We, and I include myself on an occasional basis, often fall into the error of thinking that all those jumped-up dictators are sharper, shrewder and ten steps ahead of the likes of 'Dim Dave' or even 'Ol' Big Ears'. For example, 'Vlad the Impaler', with keen geo-strategic insight carried out his own 'pivot to the east' by cuddling up to the Chinese and signing a new and huge pipe-line deal that will whoosh oil and gas across to his new best friends. This would be accomplished by his prize energy company, Gazprom. I am deeply indebted to the Streetwise Professor for deflating all that hot air in one deadly blog post entitled with equally deadly accuracy 'Putin's pivot to obscurity'.
On a Monday morning in which the Chinese stock exchange fell another 8% - 8%! - despite the government using emergency laws to discourage selling, it comes as no surprise to learn that the Chinese have about as much use for expensive Russian energy as we in Britain need more rain! Plus, and you can blame those damned Aussies, apparently they can supply Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) for a fraction of Russia's price - good on yer, Aussie mate!
The good Professor points to three very basic problems facing 'Vlad' and his gangsters
1: The pipeline itself is eye-wateringly expensive mostly because the crooks who run Gazprom insist on building it themselves because, well, how else are they going to skim off the top?
2: The pipeline goes to western China which is precisely where China does not want it!
3: And in any case today China doesn't want the stuff because, as mentioned above, the Aussies can supply it cheaper and also it is now obvious that the Chinese economy is in deep doo-doo and sinking fast - oh dear what a pity never mind!
Suddenly the world is a very lonely place for 'Vlad' so its just as well he has one good and true honest friend - Sepp Blatter! Here they are together, kissing in the back row:
Well at least the Mongoloid Russian has two friends.
Posted by: Whitewall | Monday, 27 July 2015 at 12:18
Probably not good news that china's economy is going into the sewer. To deflect social unrest at home China no doubt will start a war or three. Nothing better than to distract the mobs intent on lynching than by stoking up nationalist fervour.
Posted by: Antisthenes | Monday, 27 July 2015 at 15:00
Perhaps China will seize Siberia. So Russia won't need to build as much pipeline to reach China.
Posted by: backofanenvelope | Monday, 27 July 2015 at 17:16
We're all right, David, our Stock Exchange only fell 1.14% this morning.
Posted by: Kevin B | Monday, 27 July 2015 at 18:14
Who's the other one, Whiters?
Gloomy but true, alas, Antis.
Dead right, BOE, apparently the numbers of Chinese in Siberia is reaching alarming proportions. Won't be long before China insists on, er, 'protecting' them!
Pheeeew, well that's alright, then, Kevin!
Posted by: David Duff | Monday, 27 July 2015 at 18:26
David...the other one? His poodle Barack Obama.
Posted by: Whitewall | Monday, 27 July 2015 at 18:47
Oh, I thought Obama was rather chucking his weight around over Ukraine and all that.
Posted by: David Duff | Monday, 27 July 2015 at 19:03
Yes, let the Chinese know we'll turn a blind eye in the UN to an invasion of Siberia, if they lay off the disputed islands in the South China sea.
So that'll be a "Double Vespasian" on the go: Sunni vs Shia, and Sino-Russian wars simultaneously, all our enemies kicking the living shit out of each other, while we hold their coats.
That would be bloody marvellous, a real result, that would,
SoD
Posted by: Lawrence Duff | Monday, 27 July 2015 at 22:17
The rate the Chinese are buying up stuff in Australa- plus the 'free trade' agreements - they will be speaking mandarin in no time at all.
The last prime minister did already.
Posted by: john malpas | Monday, 27 July 2015 at 22:43
John malpas. The aussies are flexible. They have had to endure the Irish who do not want to go back to good old progressive Oirland.
Posted by: jimmy glesga | Tuesday, 28 July 2015 at 02:26
Lawrence, "calm down, dear!"
Thanks, John, I often wondered what language she was speaking!
Posted by: David Duff | Tuesday, 28 July 2015 at 08:43
Australia has been relying far too much in the past few years on China.
It's all about to collapse in a rather nasty heap, I fear.
A few years ago when Cairns started direct flights between China and Cairns the local paper had a banner every morning "The Chinese are coming! Are you ready?"
My partner, (who is 3rd generation Aussie/Chinese) when I enquired if he was ready, replied "Paulo Gai!!"
I made further enquiries and was informed that this translates as "Chicken & Pineapple".
Turns out he can order anything on the menu (in Cantonese, which is OUT!) and that is the total sum of his Chinese.
Posted by: Andra | Tuesday, 28 July 2015 at 08:43
I think I would pay good money to watch a Chinese and an Aussie trying to communicate!
Posted by: David Duff | Tuesday, 28 July 2015 at 09:21
Hello David, haven't been here for very long.
You've done quite a good analysis and I am surprised about your awareness of Gazprom's way of doing business.
Once heard about the Iran deal I immediately came up with an idea that something disasterous is going to happen. The point is that absolutely nothing has been done to diversify Russian economy. It still consists of oil, gas and other commodities. The government anticrisis plan, which was adopted last year, basically has no any particular steps and on a whole suggests waiting for the moment the oil price rises. Now, when Iranian oil is just about to appear at the markets and chinese economy goes down the implications for Russia may well be disasterous. In this situation the majority of obligatory payments in Russia are rising dramatically, as well as fuel prices, social programs are being wrapped, and
the apotheosis - is a long-term land lease treaty signed recently with chinese...
Posted by: Alexey (native Russian) | Tuesday, 28 July 2015 at 09:44
Good to hear from you, Alexey, and I hope you are keeping well. That rascal Richard tells me he is back in England carry a bottle of vodka, a gift from you! So I had better say thank you now before I lose my voice! Mind you, I still haven't seen Richard but he tells me he is hiring a car in August so hopefully we will meet - and I will drink!
I fear for the people of Russia. These dictators never understand the subtleties of a free market and when their entire ruling class is stealing it is impossible. Poor Russia - in all senses of the word 'poor'.
Posted by: David Duff | Tuesday, 28 July 2015 at 10:11
You are welcome, David. I deliberately chose not the best Russian vodka but the very ordinary one, which is commonly drunk by ordinary Russians. So, hope you will!
Can't disagree with you, David. Russia is probably the wealthiest country of the world in regard of all types of commodities, so it is meant to be rich and developed. But If you only knew all the situation you would probably not beleive me.
We have an access to two oceans and several seas, but good fish is very expensive, we have plenty of fertile soils but we import a lot of our potato from the desert of Egypt and Israel, when oil price goes down fuel costs grow up...
Posted by: Alexey (native Russian) | Tuesday, 28 July 2015 at 10:41
Alexey. Do take care and make your own tea.
Posted by: jimmy glesga | Tuesday, 28 July 2015 at 12:43