If Labour splits, what next?

I should warn any new readers that this blog does not enjoy a great reputation for accurate forecasting.  'It will definitely rain before Christmas' is perhaps the best of them but even so, many of my older readers will now be scrabbling about looking for their left-over sun lotions from their hols!  Even so, it now looks almost certain that 'Jezza' Corbyn and his 'Brandinistas' will take over the Labour party and the end result of that will be a political cult that will make the Greek Syriza party look rather grave and magisterial.  In or around that point, the Labour party as we have known it will cease to exist and the parliamentary party will split.

The 'splitters' will be faced with a bleak outlook.  I don't think many of us non-activists realise just how important a party organisation is to back up the ambitions of 'wannabe' politicians.  Any MP leaving the Labour party will immediately feel the chill air of loneliness.  Of course, the Lib-Dems might offer a lifeboat but who would wish to join a sinking ship?  UKIP might be worth a look provided you can avoid gazing too intently on the rank amateurs who run the outfit.  So perhaps, just perhaps, the 'splitters' might decide to just hunker down and either fight the Corbyn cultists internally , or perhaps just keep very, very schtum and hope not to be noticed. Of one thing they can be certain, any indication by them of even the faintest disagreement with the party line will bring down ruthless punishment, not just from the party apparatchiks but also the bully boys from Len McCluskey's union.

However, and here comes a second forecast (I was tempted to write 'a Duff forecast' but the joke is too obvious!) and that is that the Corbyn cult will not last past the next election.  The electoral devastation inflicted on the Labour party will be of nuclear magnitude. At that point, hopefully, the utter wets and drips currently trying to beat Corbyn in the race to the party leadership will have long gone and perhaps a new, tougher and more intellectually coherent candidate will stand on a policy of sensible democratic socialism.  It will not be easy for him or her because the Tories are currently camped out in force on just that political ground and shifting them will be a mammoth task.  However, he or she can always hope that a government party without a proper opposition is always prey to internal divisions.  For the Tories, if they can't divide on anything else, well, there's always that good old stand-by - Europe!

 

Comments

[Kevin B]

David, while I'm tempted to look on your optimistic forecast of a complete collapse of socialism with favour, I'm forced to return to your old standby, 'events, dear boy, events'.

Even if the much heralded collapse of the world economy doesn't put the boot in and Europe, China, Russia or various bands of nutters in the Middle East or North Africa don't blow up in some unforseen way, then the rank professionals of the Tory Party are quite capable of making a suitably sized bollocks of government such that the voters will turn to the Corbynistas for relief. (Even though the rank professionals of the Labour Party are in the process of bolocksing up that particular institution. Again.)

So maybe it's time to turn to the rank amateurs in UKIP. At least if they can be persuaded to stay in favour of smaller government. After all, the smaller the government, the less mess the politicians can make while running it.

[David Duff]

Weeeeeell, putting your theory to a thought experiment test, how well would the amateurs of Milborne Port FC, splendid chaps all of 'em, fare against, say, the pros of Man City? Yeeeees, quite!

[Pat]

From my limited observation the belief in socialism has declined drastically in my lifetime. To judge from the published figures for the labour leadership contest there are 600,000 willing to pay a nominal sum for a vote, and barely over half of them favour the one socialist candidate. In the 1950s you could have found millions. The Labour party has long been propped up by ex-socialists (e.g. Blair and co.), traditionalists (my dad/grandad always voted labour) and those poor naive folk who actually believe that the Tories (as presently constituted) will dismantle the NHS and the education system. There are simply not enough socialists left to ever form a government again- the more so as the present socialists are openly hostile to the idea of a nation state, and hence to this particular one- and a lot of the traditionalists are patriotic.
Blair tried to save the labour party by moving it away from socialism, but that having failed, the labour party is finished. Whether its members start a new party, join another one or give up on politics remains to be seen.
However a large number of people vote Tory not because they are in love with old Etonians but simply to keep the socialists out. If labour do in fact fade into insignificance these people will feel free to change allegiance.
The Tory party consist of Tories (the old etonians and such who believe it is their right to run things) conservatives (who simply hate change) and liberals (who since the fall of the liberal party in the 1920s had nowhere else to go).
If Ukip continues to sharpen its act up- which with the acquisition of a couple of experienced campaigners on top of simply learning from experience they should do- then they should provide a home for liberals within the current Tory party and and traditional patriots from the Labour party. Maybe some patriotic conservatives fed up with etonian fudge might also join.
Whatever the details I am convinced that the Labour party is a spent force, and that once this becomes obvious to all the Tory party will split in some way.

[Lawrence Duff]

Social Democracy is a slow failing experiment, in the same way Undemocratic Socialism was a fast failing experiment.

The monopolies, cartels, patronage, clientalism, and cronyism, and the low productivity they all engender, will take it down.

Until the entire state sector is completely sold off to privates, charities, mutuals, not-for-profits, and any other "Mittelstand" operational forms in a competitive market, the grinding decline will continue.

Until the monopoly regulators have real power to force the decomposition into smaller parts the large corporates in energy, banking, telco, pharma, supermarkets, and the prevention of their takeover by global monopolies, the decline will continue.

Until the welfare state is replaced by a high living wage, funded by the saving in public spending of ridding us of the welfare state, the decline will continue.

Until regional imbalances in common currency areas are remedied by tax incentives, rather than public sector expenditure, the decline will continue.

What is needs is a new constitution to define the neo-Liberal state: -

(1) Zero public sector

(2) All social need met by the compulsory living wage minimum; zero benefits system

(3) No operation to have more than 1% of any market; compulsory split into sub-operations less than 1% for any operation exceeding 1% of a market

(4) Regional GDP differences remedied by tax rates set by region (as done in Switzerland in the cantons).

SoD

[Cuffleyburgers]

I think you are correct there is pless belief in full-on socialism but this has been replaced by a general child like believe that government should control our lives and keep us safe from the bad world.

Despite all the evidence to the contrary that is what most people seem to believe and you only have to watch the news or read the papers to see that.

Until this changes there is no chance of sod's limited government and only the prospect of increasing unliberty, incompetently and corruptly managed from Brussels and London.

At some point teh zeitgeist will change but I suspect that is a long time in the future.

[jimmy glesga]

If Labour split it will just be an ongoing Saga. The Tories will still be in power until 2020.
Looks like the comrades will keep the Tories in power until I expire and meet Sitting Bull!

[Whitewall]

Jimmy, by then, Sitting Bull may be standing?

[jimmy glesga]

Whitewall, well said that was a feather in your cap.