My new best friend, James

I refer, of course, to Mr. James Kirkup, the exceedingly wise, shrewd and knowledgeable columnist at 'Her Majesty's Daily Telegraph' who, naturally, agrees with me!  Only last Thursday I wrote these words:

So stand by, here comes another of my forecasts and when it happens remember you read it here first: the next big political split will be on the right!

Obviously my new best friend, James, read them and today he points to the monstrous fissure already beginning to open in Tory ranks.  Yes, of course, it is Europe - what else?  He suggests that only a fairly massive vote in favour of staying in will avert the coming split:

The referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union could destroy the Conservative Party. That is not an exaggeration or a click-bait headline. It’s a simple statement of fact. The chances of that destruction may not be high, but the possibility is real.

It’s widely accepted that a British vote to leave the EU would do enormous harm to David Cameron and George Osborne, forcing the former to quit early and the latter to abandon his leadership hopes. Effectively, the electorate would decapitate the Tory leadership.

For the first five years of his premiership, Dave was able to hide behind Nick Clegg's skirts and claim that he couldn't do what he really, really wanted to do because 'mummy' wouldn't let him.  But now he's on his own.  He threw his party a bone in the form of a promise to hold a referendum but threw it far enough into the future to hope that it would just disappear.  But it hasn't and now it is festering and smelling rather bad because of those damned "events, dear boy, events" such as the brutal beating the Greeks have taken and the fact that Europe is swamped with immigrants and Brussels insists that we take our fair share of the 'swamp'.

'Every fule do no' that Dave is going to get nothing, zilch, nada, nil from his so-called renegotiation.  There is absolutely no way that those Euro fanatics in the Brussels-Berlin-Paris axis are going to allow those bloody Brits so much as a centimetre of wriggle room.  Thus, the only problem Dave and the pro-EU faction in his cabinet are trying to solve now is how to sell the resulting pile of 'brown stuff' to the GBP (Great British Public).  Their efforts should not be under-estimated, remember that Dave's one and only job outside of politics was - public relations.  Yeeeeeeeeees, quite!   The moment of decision for Dave is not far off as the 'Hefferlump' makes clear:

One day, Mr Cameron will have to tell the Conservative Party and, indeed, the country, that Frau Merkel won’t let Britain opt out of the free movement of people within the EU. Perhaps that will be when Mr Cameron proves he really does “have no romantic attachment to the European Union and its institutions”, and announces that, in the light of his failure to have Britain opt out of immigration controls, he is recommending leaving. But we should believe all that when we hear it. [My emphasis]

Meanwhile, my new best friend, James, suggests the following scenario:

Let’s say the vote is 55 "in", 45 "out". What would it mean that 45 per cent of voters had rejected the advice of the Conservative Party leadership on the most important issue of this generation? And where would those voters go after the referendum? When the 2020 election comes, will they meekly scuttle back into their previous party-political hutches like pliant rabbits? If not, where will they go, and who will lead them?

Well, given that the old Labour party no longer exists, its role having been reduced to that of street rabble rousing, Dave has moved the 'Tory'(?) party on to their old centre Left ground which is causing muttering in the ranks of true blue Right-wing Tories.  The realisation that Dave has failed miserably to alter our relationship with an increasingly imperious Brussels and that the Conservative party now positively boasts of its Democratic Socialist ideals should be enough to lead to a schism.  We are by nature and tradition a two-party democracy and in the absence of Labour then the Tories should do their duty and split into two parties, Pink and Blue.

 

Comments

[Lawrence Duff]

If the EU doesn't offer Dave what he needs, or if the offer is suspicious (which of course it will be), there is a simple solution.

Dave announces that to hold the EU to its promises, there will be another referendum 5 years after this one, if, in this one, we vote to stay in.

That gives the British people the chance to validate the EU's promises are fulfilled, or leave.

In the event we vote out now, that's it, game over with the EU. No validation in 5 years.

So that would almost guarantee we stay in, because so many are wavering and would welcome a second chance.

SoD

[Lawrence Duff]

In fact, from a purely selfish political point of view, given that Dave has said he won't be standing at the next election, he'd be better of going for a quickie EU referendum in early 2016, then a validation referendum in the last month of his government before the next election.

That way, if we vote to stay in in 2016, he gets to visibly keep the pressure on Merkel, Juncker, et al to deliver their promises. And if they do, we vote to stay in in the second referendum, and he goes on become the next EU president!

If the EU fails to deliver, and we vote to leave in the second referendum, he hands the stinking pile of mess over to someone else, as Blair did to Brown!

The "heir to Blair", indeed.

SoD

[David Duff]

Two referenda inside five years? Nah, don't think so.

Anyway, Dave will get nothing from Merkel apart from a toothy smile. Did the Holy Roman Church ever deviate to accommodate English exceptionalism? Nope! Thus it will be with the EU, it is the new religion of Europe.

[Dom]

I don't have a dog in this EU fight, but I came across something credited to Mrs. Thatcher. You know the Internet. Maybe it was someone else, but here it is: "We had to learn the hard way that by agreement to what were apparently empty generalizations or vague aspirations we were later held to have committed ourselves to political structures which were contrary to our interests.”

[Whitewall]

The Holy Roman Church....is there, lurking in the ranks of the Conservative Party, someone named "Henry"? I am reading that this current Muslim invasion has got the German people on a low boil. Maybe Frau Merkel doesn't survive?

[David Duff]

Dom, that sounds like Maggie. Surprisingly it took her some time for her to work out what a racket the EU was in reality.

'Whiters', it's difficult to see who in the higher ranks of the Tory party is willing or able to 'do a Henry'! Theresa May dropped a big hint last week with her speech attacking European-encouraged mass immigration. She desperately wants the top job and if Dave's so-called 'negotiations' look hopeless, helpless and hapless, she will be the first to head the column waving the Union Jack. But she will have to be quick because Boris Johnson, in his elliptical, upper-class accent is also making similar noises and he, too, definitely wants the top job.

Watch this space!

[Whitewall]

Will do! I don't know Boris, but I enjoy that type of mesmerizing accent. It's an American thing.

[David Duff]

Boris plays up to his public persona by acting the part of an eccentric buffoon. Do not be fooled, her is intelligent and well educated. It's just hat sometimes it's difficult to find the real Boris beneath the buffoonery!

[jimmy glesga]

David, those who voted for Boris the Bold and did so in large numbers that got him elected were clearly impressed by him.
The man is not a fool and his sense of humour should not be mistaken for him being a fool.