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Friday, 20 November 2015

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Obama is interested in defeating America at home, not ISIS over there. It is a strategy to get himself to Jan. 21, 2017.

Perhaps Obama is following Lawrence's plan - do just enough to keep them fighting each other?

Thank you Duffers, a very interesting post.

As Zerohedge seems imply in his other article, possibly the most likely explanation is to avoid knocking out ISIS completely so as to keep the pressure on Assad.

This sounds an absolutely typical move of the miserably cynical and malignantly incompetent US secret services - these same paragons who brought us the taliban, fast & furious, and in former years Iran-contra, the bay of pigs, the shah of Iran (arguably kicking off the whole fucking shooting match).

Looked at from the point of view of the O'bama whitehouse, it keeps the pressure on Assad, it lowers global spot prices which will a) act as an unofficial economic stimulus to the global economy but more importantly b) will help put the US shale industry out of business, it gives the ruskies something to do outside Ukraine and the world's press something to talk about besides the utter horlicks the west's political leaders are making of our world.

It's all good. If the Syrian civil war were to end the USA would have to do something useful. As it is the flow of money to US arms makers continues, without even the inconvenience of large numbers of body bags to upset Joe public.

It's all good. And somebody else can pick up the pieces, O'bama couldn't give a shit about Syrians as long as it doesn't blot his escutcheon.

Oh, I meant to include this if there is any doubt:
http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2015/11/obama-wants-to-defeat-america-not-isis.html

Very good link, 'Whiters', perhaps a tad repetitive but very sound. I have him bookmarked.

My employer lost at least one of its oilfields and associated facilities to ISIS during the civil war. We shut it down safely, capped the well, and got our people out of there but bloody ISIS have only gone and started it back up again! They're only producing at about 10% of the capacity, and probably the export line went a long time ago, but they are actually recruiting oilfield personnel and advertising for them globally. Why they are not bombing the trucks is anyone's guess, but I expect they've laid off from bombing the facilities for three reasons: 1) their rightful owners might not like it much, 2) the environmental damage might be huge, especially if oil leaks into the Euphrates, and 3) the oil production is likely to be the cornerstone of any future post-Assad/post-ISIS government. I work with a Syrian lad now who used to work on one of our captured facilities, I have good fun teasing him about being sent back imminently.

Thanks, Tim, always interesting to get some expertise round here. I trust your Syrian lad has a good sense of humour!

"It was 'SoD' (well done, my boy, good to see you inherited your father's intelligence gene!) who pointed us all to the oil trade which provides ISIL with much of their cash - although not all of it by any means. ... Apparently it was only in May, following a raid by US Special Forces on an ISIL HQ that the Americans realised ... "

Yes of course there David - but perhaps 'they'd' realised somewhat earlier had they only been reading D&N.

You'll note it's not only US produced barrels having the price drop? Two things are afoot *I think* ... Ukraine and impinging on ISIL's revenue streams.

From Sunday, 16 November 2014 at 18:59

http://duffandnonsense.typepad.com/duff_nonsense/2014/12/so-maybe-the-saudis-will-blink-first.html

Obama knows he can play the game of "Whack-a-Mole" any time and rub out ISIL in a morning by targeting those trucks and micro-oil processing facilities.

But that's not a long term solution. We Whack-a-moled the Taliban and AQ and learned we were only playing Whack-a-mole not solving the problem.

He believes the permanent solution is to turn the ME and Islamic world in on itself as only they can solve the problem permanently.

I agree, but ...

The solving of the problem in this way I think will involve a century or more Wars of Religion type conflict the full length and breadth of the ME and Islamic world, with 1 in every 2 or 3 losing their lives (as happened in the European equivalent 4-500 years ago). I personally don't have a problem with that, but Obama might (or maybe he doesn't?).

Obama possibly thinks a political solution will be forthcoming from the ME and Islamic world if "turned in on itself" reasonably quickly, but really this is just the same thing at either ends of the political scale. War is just politics by other means, and all that.

Probably it will pan out somewhere in between those two extremes, if it is allowed to happen.

If Hollande and the Whack-a-molers get their way it's like pressing the reset button and starting again; we'll get a few years respite, like we did from Taliban and AQ, then ISIL 2 will arrive.

Bait and Bleed the ME and Islamic world until they wipe themselves out or reach a political solution, in a nutshell.

SoD

I suspect, SoD, that your thinking is far too subtle for what passes as the Washington, let alone the Whitehall, mind-set. Not least of the factors involved in Washington is the fairly obvious fact that Obama really doesn't like his own country very much!

I wonder how far Hollande is prepared to go down the Whack-a-Mole track?

Might a sustained splurge of Jerry money on defence lift France's economy off the rocks, and "la victoire" over ISIL ingratiate him with the voters enough to get him re-elected? I bet he's giving it a serious cud-chew.

Will the Jerries let him spend their money this way?

And will Obama give him the intell from that SF raid that gleaned all the oil production infrastructure coordinates and details?

Or is Obama a control freak who can't bear to let an ally take control of a situation?

And if the three-way war becomes two-way because ISIL are out for the count, what happens with the West and Putin left facing each other in no longer a proxy war?

It's like Game of Thrones without having to pay a cent to HBO.

SoD

According to this link (see below), American pilots take off for operations and about 75% of them return without having used their ordnance because they cannot get clearance for the attacks from Washington. You couldn't make it up!

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/us-pilots-confirm-obama-admin-blocks-75-percent-of-isis-strikes/

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