Well, that's a bit unfair to Mr. Riccardo Cocciani and his fellow students of War Studies at King's College, London who have recently 'gamed' the deteriorating situation in the South and East China Seas as they struggle to work out whether or not war is likely. Alas, they think it is!
Anyway, he has written an interesting piece in The Telegraph describing how he and his fellow students 'gamed' the situation which gradually went from bad to worse to 'worser'! Not the least of the ghastly outcomes, apart from war between China and the USA, was North Korea trying to take advantage of the situation by attacking Japan.
I'm not able to comment on the likelihood of their forecast coming true but I do hope the Grand Panjandrums in the very many different nations involved are really thinking through the pros and cons of future developments. Well, a man may hope may he not even if experience tells him otherwise!
There won't be war in the south China Sea as it would take participation by the leaders of all concerned. At the moment, America has no commander in chief, so we're out. Besides, war can be bad for business. An option would be to make Japan and South Korea nuclear states. If all those assorted Asian zipper heads hate each other that bad, well then let's find out.
Posted by: Whitewall | Tuesday, 19 April 2016 at 13:04
I'm not as sanguine as you, Whiters, and in my view it only takes one to start a war as any German will tell you!
Posted by: David Duff | Tuesday, 19 April 2016 at 16:42
Whitewall, those little islands the Chinese are forming and placing runways would suggest China is prepared and preparing for war or is hoping the threat of war will make others turn their cheeks and succumb to them.
I think China could lose the gamble and there will be war.
Posted by: jimmy glesga | Wednesday, 20 April 2016 at 01:39
David
War with China??
In the next 5-10 years. Not likely.
25-50 years not inevitable but very possible.
Avoiding it without compromise will take some real diplomacy.
The biggest danger is the belief amoung the libs and others that a large conventional war is not possible. Since they don't see it as possible they will make no effort to prevent, and may even help provoke it.
Watch the Philippines. The US has formal and informal connections going back to 1899 that could pull us in to war.
On the good side, will probally no longer be around to enjoy the fire works.
Posted by: Hank | Wednesday, 20 April 2016 at 01:53
For your viewing pleasure.
https://youtu.be/LdX6zhv3eGs
I would think the last part has more testosterone than hardware, but thinking with testosterone is not unknown in these case.
Posted by: Hank | Wednesday, 20 April 2016 at 02:00
Crikey, Hank, I never thought of the Philippines as a martial state. And as you indicate, there is more than enough testosterone around all the countries involved to presage a grim future.
Posted by: David Duff | Thursday, 21 April 2016 at 08:02