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Friday, 23 October 2015

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I read the article in question and am aghast.

The have exceeded even their previous efforts at blatant anti-democracy, in a country that in living memory was a fascist dictatorship!

Chapeau! (as we Europeans say)

However, it's all grist to the Brexit mill and to that extent can be construed as good news.

Events in Spain are now presumably a little closer to coming to a head as the Catalans and the Basques will be watching events unfold next door.

Iberia is set to make your average tinderbox look like a wet bonfire in November.

If Junker was an admirer of Coleridge, he would doubtless put it after a half pint of grape brandy for breakfast, "look upon my works ye mighty and despair".

I am as aghast as you.

P.S. I think you meant Shelley.

But I thought Portugal was a republic, with a president who was also elected, not a parliamentary democracy? Aren't they having a presidential election in January, and so in the mean time, while he's still president, isn't he merely exercising his constitutional right to appoint the PM?

You do have to take AEP with a pinch of salt, you know. He's mighty pissed at the Greek Oxi-bolloxy, and seeing the Jerries triumph - again - in spite of his 5 year long predictions of the imminent demise of the Euro. He'll say anything to talk up the next crisis. Now he's strayed into telling half truths, which is a shame. Desperado, (as we Portuguese speakers say).

What is more interesting, is even Juncker the Drunker seems to think it's all over: -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11949038/Europes-glory-days-at-an-end-warns-Juncker.html

You'll miss him when we're gone; and Corbyn, the Northerners, the public sector, and the Sweaties take over and turn the clock back to 1974. You'll be practically begging for anyone right wing. And when Britain goes bust, and cap in hand back to the EU, ECB, and IMF, you'll wish we'd had a presidential republic. But that nice Mr Juncker will try to take the squeeze out of the Kaiserin's warm embrace,

SoD

@ SoD:

"Presidential powers include the appointment of the Prime Minister and the other members of the Government (where the President is obligated by the results from Legislative Elections)" [...]
The Government is both the organ of Sovereignty that conducts the general politics of the country and the superior body of the Public Administration."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portugal#Chief_of_State

So in your, er, peculiar Euro vision of democracy it's perfectly alright for 50.5% of the country to vote one way and for a nominal 'Head of State' to ignore it. And I always thought that turkeys never voted for Xmas!

And today I hear on the BBC that Brussels is insisting that all farmers in the UK in receipt of EU funds (ie, OUR money!) must display placards of a certain size on their land advertising the fact or the money will be seized back. The slight noise you heard was the wax effigy of Joe Stalin smiling slightly!

SOD - anybody who thinks the EU is all that is between us and a re-run of the seventies is seriously off his trolley.

It is quite obvious to anybody who cares to look that neither the euro nor the EU will last for ever therefore they will end at some point. The only question is when?

AEP is doing his job trying to read the tealeaves and possibly rearranging them a wee bit. But the fact remains that they can't keep these plates spinning for ever and once one crashes down things will get interesting.

It was quite exciting for a time but really it was never going to be Greece. I doubt it will be Portugal. But it all adds to the tension. Like the proverbial hurricane, once the ingredients are in place and pressure has built up all it takes is the single beat of a butterfly wing half a world away to set it off. More prosaicly, we all know of the cataclysm unleashed by a pistol shot in Sarajevo 101 years ago.

I' m not saying the break up of the EU will be that epochal but it has been 70 years in the making and involves the proudest and most powerful nations in Europe at its centre who between them are respnsible for 90%of the bloodletting in Europe over the last quarter millenium, so in my view the further we can be from the epicentre when it goes off, the better.

The tension is rising. Portugal is fuelling it. Spain in my view will add. So will the next French election. A winter refugee crisis, and the Brexit referendum. At some point it will blow. The introduction of associate membrship will reduce the tension but only delay an historically inevitable "denoument", as we europeans say.

ein schoenen Tag noch!!

@ Popsy

And now the full quote (AEP's got some competition in the half truth stakes ...)

Chief of State

The Chief of State of Portugal is the President of the Republic, elected to a five-year term by direct, universal suffrage. He has essentially supervision and reserve powers. These powers are often compared with the "moderator power" that was held by the King in the Portuguese Constitutional Monarchy. Presidential powers include the appointment of the Prime Minister and the other members of the Government (where the President is obligated by the results from Legislative Elections); dismissing the Prime Minister; dissolving the Assembly of the Republic (to call early elections); vetoing legislation (which may be overridden by the Assembly); and declaring a State of War or siege. The President is also the nominal Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces."

So the President of Portugal is elected by universal suffrage, and appoints the PM.

In other words, he's behaved perfectly in accordance with the constitution.

I like the "double lock" of Republic's, where the executive (president) is separated from the legislative (and obviously judicial) bodies, and both executive and legislative are elected. The non-linearity of it can only lead to good things: Checks and balances during divisive times, slowing impulsive action, only moving forward when unity is prevalent.

Before the lefties are given a mandate to break the relationship with the EU, they need to get a lefty president elected. January it is. If the peeps are that certain about birding the EU, they will elect a lefty president.

But even if they do, it will just be another Oxi-Bolloxy. A sort of periphery whinging and whining, a teenager's "oh, do I 'ave to, it's sooo unfair", just like the Northerners, public sector, Sweaties in Blighty.

Already the Portuguese lefties have ratted on half the bird.

That's what it is really: A half-bird Oxi-Bolloxy. The whingers and whiners know that if they ever stood firm in birding the EU and got ejected, the ultimate non-linear forces of the market would make them do stuff by way of reform and experience austerity the like of which the Kaiserin could only dream of.

But we must wait patiently while due Democratic process runs its course. Flat of the blade with Latinos, it's true.

SoD

@ Cuffers

I'm not as sure as I once was that the EU and Euro will come crashing down. I'm not saying it won't, mind, either.

The Kaiserin is like a strict single Mum with a bunch of teenage kids all hitting hormonal-hell at the same time. Greece birded Mum, and has now been roundly spanked and is standing in the naughty corner, pour encourager les autres The others are now well aware of Mum's sternness.

But the big message that really hit home with the spotty ones, was Mum's limit stated plainly by Schaueble: We will let you go if you continue.

Now, I remember my own late teenage most abominable single bit of behaviour, and receiving a similar message. Nothing is so fearful as hitting the limit and staring out into the wilderness when you know you're still covered in zits and angst.

Up until now I thought that Mum might need a Dad to help keep the nippers in check, but now it appears she's fairing quite well on her own. Les autres sont encourage. Punishment seen, and banishment threatened have done the trick. And having a new Dad around comes with its share of obligations, and she's too old for that sort of thing.

Which sadly means that Blighty's chance of becoming new Dad is getting remoter by the day. She can stick with her wimpy Monsieur for a no strings, occasional "fuck buddy" when it suits, sort of liaison.

From you outters and Ukippers perspective, that's exactly what you want. Dave will come back with bugger all from Mum. The very last thing you want is a teenager actually doing a runner, coz then Mum will will have lost control and need help. In that case, Dave might come back with something.

SoD

Well, SoD, given that the Portuguese president has over-ridden the will of the people by refusing to allow a majority coalition to form a government against the will of 50.5% of the voters, then you will presumably raise no argument if the said coalition appeals to the people and deposes the president! Illegal sauce for both goose and gander!

However, I agree that Portugal is not going to tip the balance. I have said for years on this blog and I will repeat it again that it is Italy which will eventually bring it all down.

Well I see this Telegraph article is showing up on blogs over here now. AE-P gets around.

SoD - L do like your teenage mum analogy. But the point is the krauts cant hold it together for ever

We know they're going to subsidise the rest of Europecfor ever and we know the rest of Europe wont tolerate the insane policies imposed by the Frankfurt/brussels axis fir ever. So its just a question of what breaks first. I disagree with Duff sr that it will be Italy. the wops make a lot of noise but they are at the end of the catholics and so highly conformist.

For me the break will come from north, and from the most unexpected direction.

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