Seriously, I'm worried!

As I have explained 'many a time and oft', I try to avoid the Middle Eastern imbroglio for the simple reason that the complexities are so enormous as to be far beyond my comprehension.  My worry is that those set above us, and I do mean those at the very top levels, understand the situation no better than I do.  Cameron has already been demoted to Lance Corporal for his daft enthusiasm in bombing Libya, destroying Gadhafi's regime and allowing an even worse situation to arise from which, of course, he has washed his hands and walked away muttering, "Oh dear, what a pity never mind, but it was nothing to do with me!"

For once the House of Commons showed some extraordinary good sense in voting down Dave's plan to 'do a Libya' in Syria - for God's sake, does the man ever learn anything?  However, the word is that Dave's little lips are pursed with determination to try again to get Britain involved.  I hope the new Parliament is as careful as the old because now a new and potentially highly dangerous element has been added.  Russian military jets are vying with the Americans to see who is the best "glorified ground-pounder" in the business of turning the small amount of civic Syria back into desert.

The matter has now passed out of the detailed control of 'Vlad the Impaler' and 'Ol' Big Ears' and events will depend on sundry senior air force generals, and even worse, on young men with big machines and even bigger testosterone levels!  The sky above Syria has moved from being 'serious' to being 'critically dangerous'.  If 'Dim Dave' had even an iota of common-sense he would keep well out of it and tell all those senior RAF commanders to shut up and take a cold shower!

 

Comments

[Whitewall]

Let the Russian flies have at the fly paper. Obama has all but handed over the skies to Putin and his anti aircraft batteries. The Pentagon effort to train "moderate" Syrian fighters to fight only ISIS produced a goose egg. The CIA since 2013 managed to train a little over a thousand fighters to combat Assad, and these are the ones Russia is bombing with an occasional hit on an ISIS target just for window dressing. The CIA will end up abandoning its trainees to Russian attacks. End result, Obama will have his own Bay of Pigs and the Pentagon and their make believe coalition will end up quitting. If Obama is playing a "long game", it will only be until January 2017. Britain was wise to avoid the Syria gambit.

[jimmy glesga]

Whitewall. You could fit the Syrian democrats into a telephone box. When will the West realise that Islamists in what ever shape or form are more into the will of Allah and martyrdom. Our old dearly departed Winston Churchill had Islam down to a T.

[Cuffleyburgers]

Morning Duffers.

I think the problem is that dim dave and his chums do have access too much more information and better analysis than we poor souls sho have to rely on the dead tree press and the british propaganda corporation for our news.

However they are consumed with the belief that thay can and should do something about it, that their intervention can make things better, and that by doing so they can secure some sort of legacy. Besides, it is far more exciting and politically profitable to be planning bombing raids in the middle east than trying to argue the case for improving the nhs by privatising hospital management or improving the education system by taking on the fluffy teaching unions, or heaven forfend, standing up for real British interests by telling Merkel and Hollande, junker the drunker and private schulz to take a running jump.

Unlike Blair I don't think Cameron is a bad man, and is actually a decent enough prime minister; but will never be a great one unless he acquires some ideas of his own and a backbone to take on the mandarins who currently decide and execute policy.

[Backofanenvelope]

Cameron orders 1000 bomber raid!

[David Duff]

Excellent summary, Cuffers.

Sorry, BOE, but I think your finger hit the '0' button twice too many times. Mind you, finding 10 bombers might take a while!

[backofanenvelope]

Apologies from Cameron; 1000 bomber raid was op order from 1943. He has ordered RAF to drop 1000000 leaflets saying come to Germany......

[Oswald Thake]

Dammit, backofanenvelope. That's another keyboard gone!

[Whitewall]

I've noticed BOE can be rough on equipment sometimes.

[backofanenvelope]

Over the weekend the US dropped FIFTY tons of ammo to the Russians in Syria.

(from the "I don't know whether to weep or laugh" channel)

[Whitewall]

....and people around the blog-o- web doubted me when I said Obama was Putin's bitch.

[H]

We (not me personally, mind) have managed to make people nostalgic for the days of Saddam Hussein, Hafez Al-Assad, and Colonel Gaddafi. That is an outstanding achievement, surely?

If we had only had the good sense to prop them up instead of knocking them down!

[Cuffleyburgers]

@ BOE. Strictly speaking the 50 tons of weapons weren't for the russians.

Quoting zerohedge (approximately), they were dumped where the US thought there was a good chance the good guys (ie the non ISIS opposition forces) would find them.

Doesn't take away from the mind boggling stupidity of this new strategy which has been introduced since the old tactic of recruiting and training 4 fighters at a cost of 150 million dollars failed.

Quite literally, you could not make it up.

The sad thing is, innocent syrians (the vast majority) are getting hurt and killed largely as a result of these fucking idiots, and we will have to face higher taxes and grievously curtailed freedoms going forward at the very least even without the non zero possibility of a wider and possibly even catastrophic war being sparked off.

Frankly, in the light of this episode we cannot now exclude anything as being too stupid, cynical or desperately incompetent by the political elite we have so proudly elected to govern us (ie. people its our fault as much as theirs).

[Bob]

I come not to defend Ol' Big Ears, but to point out that foreign policy, like domestic, does not turn on a dime. The destabilized MENA is a product of Bush II and his poodle, your own distinguished Mr. Blair, who I have been informed here does not smoke cigars. President Obama has been trying to extricate the US from the worst of the mess whereupon he is immediately attacked by our conservatives as showing weakness. Another commenter is most likely correct that Syria is flypaper for Putin, flypaper that Obama has been wise enough to largely avoid.

[backofanenvelope]

Whether the ammo was dropped for the Russians or not - they probably got it! I don't think you can keep on blaming Bush 2 for everything, sooner or later Obama has to take the blame for something. For six years he has carried out his "wrecking ball" policy. The Arab world is in ruins. Even if the islamo-fascists vanished in a puff of smoke this afternoon, Syria, Libya, Iraq, The Yemen, Egypt, all are in ruins. And it certainly isn't my fault!

[Cuffleyburgers]

BOE - aye and therein lies the rub.

In theory, in a Western Democracy, they governing by consent and so tacitly (ridiculously) you could argue that by consenting to be governed by them we are condoning their activities.

In reality of course the majority of the population are rather wiser than the government on most matters, but when push comes to shove the government do what they like. Therefore they are in breach of their moral authority, but what recourse do we have?

we can wait 5 years and vote to kick the feckers out but maybe, other people will vote to keep them. It is also highly probable, certainly in the UK that on 70% of matters both main parties have similarly crap policies so whom can one vote for with a clean conscience? And anyway 80% of laws or something come from Brussels and nobody bothers pretending any more that there is any democratic control over them.

So have we consented tacitly by not conducting a violent revolution and hanging the feckers?

Or by limiting ourselves to grumpy blog posts rather than standing armed against this sea of troubles, and by opposing ending them?

This is much more than idel chit chat. When government limited itself to catching burglers, stringing up murderers, and emptying the bins everything was fine. Now it has taken it upon itself to control and micromanage every aspect of our lives the issue of consent needs to be reviewed.

and maybe we need to devote a significantly larger part of our time at the very least actively and energetically and effectively opposing government policies we do not like, and holding our MPs to account.

[Cuffleyburgers]

Sorry BoE pressed the send button too soon...

And here in the UK, standing armed has been outlawed so we have little choice other than to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous misgovernment.

[JK]

"I come not to defend Ol' Big Ears, but to point out that foreign policy, like domestic, does not turn on a dime."

True enough Bob, as far as it goes but then shit does happen doesn't shit?

The name Tarek el-Tayeb Mohamed Bouazizi ring a bell?

"The destabilized MENA is a product of Bush II ..."

I'd echo Bob, BOE's expressed sentiments above at 1509 this date of 13 October.

[Andra]

Thanks JK.

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CBwQFjAAahUKEwi3-8Gaj8DIAhXMEpQKHYKVAxg&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FMohamed_Bouazizi&usg=AFQjCNE-m0jGI6bBrLBL0uFNCH8aPVmWZw&sig2=KgEnNLYrIovhZ_YLUF7cZw&bvm=bv.105039540,d.dGo

[jimmy glesga]

Andra. I have never given thought to setting myself on fire. I would leave that to the municipal authorities on my death.

[Lawrence Duff]

Nonsense,the only thing to worry about is the Assad, Rooskie, Iranian, Shia axis not getting proper stuck in. All this pussy footing around, where's this ground assault we were promised?

All the time the IS, Saudi, Turkish, Sunni axis are not being kept busy, they're plotting against us.

If Putin needs some ammo to get his lot on the move, give it him.

SoD

[jimmy glesga]

Lawrence. A ground assault will result in a lot of people getting killed. Those Islamists are just inviting death. It is better just surrounding them, starving them the way the Romans did in the old days and enjoying the wine.

[JK]

Well SoD if "we've" got close to where the thinking goes on the air-dropped ammo the following is our consensus. But it looks as if either a US or a UK General Officer (possibly in tandem) developed the plan, such as it is:
_______

Several groups fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have formed a new alliance, which they have named the Democratic Forces of Syria (DFS). The new alliance contains a mix of Kurdish and Arab fighters, including the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) the Free Syrian Army (FSA), and Syriac Christians, an unlikely mix to be sure.
Given the composition of the known named forces coupled with the (BIG IF) Syriac "Christians" in some appreciable fighting number the air dropped small arms ammo most likely (70% +/- confidence) took place in the vicinity of Saluq Syria SSE of the Turkish held border crossing of Akcakale.
One big problem for any new and untested (not to mention newly formed) conglomerate moving south to the probable target of Raqqa is one-third the distance there - they run headlong into forward deployed elements of ISIL. And assuming the "new alliance" achieves breakthrough - two thirds of the distance from Saluq to Raqqa puts the new force directly in the area Russian planes bombed no longer than 48 hours ago.
_______

On the bright side - the Russians have yet to be confirmed bombing either Kurds or Christians.

[Lawrence Duff]

Sounds like the the Judean People's Popular Front. Managed to load up the entire outfit with 1 magazine and 3 grenades. I heard they gave the surplus to AQ.

Worrying that Hezbollah, Hamas, whoever on the Shia axis is finding time to wind the Palestinians up enough to have a pop at the Jews.

If the JPPF get things going again then great.

SoD

[Lawrence Duff]

Ah, this is more like it! : -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11930415/Thousands-of-Iranian-troops-arrive-in-Syria-for-Aleppo-offensive.html

Who let the TOW's out, who, who-who, who-who? (or however that awful song goes).

Do you remember that scene from Blazing Saddles, when the bad guy puts a request out to all the meanest, cruellest, motherfuckers of the world to join his posse? A queue forms in front of the bad guy signing them up, and the camera pans down the line of the various nastiest bastards from history: Spanish inquisition, KKK, SS, all casually chatting about torture methods as they wait? Can't find the whole scene, just this bit: -

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2_urvjCXg6c

Well imagine Dim Dave and Old Big Ears have just signed up two posses of the world's baddest men, and now they are just about to kick the living shit out of each other in a far away place.

Armchair, beer, and connection to D&N required, and plenty of "ooohs", and "aaaahs", but no oranges at half time.

SoD

[David Duff]

Whatever else, SoD, you have a way with words. Can't think where you get it from!

[JK]

Ya know SoD if I didn't "know" any better (because I'm so well informed by the US Media) I might get trapped into the illusion the Russian and the US *Strategy* is one and the same.

That "refugee safe zone" everybody in our State Department keeps talking about is supposedly to have as its western edge, a line about 20 kilometers east of Aleppo and as its eastern edge Qarah Qawzak. Bounded on the north by Turkey and to the south about the Syrian place Manbij.

Oddly - that tract was proposed back in August And prior to the arrival of Force-Russia.

Eerily - those borders (with the exception of the just to the east regime-held line from Harah in the north down to Tartus in the south) anyway, those borders are damned closely matching where Russia is concentrating its aerial attacks.

If the Telegraph article is correct.

***

I make no assertions.

[Lawrence Duff]

Just found the full scene: -

https://youtu.be/ryvljjccqL8

Absolutely brilliant. Note the Camel Shaggers get a look in (how prescient!), plus the hat tip reference to the time honoured phrase "We don't need no stinking badges": -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stinking_badges

I don't know if you remember, you took me in the late seventies to see Blazing Saddles followed by The Life of Brian at the Bracknell fleapit.

You can sense the impression it made on me because I'm still talking about it.

Plus "The Holy Grail", I honestly think there is nothing about Liberty, the individual, power, the state, and the relationships between them, that's worth knowing that isn't covered off in those three comedies.

The 1970's was good for something.

SoD

[Whitewall]

SoD, you are a man of culture.

[David Duff]

You're right, Lawrence, that was the last era before political correctness murdered wit and humour. I really thought I was going to wet myself when I first saw "Life of Brian". Anyway, that's your Xmas present prob sorted as regards what to give 'old Popsie' - a DVD of that film!

Don't encourage him too much, Whiters, it will only increase bombast!

[JK]

Oh Whitewall is as merely affected as I'm finding myself, almost shedding a tear in my Sentimentalist's mode

That the prodigal son finally - before it's too late - reconciles with the father in his dotage is almost too much to bear!

Hell. Even Willy hisself couldn't compose a better final curtain.

David? In your will you gonna be leaving mowing the churchyard to SoD?

(I'm imagining how greatly the Coen brothers will change mine and Whitewall's screenplay so that Whitewall and I won't have to go overlong with our acceptance speech[es] at the Oscars.)

[Whitewall]

JK I hear ya! I have always been frightfully modest in my speeches, especially when I'm awarded something I deserve....