrows?

[john malpas]

You might think of Indonesia as a growth threat - especially to Australia.
Vast numbers of keen Muslims living on islands that straddle trade routes Should think of this.
Mass procreation looks to be the atomic bomb of the future.
Hence goodbye he west.

[David Duff]

Well, if "mass procreation" is the new weapon of the 21st century, then dammit, Malplas, stand to your duty like man! And 'SoD' had better watch out in case he gets a late brother or sister!

[jimmy glesga]

John malpas. Mass procreation is just natural. But that does not mean the British or any other country have to allow the procreated from other countries to enter.

[AussieD]

those tiny islands in the Coral sea are a long way from where China and Japan are squaring up to each other Kevin. It sits of the north east coast of Oz and is our bit of water.

[Kevin B]

Sorry Oz, my grade F GCE in joggraffy is showing.

[David Duff]

You should have been an Admiral, Kevin, we could have sent you down to the Coral Sea and you would have shelled Australia - oh dear, what a pity, never mind!

[Andra]

We have had enough "help" from Pommie officers previously in places like Singapore and Gallipoli but thanks for thinking of us.

[jimmy glesga]

Andra I believe a parade to commemorate the landings at Gallipoli will be held in London next month. The Lancashire Fusileers were first to land and half were wiped out. Then the slaughter began. The poor Anzacs took one hell of a toll. Bad planning and the Turks were waiting for them.

[backofanenvelope]

One of my grandfathers was in the Lancashire Fusileers, but not in Gallipoli. By that time he had been wounded in France; repaired and transferred to the Royal Engineers. He also fought in the Boer War. This has got nothing to do with anything.