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Thursday, 16 June 2016

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If you get things that you desire, there may be unforeseen and unpleasant consequences.......

just sayin'

Charles Krauthammer says if Brexit is successful it will become a messy divorce but probably a needed one. Our markets are all atwitter until then.

It seems to me that If Dave and Gideon really believe the dire warnings they are uttering, then they should have been uttered as arguments against having a referendum in the first place. The most charitable possible view is that they offered a referendum without bothering to think about it- itself a pretty damning incitement for a prime minister and chancellor. Otherwise they are flat out lying.
Further, in promising to bring immigration down to the tens of thousands Dave conceded that mass immigration is a bad thing. He knows or should have known, that there's nothing at all he can do about it whilst in the EU- so he made a rod for his own back. He could have gone to the ASI and used their argument that immigration is a wonderful thing- though I doubt the loss of green belt land they propose to go with would go down well. But he has chosen to take an indefensible position.
He's obviously done a lot of arm twisting to get support, and that will be resented by the ones who gave in as much as by the ones that didn't.

Mr Schaeuble said in the Spiegel interview two things that make for an interesting future: -

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spiegel-interview-with-wolfgang-schaeuble-on-brexit-a-1096999.html

"Schäuble: In response to Brexit, we couldn't simply call for more integration. That would be crude, many would rightfully wonder whether we politicians still hadn't understood. Even in the event that only a small majority of the British voters reject a withdrawal, we would have to see it as a wakeup call and a warning not to continue with business as usual. Either way, we have to take a serious look at reducing bureaucracy in Europe. And in some areas, we also need to find our way back to the member states assuming more autonomy, as the British are demanding.

SPIEGEL: Greater autonomy instead of deeper integration: that would contradict everything you have fought for in Europe to date. Which areas do you have in mind?

Schäuble: Not at all. A strong Europe is not a bureaucratised Europe. More autonomy and adherence to mutually agreed-upon rules are precisely the foundation we need. We must strengthen the EU in those areas where it offers true added value relative to national approaches. Just look at foreign policy or defence. What can an individual country achieve in these areas? We need the British if Europe is to punch at its proper weight and have a significant voice in the world."

"Schäuble: Europe will also work without Britain if necessary. At some point, the British will realise they have taken the wrong decision. And then we will accept them back one day, if that's what they want."

So, putting the two together ...

(1) Unless Remain win by a substantial margin, the EU will have to stop the project, deconstruct, and reconstruct with something new. Even a narrow victory by Remain cannot be ignored as a signal that direction must be changed by the EU.

(2) Britain would be invited back into the EU if Brexit goes tits up for us.

... Schaueble appears to be inviting Brexit, and almost relishing the change of direction that (he thinks) must follow in the EU, specifically, the end of the federal project and a realignment to the concept of loosely co-operating nation states.

Of course this is scattered amongst his diatribe about Brexit being a disaster etc., etc., but nevertheless, a rather unexpected narrative in the narrative.

The case for a narrow margin victory for Remain or Leave just got better.

In the case of narrow Remain, all's good, no business as usual from the EU, battle between nation states and EU preserved in stalemate.

In the case of narrow Leave, the UK constitution won't allow it as the Referendum was only advisory and Parliament, being Sovereign, has a majority of pro-EU MP's (btw, hahaha - how's that glorious British sovereignty feeling for you now?!).

Chalk dust is what we want, keep the two rats fighting in the bag.

SoD

No matter which way it goes, we should stand by for lots of vindictive triumphalism.

Re Leeds shooting:

he remainians had to find something to halt their decline in the polls.

As Junker the drunker famously said, when it gets serious you have to lie. What he didn't say is when you 've tried lying and it dosn't work, you have to start shooting. Cleverly staged, perhap the first thing thing Cameron has got right in the whole miserable campaign

SoD

Whilst the referendum result is "only advisory" to ignore it would indeed be a great folly. In short you'd be saying that the voters have no precedence over their elected representatives (who were put there by the voters in the first place)
Parliament could indeed overrule the will of the people, but not a single standing MP who voted for that would hold on to their seat at the next election. It would be carnage. I fear the Queen would be forced to dissolve parliament rather than go through that.

Cuffers, errr, are you blaming the shooting on a false flag operation by Remain?

SoD

Re false flag allegation- that the shooting itself was such seems vanishingly unlikely. That the murderer saying "Britain first" was made up seems far more likely.

A muslim murders 49 people in a club “in the name of ISIS”

– nothing to do with Islam.

A mentally ill man, with no interest in politics, alleged by a man who wasn’t there to have shouted the name of a tiny group with no connection to the EU referendum, kills a virtually unknown MP

– reflective of the entire Brexit campaign and all its supporters

Stay classy Maria Eagle & fellow Grauniaistas

Duff,

"... I will console myself with the knowledge that the careers and reputations of 'Dave 'n' George' will be trashed!"

I am not at all well-versed in the details of your referendum. But I wish to comment on your expectation for "consolation" -- it will likely be small.

As you probably know, we on the other side of the pond are facing a strong possibility of having an (as yet) unconvicted criminal for our next President. By tradition, such a person's reputation would certainly be trashed by now. Nevertheless, it is likely that her career remains unscathed, because our traditions as a society have been trashed instead.

TheBigHenry, the USA cleary have let the enemy in and you will have more atrocities until you take on board what Trump is saying irrespective if you vote for him. When you let a death cult establish itself then expect death.

jimmy glesga,

I heartily agree with you. Did you think I was referring to Trump as the "unconvicted criminal"? If so, you must have missed the gender of the pronoun in my phrase "her career remains unscathed".

Sod - it seems foolish to dismiss out of hand. The timing could not have been better, and for Cameron or more likely the Commission it would have been easy enough to arrange. They're playing for high stakes, even though they are utter buffoons.

We've all been expecting some sort of deus ex machina, maybe this is it.

Anyway got to go - I've an appointment for fitting for my new tin foil hat.

Today is Icelandic Indepedence Day!

Ottobock, who appears to be the manufacturer of virtually all medical equipment (e.g. wheelchairs, walkers, canes, wooden legs, etc.) is situated in Iceland!
I find that quite amazing.
Never dealt with a company in Iceland before, but there you go. We lead a quiet life Down Under and small things amuse us.
Up the Icelanders!!

We buy Icelandic yoghourt - who would thought they had cows?

And right on cue...http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/clinton-calls-for-rejection-of-bigotry-after-killing-of-british-lawmaker/ar-AAh9pPv?li=BBnb7Kz

"Never let a good crisis go to waste" said Obama's former chief of staff.

A Country Bumpkin speaks out: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO_huMTrCA4

So the Country Bumpkins now have their own radical extremist faction. Why am I not surprised?

What shall we call it and them? Cuntbumpism? Cuntbumpists?

I remember someone once told me that lightning strikes from the bottom up at the same time as the top down. As the electrons are busy building up in the clouds, so the protons are busy building up in the ground below, you just don't see the changes in the earth like you do the clouds. So if you ever feel your hair standing on end in a storm, best lie down and try to look small. Once one of the protons meets one of the electrons, the lightning process is unstoppable.

So it is when radical politics has its first terrorist moment, true or false. The denials pour in (see DM and Cuffers above), but the nagging doubt cannot be dispelled, least of all in the minds of the next bunch of psychotics emboldened into further action.

Let's hope against hope that by some miracle that this electron proton collision is unproductive. Although, imho, fat chance.

SoD

SoD, you should go and lie down in a dark room. I couldn't be bothered to listen to the whole of that statement but from what I did hear it seemed to me to be eminently respectful without any "extremism" at all. As far as we know now, the man who committed this atrocity was a loner with mental problems so don't go shouting "Fire" in a crowded building!

Hello SoD - WTF am I accused of denying? just pointing out the obvious.

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