Post-Paris predictions

None of you need my formal warning concerning the dire record of predictions here at D&N so I will just steam ahead and tell you what I think will be the likely results of the Paris massacre.

1:  Mrs. Merkel will be toppled.  The folly, verging on criminal negligence, in throwing open the borders of Europe, in general, and the borders of Germany, in particular, will be the final straw to break the back of her Right-wing coalition. 

2:  The OUT vote will win the UK referendum. 

3:  The Schengen Agreement allowing free movement in Europe will be severely restricted to the point of making it meaningless, either by EU authorities or more likely by national governments.

4:  The actual collapse of the EU will thus be brought that much nearer.

ADDITIONAL:  Oooops, sorry, I left an obvious one out:

5:  Marine le Pen and her National Front will win BIG TIME at the next election.

 

 

Comments

[backofanenvelope]

It won't matter if The Dumpy One is toppled. There are no alternative German leaders with the guts to sort out the Islamo-fascists.

[Lawrence Duff]

You're sounding like the terrorists have done your dirty work for you.

What is it, a pat on the back and "Allahu Akbar, Mon Cher"?

Perhaps Ukip will run a black flag up the flag pole at their HQ.

Your above list is exactly what IS, AQ, et al, want us to do. Therefore, we should do the exact opposite.

If the terrorists turn out to be French born then it will be nothing to do with Schengen, immigrants, or Merkel.

So as well as being strategic folly to enact your list, it would be an illogical response too.

But history is full of traps into which the stupid have fallen, so I'm not saying your list will not happen.

SoD

[David Duff]

BOE, I think Schauble (have I spelled his name right?) is worth watching.

Lawrence, it will not matter where the terrorists were born, it is their Muslim beliefs that matter and increasingly it will be the ordinary people (dread words!) who will finally come to the conclusion that enough is enough. Where that will lead is impossible to say with accuracy, I merely list a few possibilities above.

[Lawrence Duff]

"There are no alternative German leaders with the guts to sort out the Islamo-fascists."

Maybe not, but there are plenty of Islami-fascists with the guts to sort out Islami-fascists.

Problem is we need to follow through on letting them get on with it.

This is not a prediction, but if it turns out those terrorists were thwarted in attempts to go to Syria by Western security services, and so did their terror in Paris, or, if they returned from Syria because there wasn't enough Islamist-on-Islamist action to keep them busy, you might eventually see my point.

If, however, they were Syria immigrants who walked across Europe from Syria to Paris with Kalashnikovs and explosives to do what they did, then I will still say it's the exception that proves the rule.

Let's wait and see.

SoD

[backofanenvelope]

We have been "waiting and seeing" for decades. The Muslims have been at this for 1400 years. It is what they do. We need to persuade them to stop doing it and that is going to take harsher measures than our current rulers will contemplate, let only take.

[Antisthenes]

So the religion of peace has been sending out it's message of peace again in it's usual atrocious way. Blind belief of sky fairies gives any fundamentalist a reason and to them a right to be barbaric. Religion all religions have a lot to answer for as countless millions and growing have suffered because of blind faith in them.

SoD they probably are home grown born in France terrorist in effect a 5th column. Islam is on the move and a new front has been open up to further it's imperialist ambitions. I have said it before and say it again and before you protest consider this Islam is a political movement rapped up in religion that uses jihad to further it's objective. All Muslims are bound by their religion to actively or passively support jihad. Advocating what you consider the response should be the opposite of DD's you are in fact complicit in helping Islam achieve that which it desires. Our conversion or enslavement.

DD's predictions may or may not occur. I would add my own prediction to his and that is tolerance of migrants of the Islamic religious persuasion is going to vanish. I hope it does and that the EU, other Europeans and the West as a whole start to tackle Islamic migrants and home born ones in a manner that will eradicate their threat once and for all. Of course it will take the stomach to do it and no interference from bleeding heart moralists who are just another form of 5th columnists doing Islam's dirty work.

[Lawrence Duff]

@BOE and Anti

It's like the old school playground. A fight starts between two gang members. Quickly a circle forms with the chant of "fight, fight, fight".

Two further processes occur.

All the gang members who were harassing kids in other parts of the playground stop what they're doing and rush to the circle to join the fight.

And, importantly, those who were hanging out in the circle, possibly with mild affiliations to the gang, but on sight of what gangs are really all about, and the blood and carnage they bring, decide they don't like it, and leg it.

If these two processes are left uninterfered with, you end up with the gangsters and nutters in the circle, and the ordinary kids outside the circle. It's like centrifuge separating two types of chemicals, or a gold prospector's sifting pan.

The ordinary kids who always hated the gangs chant "fight, fight, fight", and the ex-affiliates watch more quietly.

And so the gangs destroy themselves and their brutality witnessed turns the ex-affiliates into ordinary kids.

So let the Sunni and Shia Islamists passage to Syria and slaughter each other while the rest of us and the Syrian and Iraqi immigrants watch in horror (but security), and so see what these two faction are all about.

500 years ago we did it in Europe in the Wars or Religion, only then it was far harder for the ordinary folks and ex-affiliates to clear the circle. Discovering America helped.

So don't disturb natures self-healing remedy to gang illness: Let the Islamists of both persuasions go to Syria Iraq, take the immigrants to the West, and spectate the self-service destruction match between the two gangs.

SoD

[Lawrence Duff]

Sorry, double comment, please remove one Goebbels, if you can spare a moment from the propaganda printing press.

SoD

[backofanenvelope]

You are just refusing to accept the problem is Islam. There are not "nice" Muslims and "naughty" Muslims; there are just Muslims.

[Antisthenes]

SoD. All very illuminating and true but you have forgotten one thing. It is all fine and well if the gangs keep their murdering ways to their own backyard and each other. However letting them anywhere near ours and it spills over and expands and sucks us in is another matter. The current Muslim gangs are all for the latter and actively working on doing exactly that as their terrorist atrocities and other activities here in the West prove to that being the case.

If we do not want it happening in our own back yard then we have to make sure our back yard is swept clean and kept that way of gang members and potential gang members.

[Lawrence Duff]

So what sort of Christians are there?

Are they all like this lot?: -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord%27s_Resistance_Army

SoD

[Lawrence Duff]

"If we do not want it happening in our own back yard then we have to make sure our back yard is swept clean and kept that way of gang members and potential gang members."

I agree with your ends, Anti, it's your means I'm not convinced of.

Dr G has added another prediction to his list to which my comments equally apply - with bells on, in fact.

A le Pen National Front France is exactly what IS AQ wants, so the fight becomes us and them, rather than them and them.

That's the trap they're setting for us. We mustn't fall for it.

SoD

[backofanenvelope]

Oh for God's sake Lawrence. The fight IS between them and us!

[Peter Whale]

SoD The Chineese have trouble with Muslims the Russians have trouble with Muslims the Australians have trouble with Muslims the French,Danes Swedes, Dutch and anywhere Muslims are the indigenous population have trouble with Muslims the Muslims have trouble with other Muslims. Do you get the picture the problem is Muslims.

[Antisthenes]

"Oh for God's sake Lawrence. The fight IS between them and us!"

Damn BoE what a good response. I wish I had thought of it.

Sod. Does the end justify the means? Generally it does not. However when a situation is so perilous that you do not use any means however distasteful to ensure that the end result is your own and others around you their continued safety and well being then you are being criminally negligent. In the metaphorical sense that is I mean no aspersions on your character SoD I know you are well intentioned just in my opinion naieve.

[Whitewall]

What kind of Christians will defeat Islam? The same kind who fire bombed Dresden and dropped A-bombs on Japan and a few other incidents. Islam is aiming for the weakest points of Western countries, USA included, those points are: civilians and civilian governing elites. I understand the city of Paris has a large section that is called "no go" by law officers. Islam occupies this part of Paris and France already. It is not the "who" it is the "what"- Islam.

[Lawrence Duff]

If you let the fight become one between us and them, then we will become them.

Here's another fantastic podcast from Dan Carlin about the period in American history at the end of the 19th beginning of the 20th century: -

http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-49-the-american-peril/

Amongst the many threads of this brilliant broadcast the one I draw your attention to is the way the American military adopted the barbarity level of the adversary in the two wars of the period: The Spanish War, and the Philippines War.

In the Spanish War the Americans fought with chivalry and high standards of regard for the Western rules of war, evening cheering the Spanish admiral they fished out of the water next to his sinking ship for his exceptional bravery.

Then the rebel turns emperor!

And in the Philippines War fighting the guerillas who sliced genitals off prisoners and stuffed them in the prisoners mouths before boiling them alive etc. etc. yawn, yawn, guess how the US army ended up fighting that war?

Now if you end up fighting the Hairies in the way the Hairies fight, which, as said, from history appears to be likely what will happen, will I (me-me-me) be any better off after the war is over with you living next door, or a Hairy?

SoD

[David Duff]

Happy to agree with you on that point, SoD. This 'war' has to be fought with intelligence, using that word in all its meanings. Heavy-handed brutality will simply play into the hands of the 'hairies'.

However, bearing in mind recent disagreements with Richard, that does not mean that we shouldn't deploy every resource possible in the collection of intelligence/evidence by covert means and bugger the finer feelings of The Guardian readership!

[Lawrence Duff]

Peter, you've got it!

"Do you get the picture the problem is Muslims."

Yes, 100%, been saying it for years.

Islam needs a War of Religion and a reformation to bring it up to enlightenment, and you've spotted the opportunity for that to happen without involving us, and that Muslims are gagging to get started! -

"Muslims have problems with Muslims."

Bull's eye!

Now if all Muslims were united, that would be a different matter, much more dangerous to us, and needing a different strategy.

And the one thing you could do to ensure that more dangerous problem occurs in pick up IS and AQ's gauntlet!

That's why they've thrown the gauntlet down, so you pick it up and unite Islam's moderates and extremists who, if left alone, will happily destroy themselves.

SoD

[Whitewall]

"Islam needs a War of Religion and a reformation to bring it up to enlightenment". What if they have finished it and the result is what we are seeing as the finished product?

[backofanenvelope]

Try this http://www.steynonline.com/7293/the-barbarians-are-inside-and-there-are-no-gates

[Lawrence Duff]

I think you've made that point before Whiters, and it did make me reflect.

So the point is the Christian church had deviated from the words of Christ, indulgences, burning witches, pulling out finger nails, corrupt wealth accumulation, institutionalized kiddy fiddling etc., and so it reformed back to the words of Christ, and the Wars of religion kicked off. Whereupon the reformers who wanted the church to return to the words of Christ (God) sank in their behaviour to the level of the established church they railed against, or even worse!

I give you Dan Carlin's Munster podcast again for your "too unbelievably pertinent to be missed" attention and delectation -

http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-48-prophets-of-doom/

The net result of this was a more moderate Protestant and Catholic church and following.

Now we have Islam, that was gradually departing from enacting fire and brimstone conquest words of Allah as relayed by the prophet, especially after the Mongols took the wind out of their sails ...

http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-43-wrath-of-the-khans-i/

... who are also now reforming back to their original Allah's words, with attendant conflict. Both established and reformers will annihilate each other and the outcome will be the same: Moderate medorates, and moderate ex-extremists.

And the good Lord will be left sitting up there saying to himself "Fucking hell, what do I have to do before you guys get it? I sent you a good guy and you pull out finger nails, burn witches, etc., and I send you Darth Vader and you do the same".

Maybe when the consequences of both have run their course, mankind will finally get it?

SoD

[Antisthenes]

"That's why they've thrown the gauntlet down, so you pick it up and unite Islam's moderates and extremists who, if left alone, will happily destroy themselves."

Sod. With that I agree with you. It has happened before not exactly the same but similar during the time of the first crusade. At that time Muslims were very disunited so the first crusade was an easy success. However that success changed disunity into unity and it was all down hill for the crusaders from there on. So yes we must not do anything that unites them against a common enemy us with so many of them already inside our fort.

Although under the circumstances I cannot see any alternative if we are going to keep ourself safe from their depravities. And this time is not the boot on the other foot and we throw them out. Also would it not ensure that there would then be clear battle lines and we would not for ever be looking over our backs because of the threat of hidden attackers. In such a circumstance all the advantage would would be with us. We have superior fire power and we could look to settle matters much more easily by diplomatic means. And this time the Holy land is under friendly control. A base from which we can make their lives very uncomfortable indeed.

However throwing the Muslims out of the West as they threw the crusaders out of the Middle East can only be accomplished by unification of the West under a common purpose that would have many benefits. One of which would be poetic justice but then Christians had no right being there any more than Muslims have any right being here and wanting to lord it over us. At least the crusade was to right an injustice the treatment of Christians visiting the holy land. The land and power grab that happened as well was just a bye product but was inevitable and not in retrospect a very savoury thing to do. As changing our culture, laws and beliefs is going to be just a bye product of the Islamic invasion that is currently happening in the West and they are not coming to right an injustice.

[Whitewall]

SoD those are truly excellent resources you have provided and the history of the Christian Church and Christians themselves over the centuries shows many blemishes that are completely unchristian. But they do not amount to moral equivalence in our understanding of and coming war with Islam.

I don't believe Islam was in a state of gradual departure from fire and brimstone conquest of the world, at least not the Islam of the Middle East. All it took was the return of the Ayatollah to Iran in 1979 for the whole bloody mess to start again. We in the West mark time passage differently than the Muslim East. We accomplish things for the betterment of ourselves and those who want to participate. Islam uses what we create to enrich itself and strengthen itself for other means. If those means require centuries to complete, then that is fine with them. We create life giving means and Islam laps up the drops of any spillage.

If Islam would be good enough to return en mass to the Middle East and have it out once and for good, then fine with me. But they won't. They will do that in the Middle East and at the very same time they will wage jihad in Western cities against civilized civilians as well as each other if the opportunity arises. They have nothing else to do. Nothing to build or create for the benefit of their new home countries. Those things are done by productive Western people--Christian, Jews and the unchurched who are of like mind. We will need to accept than reality.

[JK]

Point of Order ...

"We in the West mark time passage differently than the Muslim East."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adoption_of_the_Gregorian_calendar

'Well don't you have anything to add JK?'

Nope. BOE's easier for y'all to translate. (Although it might be something of "A Bridge Too Far" - oddly enough - so is SoD.)

[Lawrence Duff]

"unification of the West under a common purpose that would have many benefits."

You don't say, Anti?! My sentiments entirely.

You must be pro-EU then, not like the Billy No Mates philosophy of Dr G and the D&N brigade ...

SoD

[Hank]

David

I have read in several places that the German Socialist (and many European socialist) do oit really want the UK in in the European Union even if their official policy says so. If Dr Merkel should go out of office, it is quite possible they will feel the minimum requirements for British participation are items that will be unacceptable to a far larger number of your countryman.

[Richard]

I have a few points to make here...
There was a marvellous cartoon in the Telegraph recently showing an MI5 type trawling through everyone's computer correspondence with the caption: :"Look, another funny cat cartoon." It made the point very well that the sheer volume of correspondence to be sifted through would be overwhelming. It is incredibly, incredibly unlikely that, even if the French spooks had been given carte blanche to trawl through everybody's e-knicker drawers, they would have come up with anything in time that would have given them notice of what was going to happen, particularly as the Islamists are extremely I.T. savvy and unlikely do anything to give themselves away. I can only paraphrase what was said in an earlier thread, by myself and others. If you give the authorities powers without adequate safeguards, those powers will ALWAYS, ALWAYS be abused, and to turn our country into a totalitarian shit-hole as a knee-jerk response is to throw the baby out with the bath-water.

Secondly, the nature of the attack is worth commenting on. It seems that it was a classic Mumbai style operation where the terrorists, who were tooled up with AKs and grenades, were considerably better armed than the local police. Consequently, they were able to inflict the maximum number of casualties before reinforcements could be brought in to contain them. It is very much worth mentioning that AKs, grenades and explosives are very low-tech kit these days and widely available in just about any country in the world. Although it seems to have been well planned and coordinated, this sort of operation is relatively easy to set up without leaving a trail of electronic clues for any aspiring e-Sherlock Holmes to latch onto.

Also, I think that it is worth mentioning that one of my very best friends is a Muslim. I served with him, and he is even more English than I am. We have talked about religion and are both agreed that differences over whether the Great Sky Fairy had one begotten son who was sent to the World to save sinners, or whether there is only one Great Sky Fairy and Muhammad is his messenger is simply not worth arguing about. To all the commentators on this thread who have made anti Muslim remarks, I would ask them to do as I do. Only judge people by their actions and behaviour, not by what they believe. I am not denying that there is a huge problem with Islamic extremists, but lumping all Muslims together as part of a murderous death-cult is ridiculous.

Finally, all this can be compared to someone who suffers from boils. Boils occasionally have to be lanced, which is messy, painful and sometimes quite spectacular. This does not provide any long-term relief as more boils will always emerge to take their place. This is the metaphor for military action but it is a temporary quick fix solution only. The only sure solution to the problem is to treat the blood disorder that is causing the boils with a course of prescribed medication. This is much more low-key. Boils will still occasionally have to be lanced, but in time the patient will become completely well. This is the metaphor for defeating the ideology that is causing the boils. The bottom line is that the only solution for Islamist extremism is for the faith of Islam to undergo a full reformation. This is where the real fight must take place and governments throughout the world must, in conjunction with the Muslim communities, develop and enact policies that will enable this reformation to take place.

[Andra]

"If you let the fight become one between us and them, then we will become them."

With all respect, Lawrence, that sounds like hippy mumbo jumbo. Oooohhhhmmmmm!

We are us and they are the baddies and never the twain shall meet.

[David Duff]

Richard, pause and think! You collect and save as many electronic communications as you can - zillions of them! You do NOT then spend pointless man-hours going through each and every one of them as you suggest. You wait until other 'humint' sources indicate a line of enquiry and then you go into your resource bank and conduct a *targeted* search. The point is that if you don't save the resource in the first place you're stuffed - and so are the potential victims.

No-one is suggesting that ALL Muslims are baddies! However, ALL Muslims must be treated as 'potential' baddies. That doesn't mean locking them all up, it just means that Muslim communities need to be watched and monitored - closely!

All of these security measures, of course, need to go hand in hand with measures designed to convince Muslims of the positive benefits of life in Britain - the 'good cop, bad cop' technique!

[Antisthenes]

SoD. I am happy to be a Billy no mates I detest the EU. Not the concept which arose from good intentions but like most good intention have not brought about good outcomes or that which was intended. Common purpose means constructing common institutions for specific purposes like NATO for instance or pooling resources temporarily to achieve a common goal not building a complete edifice that takes away our democracy and our sovereignty. That places unnecessary economic burden on all of us with another expensive layer of government that there is absolutely no need of. Our own domestic governments local and national drain the money out our pockets enough already and then mostly waste it. We should not just be getting rid of the EU we should also be reduce the size and powers of our own governments,

[Lawrence Duff]

Richard, I agree with most of your drift.

A couple of comments: -

Analysing "Big Data" isn't done with peeps sitting in a room sifting each bit of data. It's done with sophisticated neural network algorithms implemented in code that sift the metadata. These aren't perfect, but I guarantee you there are literally thousands of Western citizens alive today because of them.

I too know many Muslims through working across all my client base in London and the Thames valley. They too abhor the jihadists, to a man and woman that I've ever met and spoken about it with. And they are powerless and threatened by both the jihadists and the Western backlash; not a nice place to be.

If we throw our lot in with the strategy of a full frontal war, the West vs. the jihadists, then you're going to have to slaughter millions of those non-jihadist Muslims. Here's my analogy: -

We couldn't defeat the Nazi's without slaughtering millions of non-Nazi Germans. No-one devised a way of sending our tank divisions and aircraft to avoid Wehrmacht units and only to go for the blokes with black uniforms with lightning bolts on their collars, even though these blokes were clearly identifying themselves in such a way.

Jihadists in the West don't go strutting around in black uniforms with lightning bolts on their collars, so if you fight them here you're going to have to fight through the general ranks of non-jihadist Muslims. Hence the slaughter.

So the question is, how do you separate the jihadists from the non-jihadists? How could we have got the SS divisions and Nazi party to kindly go stand on this battlefield away from the rest of Germany so we could scuff them up there? Or better still, have them scuff themselves up somehow?

Well we did it - but then we let the opportunity slip through our hands. In fact we did even better. We also got the other bunch of Socialists, the ones with khaki uniforms and red stars on their collars, to go to the same separate place and kick the shit out of each other!

Instead of encouraging the Spanish Civil War go on and on, consuming all the class and race jihadists, we let it end. The playground had its circle, those outside were safe, and "fight fight fight" it was.

So our opportunity to separate the jihadists from the Muslims is to let them go to Syria. To encourage them to go to Syria. And make sure the Syrian war is hot hot hot. So they're too busy fighting each other than us. So they don't have the resources or inclination to send anyone back to attack us.

Otherwise, as said, the war will come to us. And without lightning bolts on their collars, we will do slaughter and become the beasts we despise.

SoD

[Lawrence Duff]

Andra,

We're all human, so we are them and they are us, in that sense.

What makes people different is found in others senses, for example, what they do.

And if you do what they do, then you are them and they are you, in that sense.

Is that not un-hippy and fairly reasonable?

SoD

[Richard]

David,
I totally agree that it would be completely impractical to go through the computer records of everyone in the country. Looking through it all ONLY becomes practical if, as you rightly say, the investigation is carefully targeted to a number of suspected individuals. My major concern here is that adequate safeguards are put in place to ensure that the privacy of ordinary members of the public is preserved and that any extra powers granted to the authorities are not used - or misused - for purposes that were not intended. This is absolutely vital because of the abuses of and assault on our democratic rights that have been taking place ever since Tony Blair was in office. By and large, my father's generation of political leaders were men of integrity. I wouldn't trust this lot further than I could throw them.

Lawrence, thanks for the heads-up on how the data is sifted. I too can say that I agree with most of your drift. I am not sure though that getting them all to go to the Middle East to achieve martyrdom fighting each other and Putin's lads is the whole answer though. The only way that this problem is going to be solved permanently is for a genuine Muslim reformation to take place. This must be driven from within the Muslim community and we must assist it in every way possible. What we must NOT do under any circumstances is alienate the moderates and drive them into the extremist camp, which, in their must be seen to be doing something kind of way, is precisely what our current political leaders are most likely to do. I am not calling for appeasement under any circumstances, but someone should tell dim Dave and whoever the next Septic Prez or Prezzette turns out to be, that it is never a good idea to try and fight fire by pouring petrol on it!

[Cuffleyburgers]

SoD - you ARE J.C Junker, and I claim my 10 pounds.

Go and have a plum brandy old chap it's past breakfast time.

[Cuffleyburgers]

SoD - " I guarantee you there are literally thousands of Western citizens alive today because of them." sounds like utter horlicks to me, you have no evidence whatsoever to justify that assertion other than occasional vague press releases about numbers of arrests under terror legislation the vast majority of which do not lead to convictions.

Are you for example including the blogger who was arrested for jokingly making reference to putting a bomb in east midlands airort a couple of years ago because it was closed due to snow?

Othewise I don't see how you can possibly reach your total of fearmongering bollocks!

Richard's post was admirably balanced and intelligent, and apart from not having any close muslim friends (I have no close friends at all, being a confirmed EU-outer, and therefore what SoD - presumably under the influence of some stimulant - refers to as a billy no-mates) I agree completely with his analysis.